对于美国大银行，有一个好消息和两个坏消息
华尔街正做最坏的打算。
周二，摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行等多家大银行公布了二季度财报。但正如预期，最令人担忧的就是银行都在积攒贷款损失准备金，金额创下纪录。由于预计未来几个月的公共卫生事件会对贷款人造成冲击，摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行都为贷款违约预备了数十亿美元。
“我认为，现在能看到的只是美联储和政府的援助计划以及银行延期，暂时还没发现消费者的压力，”D.A.Davidson高级研究分析师大卫•康拉德告诉《财富》杂志。“但我认为银行的言下之意是‘危机来了’。”
贷款损失准备金“容易引发关注，而且面临风险的高达数十亿美元，但更值得关注的是银行面临着低利率、宏观环境比预期糟糕，以及与疫情发展连续超预期等不确定性，盈利环境也越发复杂，" Bankrate.com网站资深经济分析师马克•哈姆里克在一份报告中告诉《财富》杂志。
美国最大的银行摩根大通拨出104.7亿美元用于覆盖贷款损失。这与今年早些时候首席执行官杰米•戴蒙在年度致股东信中的预期也保持一致，即最好的情况下，疫情也会导致“类似2008年全球金融危机的压力”
现在，银行业都在警告不确定性。首席执行官戴蒙警告称：“尽管近期有些宏观经济数据比较积极，政府也采取了重大果断的行动，但经济未来走向仍存在诸多不确定性。”
好消息
银行巨头摩根大通也给投资者带来巨大的惊喜：营收超过预期，达到330亿美元，较去年同期增长15%。（与此同时，利润下降了50%至47亿美元）。
哪项数据最突出？摩根大通宣布固定收益交易创纪录地收入73亿美元。交易总收入增长79%，达到97亿美元。危机期间市场大幅波动，加上美联储不断向市场注入流动性并购买企业债，“投资银行和资本市场相当活跃，大型银行也增加了资本金，”康拉德指出。
然而，摩根大通等银行管理层警告称，交易带来的巨额收入无法维持，“指导意见是类似情况肯定不会持续，”康拉德说。
银行为迎接W型复苏做财务方面的准备，但康拉德等分析师指出，尽管管理层预计经济复苏不会非常糟糕，但“为W型复苏做准备时任何异动都需要更多储备。”尤其随着美国冠状病毒新病例数激增，银行对资产负债表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一样”。
值得欣慰的是，花旗集团也给华尔街带来惊喜，收入198亿美元（同比增长约5%），利润13亿美元（同比下降73%），两个数据均超过预期。花旗在市场和证券领域的收入达到69亿美元，增长48%，其中最大一块来自固定收益交易，较去年同期增长68%。
一个坏消息
与此同时，富国银行情况“有点糟”，康拉德表示。“富国银行没有投资银行和交易收入补偿，而且准备金不足，只能扩大准备金规模。”
该行公布，当季亏损24亿美元低于预期，而收入较去年同期（178亿美元）下降约17.6%。应对方面，富国银行首先宣布派息削减至0.10美元。首席执行官查理•沙夫也未掩饰：“我们对二季度的业绩和减少派息感到非常失望。与上个季度的预期相比，如今对经济衰退持续时间和严重程度的看法非常悲观，因此二季度增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，”他在公布业绩时表示。
还有一个坏消息
然而，即便是盈利超过预期的两家银行，消费者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消费者和社区银行收入下降了9%，花旗集团则下降了10%。
“两家都没提消费者的收入，所以应该是负面居多。我认为，考虑到各种政府援助项目，资本市场（收入）与经济几乎脱节，也许消费者层面更能体现经济周期里的收入状况，”康拉德认为。从这个意义上说，“我认为未来几个季度消费者收入将承压，这可能是关键风险因素，决定了未来业绩，”他说。
高盛的分析师们预期最为悲观，预计二季度银行盈利将下降69%。尽管周二公布财报时康拉德等分析师表示“受到鼓舞”，但他也指出，风险因素主要集中在消费者收入趋势以及“商业银行逾期和非应计贷款激增”。
下午花旗集团和富国银行股价下跌，摩根大通则上涨了约0.5%。今年三家公司都处于亏损状态。（财富中文网）
译者：Feb
华尔街正做最坏的打算。
周二，摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行等多家大银行公布了二季度财报。但正如预期，最令人担忧的就是银行都在积攒贷款损失准备金，金额创下纪录。由于预计未来几个月的公共卫生事件会对贷款人造成冲击，摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行都为贷款违约预备了数十亿美元。
“我认为，现在能看到的只是美联储和政府的援助计划以及银行延期，暂时还没发现消费者的压力，”D.A.Davidson高级研究分析师大卫•康拉德告诉《财富》杂志。“但我认为银行的言下之意是‘危机来了’。”
贷款损失准备金“容易引发关注，而且面临风险的高达数十亿美元，但更值得关注的是银行面临着低利率、宏观环境比预期糟糕，以及与疫情发展连续超预期等不确定性，盈利环境也越发复杂，" Bankrate.com网站资深经济分析师马克•哈姆里克在一份报告中告诉《财富》杂志。
美国最大的银行摩根大通拨出104.7亿美元用于覆盖贷款损失。这与今年早些时候首席执行官杰米•戴蒙在年度致股东信中的预期也保持一致，即最好的情况下，疫情也会导致“类似2008年全球金融危机的压力”
现在，银行业都在警告不确定性。首席执行官戴蒙警告称：“尽管近期有些宏观经济数据比较积极，政府也采取了重大果断的行动，但经济未来走向仍存在诸多不确定性。”
好消息
银行巨头摩根大通也给投资者带来巨大的惊喜：营收超过预期，达到330亿美元，较去年同期增长15%。（与此同时，利润下降了50%至47亿美元）。
哪项数据最突出？摩根大通宣布固定收益交易创纪录地收入73亿美元。交易总收入增长79%，达到97亿美元。危机期间市场大幅波动，加上美联储不断向市场注入流动性并购买企业债，“投资银行和资本市场相当活跃，大型银行也增加了资本金，”康拉德指出。
然而，摩根大通等银行管理层警告称，交易带来的巨额收入无法维持，“指导意见是类似情况肯定不会持续，”康拉德说。
银行为迎接W型复苏做财务方面的准备，但康拉德等分析师指出，尽管管理层预计经济复苏不会非常糟糕，但“为W型复苏做准备时任何异动都需要更多储备。”尤其随着美国冠状病毒新病例数激增，银行对资产负债表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一样”。
值得欣慰的是，花旗集团也给华尔街带来惊喜，收入198亿美元（同比增长约5%），利润13亿美元（同比下降73%），两个数据均超过预期。花旗在市场和证券领域的收入达到69亿美元，增长48%，其中最大一块来自固定收益交易，较去年同期增长68%。
一个坏消息
与此同时，富国银行情况“有点糟”，康拉德表示。“富国银行没有投资银行和交易收入补偿，而且准备金不足，只能扩大准备金规模。”
该行公布，当季亏损24亿美元低于预期，而收入较去年同期（178亿美元）下降约17.6%。应对方面，富国银行首先宣布派息削减至0.10美元。首席执行官查理•沙夫也未掩饰：“我们对二季度的业绩和减少派息感到非常失望。与上个季度的预期相比，如今对经济衰退持续时间和严重程度的看法非常悲观，因此二季度增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，”他在公布业绩时表示。
还有一个坏消息
然而，即便是盈利超过预期的两家银行，消费者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消费者和社区银行收入下降了9%，花旗集团则下降了10%。
“两家都没提消费者的收入，所以应该是负面居多。我认为，考虑到各种政府援助项目，资本市场（收入）与经济几乎脱节，也许消费者层面更能体现经济周期里的收入状况，”康拉德认为。从这个意义上说，“我认为未来几个季度消费者收入将承压，这可能是关键风险因素，决定了未来业绩，”他说。
高盛的分析师们预期最为悲观，预计二季度银行盈利将下降69%。尽管周二公布财报时康拉德等分析师表示“受到鼓舞”，但他也指出，风险因素主要集中在消费者收入趋势以及“商业银行逾期和非应计贷款激增”。
下午花旗集团和富国银行股价下跌，摩根大通则上涨了约0.5%。今年三家公司都处于亏损状态。（财富中文网）
译者：Feb
Wall Street is preparing for the worst.
A slew of big banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, reported earnings for the 2nd quarter on Tuesday. But as expected, the biggest concerning sign was the record amounts of loan loss provisions the banks are building to hunker down: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reserved billions for future loan defaults, as banks are anticipating the coronavirus crisis will deal a blow to borrowers in the coming months.
"I think what we’re seeing right now is [with] both the Fed and the government programs coupled with deferrals at the banks, we’re not seeing the consumer stress yet," David Konrad, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, suggests to Fortune. "But I think what the banks are saying is, 'It’s coming.'"
While the loan loss provisions are "the headline grabber and for good reason given the billions of dollars at stake, the earnings environment for banks is also complicated by low interest rates, a worse-than-expected macro environment and uncertainty associated with COVID-19 which continues to surprise in a negative way," Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick told Fortune in a note.
JPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank, set aside $10.47 billion to cover loan losses. The provision fits with what CEO Jamie Dimon prophesied in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year: best case, the pandemic will create "financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008."
Now, banks are warning of uncertainty: CEO Dimon cautioned, "Despite some recent positive macroeconomic data and significant, decisive government action, we still face much uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Dimon said in the earnings release.
The good
But the bank titan also gave investors a big surprise: JPMorgan topped revenue estimates, reporting $33 billion, up 15% from the year-ago quarter. (Profits for the bank, meanwhile, dropped over 50% to $4.7 billion).
One standout figure? The bank reported record fixed income trading revenue of $7.3 billion—and total trading revenues were up 79% at $9.7 billion. Massive volatility in the markets amid the crisis, plus an ever-accommodating Fed injecting liquidity in the market and purchasing corporate bonds, has "just created this backdrop of a lot of investment banking and capital markets activity, and almost an accretive capital raise for the bigger banks," notes Konrad.
However, management at banks like JPMorgan have warned the massive revenues from trading won't be sustainable—"The guidance was certainly that that’s not going to continue," Konrad says.
The banks are preparing their balance sheets for a W-shaped recovery, but analysts like Konrad note that while management likely don't anticipate the recovery will go that poorly, "Any variation toward a W would create more reserves going forward." Especially with new cases of the coronavirus spiking across the country, the confidence banks have in their shored-up balance sheets might be "a completely different story."
Citigroup also happily surprised the Street, reporting revenues of $19.8 billion (up roughly 5% from last year) and $1.3 billion in profits (down 73% from a year ago), both above expectations. The bank's markets and securities revenues hit $6.9 billion, up 48%, with the lion's share coming from fixed income trading, up 68% from the year-ago period.
The bad
But Wells Fargo, on the other hand, was "a bit of a mess," Konrad remarks. "They don't have the investment banking and trading offsets, and they were behind in the reserves and had to take a much bigger reserve."
The bank reported a below-estimates $2.4 billion loss for the quarter, while revenues fell roughly 17.6% from the year-ago quarter (reporting $17.8 billion). To boot, the bank announced it will cut its dividend to $0.10. And CEO Charlie Scharf didn't sugar coat it: "We are extremely disappointed in both our second quarter results and our intent to reduce our dividend. Our view of the length and severity of the economic downturn has deteriorated considerably from the assumptions used last quarter, which drove the $8.4 billion addition to our credit loss reserve in the second quarter," he said in the earnings release.
The ugly
Yet even for the two banks that beat earnings estimates, consumer revenues slumped: JPMorgan's consumer and community banking revenues fell 9%, while Citigroup's dropped 10%.
"They both missed on consumer revenues, so that's kind of the opposite effect—I think the capital markets [revenue] was almost a disconnect with the economy given all the government programs, and maybe the consumer side was a little bit more reflective on the revenue side of where we’re at in the economy," Konrad suggests. In that sense, "I think the consumer revenue will weigh on the next couple quarters, so that’s probably the risk factor of otherwise really strong results," he says.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs were expecting the worst: the firm estimated earnings for banks to decline by 69% in the 2nd quarter. And while some analysts like Konrad walked away from earnings on Tuesday feeling "encouraged," he notes the risk factors are concentrated in consumer revenue trends and "the commercial past-dues and non-accruals that jumped up."
Citigroup and Wells Fargo's stocks were down in afternoon trading, while JPMorgan traded up about 0.5%. All three are deeply in the red for the year.
