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裁员数量居高不下,美国经济反弹乏力

裁员数量居高不下,美国经济反弹乏力

美联社 2020年06月28日
对于那些预计失业金领取人数将锐减的分析师来说,这些数字让其感到惊讶和失望,因为各州正逐渐重启其经济,而企业则在召回下岗员工。

全美企业因疫情关停三个月之后,美国雇主依然在大量地取消工作岗位。这一趋势意味着衰退后的恢复将是一个缓慢而又漫长的过程。

美国政府称,六月第二周首次申领失业救助金的人数为150万,几乎没有下降,但低于3月曾出现的700万峰值,也是该数字连续第11周出现下滑。然而,这个数字依然是疫情前最高纪录的两倍多,而领取失业救助金的总人数依然达到了2050万这一天文数字。

对于那些预计失业金领取人数将锐减的分析师来说,这些数字让其感到惊讶和失望,因为各州正逐渐重启其经济,而企业则在召回下岗员工。在看到该数据之后,人们还担心最近的裁员可能意味着工作岗位的永久消失,原因是为了响应政府的关停令,各大公司对其业务进行了重组,而不是暂时削减业务规模。

牛津经济研究所首席美国经济师格里高利•达科称,该报告“告诉我们,要治愈经济衰退期间岗位消失造成的伤疤,所需时间将超出我们的预期。”

与此同时,尽管数据回答了很多有关市场就业现状的问题,但其引发的新疑问也不在少数。失业金领取人数通常反映了裁员的节奏。然而,这些数字并未说明当前有多少能够抵消这些损失的新招聘岗位数量。例如在5月,雇主新增了250万个工作岗位,这一增长着实出乎分析师的意料,因为申请失业救助金的人数依然如此之高。

一些可能的因素帮助解释了为什么在企业逐渐重新开业以及重新雇佣此前被解雇员工的同时,失业救助申领人数依然如此之高的原因。其中一个原因在于,很多直接面向客户的业务,从餐馆和电影院到健身房和赌场,依然未能完全运转。有鉴于此,一些公司仍在削减岗位。

例如路易斯安娜州的赌场仅开放了一半的接待能力。但在该州经营五家赌场的Boyd Gaming Corp.已经通知其1500名员工,由于公司财务亏损日益严重,这些员工可能会在7月初丢掉饭碗。

在一些受影响尤为严重的领域,例如酒店和旅游行业,很多公司如今都在削减白领员工,因为其业务依然远低于疫情前的水平。本周希尔顿酒店称,公司将削减全球22%的员工,约2100个岗位。

Opportunity Insights汇总的数据显示,尽管美国经济的主要推手消费支出正逐渐走出4月中旬的低谷,但该领域依然远低于疫情前水平。这一趋势可能会迫使一些成功渡过最初关停期的公司发生改变。例如,AT&T曾称,本周公司计划在未来几周之内裁掉3400名技术和文职人员。公司还计划永久性地关闭250家移动以及Mobility and Cricket Wireless店面。

阿普约恩研究所高级经济师布拉德•荷西贝恩说:“我们开始看到更多高技能岗位的损失,而且这些岗位更加难以恢复。”

一些州可能依然在审核数周或数月前所积压的失业救助金申请。

居住在奥兰多附近吉斯米的科琳娜•库克上周刚刚收到其第一份失业救助金,她4月中旬就已下岗。28岁的库克于9月搬到了这个地区,担任沃尔特迪士尼的3-D模型师,合约期限18个月。该工作涉及雕刻角色原型,然后用3-D打印机打印。她在迪士尼乐园关闭后便失去了工作。

她收到了来自于佛罗里达州的最低州失业救助金,一周125美元,因为该州没有她此前在新泽西州收入的记录,但她说自己已经从那家公司上载、邮寄和传真了自己的文件。如果她此前的收入信息能够得到有效采信,那么她的救助金将增加一倍多。不过,她很感激额外获得的600美元联邦失业救助金,她可以用这些钱来支付一些账单。

她说,应对州政府的官僚主义“令人倍感压力”。

牛津经济研究所的达科称,他依然预计即将于7月初发布的6月工作报告会再次出现招聘人数的上升,但这些数据十分难以预测。他说,每个月都有上千万人失去工作或找到工作,也让工作市场走向的预测工作变得更加困难。

5月的工作报告显示,经济损失可能已经触底反弹。失业率从14.7%下滑至依然较高的13.3%

即便如此,近2100万民众已被官方认定为失业人群,其中包括那些政府称在5月被错误地划分为在岗人群的数量,以及失去工作但并未寻找新工作的人。经济学家估计,有3250万人失去了工作。

报告显示,另有76万人上周通过一个针对个体户和零工的新计划,申请了失业救助金,也让这些人第一次获得了领取救助金的机会。这些数字并未根据季节性变化进行调整,因此政府并未将他们纳入官方统计的数字中。

最近其他一些数据更为鼓舞人心,它们显示,关停令的放松已经点燃了消费者的需求。尽管大多数经济指标依然远低于疫情前水平,但一些分析师质问,最近获得的进步是否可以持续,尤其是在病毒回归的今天。

政府上周二称,上个月的零售与餐厅销售额跃升了近18%,同时也提到了前两个月一些创纪录的跌幅。然而,零售购买额与往年的差距依然达到了可观的6%。

消费支出出现一定程度反弹的一个重要原因在于政府的救助计划,例如一次性的1200美元刺激性救助金以及一周600美元的联邦补充失业救助金,这些都帮助抵消了被裁美国员工的收入损失。然而,几乎所有的刺激性钱款都已经发放完毕,而且联邦补充失业救助金也将于7月31日到期。

美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔周二在向参议院委员会所做的证词中称:“最近,一些指标显示经济活动正趋于稳定,而且在某些领域出现了温和反弹。”然而,“在公众坚信疾病得到控制之前,经济难以得到全面的恢复。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

全美企业因疫情关停三个月之后,美国雇主依然在大量地取消工作岗位。这一趋势意味着衰退后的恢复将是一个缓慢而又漫长的过程。

美国政府称,六月第二周首次申领失业救助金的人数为150万,几乎没有下降,但低于3月曾出现的700万峰值,也是该数字连续第11周出现下滑。然而,这个数字依然是疫情前最高纪录的两倍多,而领取失业救助金的总人数依然达到了2050万这一天文数字。

对于那些预计失业金领取人数将锐减的分析师来说,这些数字让其感到惊讶和失望,因为各州正逐渐重启其经济,而企业则在召回下岗员工。在看到该数据之后,人们还担心最近的裁员可能意味着工作岗位的永久消失,原因是为了响应政府的关停令,各大公司对其业务进行了重组,而不是暂时削减业务规模。

牛津经济研究所首席美国经济师格里高利•达科称,该报告“告诉我们,要治愈经济衰退期间岗位消失造成的伤疤,所需时间将超出我们的预期。”

与此同时,尽管数据回答了很多有关市场就业现状的问题,但其引发的新疑问也不在少数。失业金领取人数通常反映了裁员的节奏。然而,这些数字并未说明当前有多少能够抵消这些损失的新招聘岗位数量。例如在5月,雇主新增了250万个工作岗位,这一增长着实出乎分析师的意料,因为申请失业救助金的人数依然如此之高。

一些可能的因素帮助解释了为什么在企业逐渐重新开业以及重新雇佣此前被解雇员工的同时,失业救助申领人数依然如此之高的原因。其中一个原因在于,很多直接面向客户的业务,从餐馆和电影院到健身房和赌场,依然未能完全运转。有鉴于此,一些公司仍在削减岗位。

例如路易斯安娜州的赌场仅开放了一半的接待能力。但在该州经营五家赌场的Boyd Gaming Corp.已经通知其1500名员工,由于公司财务亏损日益严重,这些员工可能会在7月初丢掉饭碗。

在一些受影响尤为严重的领域,例如酒店和旅游行业,很多公司如今都在削减白领员工,因为其业务依然远低于疫情前的水平。本周希尔顿酒店称,公司将削减全球22%的员工,约2100个岗位。

Opportunity Insights汇总的数据显示,尽管美国经济的主要推手消费支出正逐渐走出4月中旬的低谷,但该领域依然远低于疫情前水平。这一趋势可能会迫使一些成功渡过最初关停期的公司发生改变。例如,AT&T曾称,本周公司计划在未来几周之内裁掉3400名技术和文职人员。公司还计划永久性地关闭250家移动以及Mobility and Cricket Wireless店面。

阿普约恩研究所高级经济师布拉德•荷西贝恩说:“我们开始看到更多高技能岗位的损失,而且这些岗位更加难以恢复。”

一些州可能依然在审核数周或数月前所积压的失业救助金申请。

居住在奥兰多附近吉斯米的科琳娜•库克上周刚刚收到其第一份失业救助金,她4月中旬就已下岗。28岁的库克于9月搬到了这个地区,担任沃尔特迪士尼的3-D模型师,合约期限18个月。该工作涉及雕刻角色原型,然后用3-D打印机打印。她在迪士尼乐园关闭后便失去了工作。

她收到了来自于佛罗里达州的最低州失业救助金,一周125美元,因为该州没有她此前在新泽西州收入的记录,但她说自己已经从那家公司上载、邮寄和传真了自己的文件。如果她此前的收入信息能够得到有效采信,那么她的救助金将增加一倍多。不过,她很感激额外获得的600美元联邦失业救助金,她可以用这些钱来支付一些账单。

她说,应对州政府的官僚主义“令人倍感压力”。

牛津经济研究所的达科称,他依然预计即将于7月初发布的6月工作报告会再次出现招聘人数的上升,但这些数据十分难以预测。他说,每个月都有上千万人失去工作或找到工作,也让工作市场走向的预测工作变得更加困难。

5月的工作报告显示,经济损失可能已经触底反弹。失业率从14.7%下滑至依然较高的13.3%

即便如此,近2100万民众已被官方认定为失业人群,其中包括那些政府称在5月被错误地划分为在岗人群的数量,以及失去工作但并未寻找新工作的人。经济学家估计,有3250万人失去了工作。

报告显示,另有76万人上周通过一个针对个体户和零工的新计划,申请了失业救助金,也让这些人第一次获得了领取救助金的机会。这些数字并未根据季节性变化进行调整,因此政府并未将他们纳入官方统计的数字中。

最近其他一些数据更为鼓舞人心,它们显示,关停令的放松已经点燃了消费者的需求。尽管大多数经济指标依然远低于疫情前水平,但一些分析师质问,最近获得的进步是否可以持续,尤其是在病毒回归的今天。

政府上周二称,上个月的零售与餐厅销售额跃升了近18%,同时也提到了前两个月一些创纪录的跌幅。然而,零售购买额与往年的差距依然达到了可观的6%。

消费支出出现一定程度反弹的一个重要原因在于政府的救助计划,例如一次性的1200美元刺激性救助金以及一周600美元的联邦补充失业救助金,这些都帮助抵消了被裁美国员工的收入损失。然而,几乎所有的刺激性钱款都已经发放完毕,而且联邦补充失业救助金也将于7月31日到期。

美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔周二在向参议院委员会所做的证词中称:“最近,一些指标显示经济活动正趋于稳定,而且在某些领域出现了温和反弹。”然而,“在公众坚信疾病得到控制之前,经济难以得到全面的恢复。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Three months after the viral outbreak shut down businesses across the country, U.S. employers are still shedding jobs at a heavy rate, a trend that points to a slow and prolonged recovery from the recession.

The number of laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits barely fell last week to 1.5 million, the government said Thursday. That was down from a peak of nearly 7 million in March, and it marked an 11th straight weekly drop. But the number is still more than twice the record high that existed before the pandemic. And the total number of people receiving jobless aid remains a lofty 20.5 million.

The figures surprised and disappointed analysts who had expected far fewer people to seek unemployment aid as states increasingly reopen their economies and businesses recall some laid-off people back to work. The data also raised concerns that some recent layoffs may reflect permanent losses as companies restructure their businesses, rather than temporary cuts in response to government-ordered closures.

The report is “telling us that the scars from the job losses in the recession will be longer-lasting than we expected,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

At the same time, Thursday's figures may have raised as many questions about the state of the job market as they answered. Jobless claims generally tracks the pace of layoffs. But they provide little information about how much hiring is occurring that would offset those losses. In May, for example, employers added 2.5 million jobs — an increase that caught analysts off-guard because the number of applications for unemployment aid was still so high.

Some likely factors help explain why applications for jobless benefits remain so high even as businesses increasingly reopen and rehire some laid-off workers. For one thing, many businesses that deal face-to-face with customers — from restaurants and movie theaters to gyms and casinos — remain strictly limited to less-than-full capacity. Some of those establishments are still cutting jobs as a result.

Casinos in Louisiana, for example, can open at half-capacity. But Boyd Gaming Corp., which operates five casinos in the state, has informed 1,500 of its workers that with financial losses mounting, they could be laid off by early July.

And in some especially hard-hit sectors, like the hotel and travel industries, corporations are now slashing white-collar workers because their business remains far below pre-pandemic levels. This week, Hilton Hotels said it would cut 22% of its corporate global workforce — about 2,100 jobs.

Although consumer spending, the primary driver of the U.S. economy, is recovering from its low in mid-April, it remains far below its pre-pandemic level, according to data compiled by Opportunity Insights. That trend may be forcing changes at some companies that managed to withstand the initial shutdowns. AT&T, for instance, said this week that it plans to cut 3,400 technical and clerical workers over the next few weeks. It also plans to permanently close 250 of its Mobility and Cricket Wireless stores.

“We’re starting to see more job losses among higher-skilled positions that are harder to recall," said Brad Hershbein, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute.

And some states may still be clearing backlogs of applications from weeks or months ago.

Corinne Cook, who lives in Kissimmee, near Orlando, just received her first unemployment payment last week, after being laid-off from her job in mid-April. Cook, 28, moved to the area in September for an 18-month contract position as a 3-D modeler for Walt Disney, a job involving sculpting character prototypes that were printed on 3-D printers. She lost her job when the parks closed down.

She's receiving the minimum state unemployment benefit from Florida, $125 a week, because the state has no record of her prior earnings in New Jersey, even though she said she has uploaded, mailed and faxed her documents from her job there. If her previous earnings were properly credited, her state benefits would more than double. She is grateful, though, for the extra $600 in federal unemployment benefits, which have allowed her to pay some bills.

Dealing with the state's bureaucracy "was very stressful,” she said.

Daco of Oxford Economics said he still expects the June jobs report, to be released in early July, to show another hiring gain. But these figures will be particularly hard to forecast. Tens of millions of people may be flowing in and out of work each month, he noted, making it much more difficult to forecast where the job market is headed.

The jobs report for May had suggested that the damage might have bottomed out. The unemployment rate declined from 14.7% to a still-high 13.3%.

Even so, nearly 21 million people are officially classified as unemployed. And including people the government said had been erroneously categorized as employed in May and those who lost jobs but didn’t look for new ones, 32.5 million people are out of work, economists estimate.

Thursday’s report showed that an additional 760,000 people applied for jobless benefits last week under a new program for self-employed and gig workers that made them eligible for aid for the first time. These figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal variations, so the government doesn’t include them in the official count.

Other recent data have been more encouraging and suggest that the lifting of shutdown orders has sparked some pent-up demand from consumers. Most economic gauges remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, though, and some analysts question whether the recent gains can be sustained, especially if the virus were to surge back.

Last month, retail and restaurant sales jumped nearly 18%, the government said Tuesday, retracing some of the record plunges of the previous two months. Still, retail purchases remain a sizable 6% below their year-ago levels.

One key reason why consumer spending has somewhat rebounded is that government aid programs, from one-time $1,200 stimulus checks to $600-a-week in supplemental federal unemployment aid, have helped offset the loss of income for laid-off Americans. Yet nearly all the stimulus checks have been issued. And the supplemental federal jobless aid is set to expire July 31.

“Recently, some indicators have pointed to a stabilization, and in some areas a modest rebound, in economic activity,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday in testimony to a Senate committee. Yet “until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely.”

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