西方流行居家办公，助推中国经济增长
近段时期，许多西方人一直居家工作。而中国的劳动大军已经重返工厂，助力“世界工厂”扩大电子产品出口，以满足日益增长的远程办公需求。
“出口增长之强劲远超所有人的预期。”TS Lombard董事总经理兼首席中国经济学家庄波说。诸如笔记本电脑、网络摄像头，甚至游戏机这类“居家办公”设备的出口在第二季度显著增长。“这些都是高附加值产品。”庄波说。
国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，今年第二季度中国经济重现生机，较去年同期增长3.2%，高于路透社调查预估中值2.5%。
是的，在第一季度同比下降6.8%之后，中国经济恢复增长。出人意料的是，如此大的反弹部分得益于出口的推动，尽管从纸面上看，出口数据似乎并没有那么亮眼。与去年同期相比，出口在第二季度仅增长0.3%。但庄波指出，考虑到一些分析师此前预计这一数据将接近-25%，这种转变着实令人惊叹。
根据中国海关的数据，今年上半年笔记本电脑出口增长9.1%，这几乎全部来自第二季度的贡献。医疗设备的出口也直线上升。在前六个月，“医疗器械”的出口增长了46%。随着工厂迅速重组生产线，开足马力来满足激增的需求，包括医用口罩在内的纺织品出口增长了32%。
“人们低估了中国的转向能力。”庄波指出，6月份的全国城镇调查失业率略有好转，较5月份的5.9%下降了0.2个百分点。“由于劳动力调配相当灵活，中国成功地避免了我们此前担心的大规模失业潮。”他说。
然而，除医疗器械和电子产品之外，中国其他的出口产品仍然相当疲软。事实上，第二季度GDP同比增长3.2%，抵消了中国其他产品出口的疲软。
国家统计局的数据显示，制造业和服务业增加值分别同比下降1.9%和1.6%。包括农业和采矿业在内的第一产业仅增长了0.9%。庄波表示，在某种程度上，第二季度的增长数字是中国去年第三和第四季度增长轨迹的延续。尽管在今年第一季度大幅下滑，但中国经济在2019年下半年的强势增长，足以推动它现在保持增长势头。
“除了出口之外，第二季度的经济增长还得益于中国政府对基础设施的投资。”庄波表示，这些投资应该有助于增强长期增长的可持续性——但程度有限。他补充说，到明年下半年，中国经济增速将稳定在5%，对于这个习惯于6-7%增长区间的经济大国来说，这是一个相对缓慢的速度。（财富中文网）
译者：任文科
近段时期，许多西方人一直居家工作。而中国的劳动大军已经重返工厂，助力“世界工厂”扩大电子产品出口，以满足日益增长的远程办公需求。
“出口增长之强劲远超所有人的预期。”TS Lombard董事总经理兼首席中国经济学家庄波说。诸如笔记本电脑、网络摄像头，甚至游戏机这类“居家办公”设备的出口在第二季度显著增长。“这些都是高附加值产品。”庄波说。
国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，今年第二季度中国经济重现生机，较去年同期增长3.2%，高于路透社调查预估中值2.5%。
是的，在第一季度同比下降6.8%之后，中国经济恢复增长。出人意料的是，如此大的反弹部分得益于出口的推动，尽管从纸面上看，出口数据似乎并没有那么亮眼。与去年同期相比，出口在第二季度仅增长0.3%。但庄波指出，考虑到一些分析师此前预计这一数据将接近-25%，这种转变着实令人惊叹。
根据中国海关的数据，今年上半年笔记本电脑出口增长9.1%，这几乎全部来自第二季度的贡献。医疗设备的出口也直线上升。在前六个月，“医疗器械”的出口增长了46%。随着工厂迅速重组生产线，开足马力来满足激增的需求，包括医用口罩在内的纺织品出口增长了32%。
“人们低估了中国的转向能力。”庄波指出，6月份的全国城镇调查失业率略有好转，较5月份的5.9%下降了0.2个百分点。“由于劳动力调配相当灵活，中国成功地避免了我们此前担心的大规模失业潮。”他说。
然而，除医疗器械和电子产品之外，中国其他的出口产品仍然相当疲软。事实上，第二季度GDP同比增长3.2%，抵消了中国其他产品出口的疲软。
国家统计局的数据显示，制造业和服务业增加值分别同比下降1.9%和1.6%。包括农业和采矿业在内的第一产业仅增长了0.9%。庄波表示，在某种程度上，第二季度的增长数字是中国去年第三和第四季度增长轨迹的延续。尽管在今年第一季度大幅下滑，但中国经济在2019年下半年的强势增长，足以推动它现在保持增长势头。
“除了出口之外，第二季度的经济增长还得益于中国政府对基础设施的投资。”庄波表示，这些投资应该有助于增强长期增长的可持续性——但程度有限。他补充说，到明年下半年，中国经济增速将稳定在5%，对于这个习惯于6-7%增长区间的经济大国来说，这是一个相对缓慢的速度。（财富中文网）
译者：任文科
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While much of the West has been working from home amid the coronavirus pandemic, China’s labor force has returned to factories—ramping up exports of electronics to feed the needs of a rising class of remote workers
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“Export growth is so much stronger than anyone could have expected,” said TS Lombard’s chief China economist, Bo Zhuang. Exports of “work from home” gadgets such as laptops, webcams and even gaming consoles increased during the second quarter. “These are high value-added products,” Zhuang said.
According to data released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy returned to growth in the second quarter this year, jumping 3.2% over the same period last year and exceeding the 2.5% predicted by a Reuters poll of economists.
China's return to growth, from a 6.8% contraction in the first quarter of 2020, was driven by the surprising strength of exports which, on paper, may not seem so impressive. Year-on-year, exports only increased 0.3%. But considering that some analysts predicted the figure would be closer to -25%, Zhuang says, the turnaround is incredible.
According to China’s customs office, exports of notebook computers increased 9.1% in the first half of the year, with the gains made almost entirely in the second quarter. The export of medical equipment has also skyrocketed. In the first six months, exports of “medical devices” increased 46%. Exports of textiles, which includes surgical masks, increased 32% as factories restructured to meet surging demand.
“People underestimate the ability of China to pivot,” Zhuang said, pointing to the slight contraction in China’s unemployment rate in June—down 0.2 percentage points from 5.9% in May. “Because labor deployment has been quite flexible, China has managed to avoid the mass layoffs we feared,” he said.
Apart from medical supplies and electronics, however, the rest of China’s exports have remained quite weak. In fact, the 3.5% year-on-year growth in GDP belies an enduring weakness across China’s industrial sectors.
Data from NBS shows the total value added of the manufacturing and services sectors decreased 1.9% and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively. The primary sector—including agriculture and mining—only grew 0.9%. To an extent, Zhuang says, the Q2 growth figure is reflective of gains China made in Q3 and Q4 last year. The economy had already grown far enough in the second half of 2019 to remain ahead now, despite the massive downturn in Q1 this year.
“Besides exports, China’s GDP growth was also buoyed by government investment in infrastructure,” Zhuang said, adding that the investment should make for more sustainable long-term growth—but to a limited degree. By the second half of next year, Zhuang says, China’s growth will have stabilized to 5%, a relatively slow pace for the economic powerhouse accustomed to growth in the 6-7% range.
