广告捞金大户Alphabet和Facebook盈利不佳，未来更糟？
谷歌母公司Alphabet和Facebook于本周证实，其业务受到了新冠疫情的严重冲击。
广告主大幅削减支出，使两家科技巨头饱尝现实的苦果。在它们公布利润报告时，投资者就看到了实际的损失。
随着亚洲几个国家实施居家令后，欧洲和美国也相继跟进，而广告支出下降的影响则在第一季度中期开始显现。分析师预计，第二季度将进一步迎来需求减少的全面重击。
据投资银行贝尔德公司分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安表示，这是自2008年金融危机以来“他们首次遭遇重大经济混乱”。他还补充说，当前的危机来得更迅猛。
Alphabet和Facebook都是数字广告的捞金大户。过去十年间，这两家公司的数字广告业务增长惊人，而这次出现的低迷预期可谓重大转折。
贝尔德公司预测，Alphabet公布的第一季度收入将为338亿美元（不计向发布商支付的费用），较去年同期增长15％，而去年的同期增长则为19％。投资银行机构预计，第二季度的营收增长仍将进一步放缓至1%，而去年同期为21%。
至于Facebook，贝尔德说其第一季度的收入实际上将增长16%，达到175亿美元，尽管这比去年26%的同期增长要少得多。贝尔德说，Facebook第二季度的销售额将增长5%，而去年同期则增长28%。
Alphabet旅游广告的销售额向来很大，再加上依赖中小企业，因此感受到的痛楚也将比Facebook更剧烈。贝尔德预计，一些航空公司和酒店将会完全砍掉线上广告预算。
数据营销软件公司Zeta Global表示，3月各行各业的在线广告支出预计将大幅减少，较2月下降15%至20%。
虽然增长放缓，但与大多数依赖广告业务的公司相比，Alphabet和谷歌还是较不易受到经济衰退的影响。Zeta Global公司表示，疫情期间活跃的企业会更倾向于追随谷歌和Facebook，因为这两家公司的广告覆盖面极广，针对性极强。
市场研究公司MoffettNathanson的分析师表示，由于企业削减预算，他们预测推特和Snap等较小的公司受到的打击最为沉重——这两家公司第一季度的财务表现比预计的还要糟糕，虽然Facebook和谷歌也“无法幸免”。
上月，Facebook警告称，受疫情影响，其广告业务“疲软”。而Alphabet的首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊在发给员工的备忘录中则称，由于账务压力，今年余下的时间里谷歌将放缓招聘脚步。
Facebook表示，虽然广告业务陷入低迷，但用户却比任何时候都更频繁地使用其产品。分析师认为，随着疫情期间越来越多的企业需要远程完成大量工作，Google Cloud也越发受到追捧。企业可以把数据存放在Google Cloud中，并通过互联网访问。
毫无疑问，投资者将会仔细研究谷歌和Facebook的营收，以评估整个数字广告行业的健康状况。
eMarketer的分析师妮可·佩林在最近的一份简报中写道：“Alphabet在美国及全球数字广告市场中都占有很大的份额，其收益报告将有助于我们了解第二季度及今年余下时间里更广泛的数字广告行情。”
分析师料想，不会存在第二波新冠疫情或长期衰退，预计数字广告支出将在今年后期缓慢回升，并持续到明年。贝尔德的分析师塞巴斯蒂安也表示，由于假期即将来临，第四季度对广告主和电子商务来说向来举足轻重，将是对消费者是否愿意再次花钱的真正“测试”。
“想要回到先前的好日子，这种事在2020年发生的可能性较小，2021年的可能性较大。”他说。 （财富中文网）
译者：李耀和
谷歌母公司Alphabet和Facebook于本周证实，其业务受到了新冠疫情的严重冲击。
广告主大幅削减支出，使两家科技巨头饱尝现实的苦果。在它们公布利润报告时，投资者就看到了实际的损失。
随着亚洲几个国家实施居家令后，欧洲和美国也相继跟进，而广告支出下降的影响则在第一季度中期开始显现。分析师预计，第二季度将进一步迎来需求减少的全面重击。
据投资银行贝尔德公司分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安表示，这是自2008年金融危机以来“他们首次遭遇重大经济混乱”。他还补充说，当前的危机来得更迅猛。
Alphabet和Facebook都是数字广告的捞金大户。过去十年间，这两家公司的数字广告业务增长惊人，而这次出现的低迷预期可谓重大转折。
贝尔德公司预测，Alphabet公布的第一季度收入将为338亿美元（不计向发布商支付的费用），较去年同期增长15％，而去年的同期增长则为19％。投资银行机构预计，第二季度的营收增长仍将进一步放缓至1%，而去年同期为21%。
至于Facebook，贝尔德说其第一季度的收入实际上将增长16%，达到175亿美元，尽管这比去年26%的同期增长要少得多。贝尔德说，Facebook第二季度的销售额将增长5%，而去年同期则增长28%。
Alphabet旅游广告的销售额向来很大，再加上依赖中小企业，因此感受到的痛楚也将比Facebook更剧烈。贝尔德预计，一些航空公司和酒店将会完全砍掉线上广告预算。
数据营销软件公司Zeta Global表示，3月各行各业的在线广告支出预计将大幅减少，较2月下降15%至20%。
虽然增长放缓，但与大多数依赖广告业务的公司相比，Alphabet和谷歌还是较不易受到经济衰退的影响。Zeta Global公司表示，疫情期间活跃的企业会更倾向于追随谷歌和Facebook，因为这两家公司的广告覆盖面极广，针对性极强。
市场研究公司MoffettNathanson的分析师表示，由于企业削减预算，他们预测推特和Snap等较小的公司受到的打击最为沉重——这两家公司第一季度的财务表现比预计的还要糟糕，虽然Facebook和谷歌也“无法幸免”。
上月，Facebook警告称，受疫情影响，其广告业务“疲软”。而Alphabet的首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊在发给员工的备忘录中则称，由于账务压力，今年余下的时间里谷歌将放缓招聘脚步。
Facebook表示，虽然广告业务陷入低迷，但用户却比任何时候都更频繁地使用其产品。分析师认为，随着疫情期间越来越多的企业需要远程完成大量工作，Google Cloud也越发受到追捧。企业可以把数据存放在Google Cloud中，并通过互联网访问。
毫无疑问，投资者将会仔细研究谷歌和Facebook的营收，以评估整个数字广告行业的健康状况。
eMarketer的分析师妮可·佩林在最近的一份简报中写道：“Alphabet在美国及全球数字广告市场中都占有很大的份额，其收益报告将有助于我们了解第二季度及今年余下时间里更广泛的数字广告行情。”
分析师料想，不会存在第二波新冠疫情或长期衰退，预计数字广告支出将在今年后期缓慢回升，并持续到明年。贝尔德的分析师塞巴斯蒂安也表示，由于假期即将来临，第四季度对广告主和电子商务来说向来举足轻重，将是对消费者是否愿意再次花钱的真正“测试”。
“想要回到先前的好日子，这种事在2020年发生的可能性较小，2021年的可能性较大。”他说。 （财富中文网）
译者：李耀和
Google's parent company, Alphabet, and Facebook this week are expected to confirm what is likely to be a huge slowdown in their businesses, a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Advertisers have slashed their spending, giving the two tech giants a harsh dose of the new reality. Investors will see the actual damage when Alphabet reports its earnings on Tuesday, followed by Facebook on Wednesday.
The effects of declining ad spending began midway through the first quarter, as several countries in Asia, followed by Europe and then the U.S., implemented stay-at-home orders. Analysts expect the full force of the pullback to hit during the second quarter.
“This is really the first major economic dislocation they’ve been through” since the financial meltdown in 2008, said Colin Sebastian, an analyst with investment bank Baird. And the current crisis came on more swiftly, he added.
The subdued expectations are a major shift for the two companies, which for the past decade have dramatically grown their digital ad businesses. Both Alphabet and Facebook are the biggest recipients of digital ad dollars.
Baird predicts Alphabet will report $33.8 billion in first-quarter revenue excluding the payments it makes to publishers, up 15% from last year versus up 19% in the year-ago quarter. For the second quarter, the investment bank expects revenue growth by the same basis to slow even more, to 1%, compared to 21% in the year-ago quarter.
As for Facebook, Baird says first-quarter revenue will actually grow 16% to $17.5 billion, although that's far slower than a year earlier, during which revenue grew 26%. In the second quarter, it said, Facebook's sales will increase 5%, versus a 28% gain in the year-ago quarter.
Alphabet will feel greater pain than Facebook because of the large number of travel industry ads it usually sells, coupled with its dependence on small and medium-size businesses. Baird expects some airlines and hotels to almost entirely eliminate their online ad budgets.
Overall, online ad spending for all marketers is expected to tumble 15% to 20% in March compared to February, according to data marketing software company Zeta Global.
Despite the slowdown, Alphabet and Google are more insulated from the decline than most ad-dependent companies. Marketers that are active during the pandemic are tending to stick with Google and Facebook because of their huge reach and strong ad-targeting capabilities, Zeta Global said.
Analysts at research firm MoffettNathanson say while they expect smaller companies like Twitter and Snap, whose financial results beat analysts' lowered first-quarter expectations last week, to suffer the most as marketers cut their budgets, Facebook and Google "are not immune."
Last month, Facebook warned that it was seeing a “weakening” in its ad business as a result of the pandemic. And Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai sent a memo to employees saying that Google would slow hiring for the rest of the year, a result of the financial strain.
Facebook has said while its ad business is slowing, people are using its products more than ever. Meanwhile, analysts suspect that Google Cloud, which allows Google customers to store their data and access it over the Internet, is also gaining traction as more companies adjust to operating in an environment in which a lot of work must be done remotely.
Undoubtedly, investors will closely dissect Google and Facebook's earnings to gauge the health of the overall digital ad industry.
“Because of its large share of the U.S. and worldwide digital advertising markets, Alphabet's earnings report will give clues as to what to expect for the broader digital ad market in Q2 and through the rest of the year,” Nicole Perrin, analyst for eMarketer, wrote in a recent note.
Analysts expect digital ad spending to slowly return later this year and into next year, assuming there isn’t a second wave of the coronavirus or a prolonged recession. The fourth quarter, which is usually big for advertisers and e-commerce because of the holidays, will be the true “test” on whether consumers are ready to spend money again, said Baird analyst Sebastian.
“To get back to where we were, it’ll be less likely to happen in 2020 and more likely to happen in 2021,” he said.
