今年的“大停摆”和08年的“大衰退”，哪个更糟糕？
近100年来，人们经历了30年代的“大萧条”和08年的“大衰退”，本次疫情导致的经济“大停摆”是否将开启另一场持续数年的经济衰退？
到底哪个更快：新冠病毒的传播，还是经济受到的损害？
这是数以千万计的美国工人、小企业主、经理和投资者心中的问题。随着经济效应累积，很多人都在想：是不是像2008年一样，我们正面临持续数年的缓慢衰退？
近几十年来，美国经济前景从未像过去五周一样迅速恶化，这令人震惊。标普500指数自2月中旬创下历史新高以来下跌了30%，成为史上最大跌幅；2月14日情人节以来，股东持有的10万亿美元财富化为乌有。由于人们从货币市场基金中提取现金支付租金，购买食品杂货，短期资金纷纷冻结，而短期资金向来是企业的生命线。几周前特朗普宣布贸易战休战后，美国经济出现反弹，然而现在人们普遍认为，本季度经济收缩可能为历史上最严重的一次。
恐怖的“大衰退”
由于新冠病毒对经济冲击巨大，美国人认为以前的崩溃将重现。人们记忆犹新的最近一次经济衰退是“大衰退”，也可以简单称之为“2008年”。大衰退是很可怕的实例，程度非常严重，延续时间也非常长，全面复苏不只等了一两个季度，而是好几年。
大衰退有多严重？六个季度内GDP缩水4%，到2009年年中触底，之后14个季度里国民收入都没反弹到2007年末的水平，直到2011年年中才达到。
最严重的时候，失业率飙升至近10%。投资级债券收益率达到9%，垃圾债券收益率达到13.4%。截至2009年春季，标准普尔500指数暴跌58%。五年之后才重回2007年底的高点，股市第一次站上该点位是1999年。
这次情况不一样
到目前为止，美国似乎并未出现未来几年可能导致经济崩溃的基本面崩盘风险，例如曾引发大衰退的房地产泡沫。“这次不像大萧条或大衰退重现，”经济学家、诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特席勒对《财富》杂志表示。“情况不一样。这次更多是病毒带来的恐慌以及股市下跌，跟楼市导致2008年危机不太一样。”
但从某些方面来看，本轮危机比2008年更为严重，因为早期冲击比2008年来得更快，影响也更大。为防止经济衰退与病毒同步蔓延，联邦政府要迅速采取行动，向陷入困境的企业提供大规模紧急资金。最严重的威胁并不像2008年一样由次贷危机等定时炸弹引发。最危险之处在于美国信贷市场已然压力巨大，信用紧缩，资金短缺的公司破产，随之出现连锁裁员，员工持有现金干涸，导致更多违约和裁员。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪将当前的冲击比作心脏病发作。“经济的核心是信贷市场，出现惜贷情况，说明信贷市场受到冲击，”他说。“必须做血管成形术或瓣膜手术，否则心脏会停止跳动。”他说，危机之所以如此严重主要原因是缺乏时间。“2008年，信贷市场过了几个月才枯竭，”他说，而现在美国要想避免经济停摆，只有几天时间采取行动。（当地时间3月27日下午，美国总统特朗普正式签署了国会表决通过的2万亿美元经济刺激法案。）
美国正面临全新情况，即经济大规模近乎停摆。感觉像导致美国经济停滞数日的911袭击演变成电影《土拨鼠之日》（电影中男主角被困在同一天中，不断重复——译者注）当中的情景，美国人每天醒来都只能看到空旷的街道和商店紧闭大门，而且看不到结束的迹象。“就算2008年衰退中，人们也不会不去餐馆和健身房，”资产管理巨头Capital Group经济学家贾里德•弗兰兹表示：“当年人们还能保持正常生活。如今企业纷纷倒闭，要么濒临倒闭。”
弗兰兹指出，疫情正攻击美国经济支柱，因为服务业占美国国内生产总值三分之二以上。他指出，餐馆、航空公司、店内购物、现场娱乐和酒店业贡献的20%经济活动里，约有一半已完全关闭。“如果说有什么能彻底终结美国经济，就是现在了，”弗兰兹说。
达美航空公司预计，二季度收入将下降100亿美元，降幅达80%。3月捷蓝航空收入400万美元，而之前平均收入为2200万美元。万豪的全球酒店业务比正常水平下降了75%，首席执行官阿恩•索伦森称当前情况比“911和金融危机加起来还要糟糕”。分析师预测，截至5月的第四季度，耐克销售额将下降三分之一，NBA和英超联赛停摆也导致鞋业巨头耐克失去了重要的推广机会。3月19日，通用和福特关闭了美国、加拿大和墨西哥所有工厂，复工时间要等另行通知。
新冠病毒来袭时，经济已然很脆弱
要了解当前处境，一定要回顾08年的大衰退。大衰退后美国经济进入艰难的新常态，与过去几十年相比，增长放缓，新增就业岗位减少。特朗普就任总统的头两年，经济下滑趋势出现逆转，商业信心复苏，从2017年年中到2018年年中，增长率跃升至3%以上。不过，尽管就业增长保持强劲，股市连创新高，但进入2020年之后，经济还是出现颓势。对美国而言，疫情来临的经济已经在走下坡路。
要评估经济走向，关键是要重新审视长达一年多的经济减速。由于美联储担心经济过热加剧通胀，2017年12月至2018年9月已四次下调基准利率。特朗普领导的大规模行动，贸易战也在踩刹车。从2018年初开始，特朗普对从中国进口的3000多亿美元美国商品加征关税，消费者和企业都要承担更高价格。“贸易战是拖累经济增长的主要原因，”赞迪说。然而在12月，美联储错误地再次加息，进一步拖累了已然减速的脚步。
2019年大部分时间里，受贸易冲突冲击的经济领域，尤其是农业、能源和制造业都陷入低迷。到年中美国看起来已走向衰退。去年7月，美联储调整路线，10月前三次下调基准利率。“随后特朗普终于看清形势，宣布休战，”赞迪说。去年底，特朗普宣布签署协议，对中国商品减征部分关税，暂停其他计划加征的关税。
该策略奏效了，至少部分起效。1月和2月，企业和消费者信心都在上升。美联储预测，2020年的经济增长率为2%，到2022年将放缓至1.8%，但不会出现衰退。10年期美国国债收益率已从2018年年中的3%降至1.5%，该信号显示，GDP增速可能比美联储预测要慢。“如果不是遇上疫情，经济可能已经渡过难关了，”赞迪说。“但本来也会遇到困难。制造业仍处于衰退之中。经济本来就很脆弱，一旦受到冲击就可能陷入低谷。”
下一次衰退会有多严重？
多数银行、券商和研究机构经济学家都认为，封锁还要持续9到12周左右，三季度经济将大幅复苏。同样，保持信贷流动的壮举还是基于“这次跟2008年不一样”的基本判断。
多数人预测，二季度将出现严重影响。TS Lombard的大卫•布利茨预测，二季度美国股市将下跌8.4%，几乎算是最乐观的预测。比起来，高盛的预测更为悲观，预计从4月到6月的三个月内股指将下跌24.5%，美国银行也同样悲观，预计跌幅达25%。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁吉姆·布拉德警告称，如果国会、美联储和财政部不迅速采取紧急行动，GDP可能会暴跌50%。其他知名机构对经济紧缩的预测为：瑞银预测下跌10%，牛津经济研究院预测下跌12%，摩根大通预测下跌14%。想知道数据恶化速度多快也有案例。3月16日，高盛预测二季度经济下降5%，四天后预测跌幅几乎增至五倍。
由于预测恶化太快，很难找到能合理反映经济萎缩的中间区间。目前中位数似乎在-15%左右，属于相对乐观，因为一直在走低。多数银行还预计，一季度将经济萎缩约为个位数，大概在2%左右。高盛通常预计下半年将出现强劲反弹，预计三季度将增长12%，第四季度将增长10%。
根据经济萎缩3%和15%的预测，以及高盛预测的反弹，年底前经济走势如何？据《财富》杂志估算，2020年美国GDP将缩水逾1.3万亿至20万亿美元，降幅为6.3%。很明显，收缩率将超过大衰退时期的一半。不同之处在于，二季度经济下跌只是暂时，到2021年经济将强劲复苏。
然而，企业持续关闭已造成就业危机。从3月3日开始的一周，21.1万美国人申请失业救济。据高盛估计，两周后申请失业救济的人数将跃升至惊人的225万。摩根士丹利预测，4至6月的平均失业率为12.8%，是目前3.6%的三倍多。
援助家庭和各行业
除了向企业和家庭提供2万亿美元援助，特朗普政府还将向各类大型企业提供高达4万亿美元的紧急贷款，涉及行业从经纪公司到汽车制造商等。年收入不到7.5万美元的单身成年人将获得1200美元的一次性补贴，总收入不到15万美元的夫妇可获得2400美元，每个孩子可获得500美元。如果收入超过75000美元和15万美元的门槛，补助金额相应减少。商业方面，法案规定航空公司可获得580亿美元的援助。补助的核心是向美国3000万小企业注资3670亿美元，小企业占美国经济的一半，雇佣员工达5800万。
该计划将向所有雇员不超过500人的企业提供“保留贷款”。餐馆、花店、印刷设备等可利用该笔资金支付员工未来两周的工资。如果小企业的做法符合标准，财政部可豁免贷款。该计划可提供关键的过度，帮助小企业向员工发放工资，等人们可以出门购物时可准备就绪。现在的策略主要是尽可能保住企业，防止一波又一波员工损失收入从而限制支出，进而避免大公司收入和资本支出持续萎缩，引发更多裁员，最后经济陷入2008年一样的衰退。
幸运的是，参议院和白宫也采取行动防止信贷危机引发世界末日。参议院的法案提供了5000亿美元贷款，弥补美联储提供贷款的损失。有了美国财政部的支持，美联储可以向遭遇困境的企业提供多达2万亿美元贷款，因为有些企业无法获得贷款，或无法在私人市场债券再融资，要么只能以高利率借贷。
回购和商业票据风险不断增加
如果说破坏性强但短暂的风暴会变成需积攒数年能量的飓风，关键就是之前提到的信贷封锁。危险在于信贷市场内两个不同部门。第一种是由两种工具提供的短期融资：回购协议（即repos），另一种则是商业票据。回购协议比较专业少有人知，但构成了全球最大的债务市场之一。未偿还回购协议的平均金额为3.9万亿美元，占美国经济规模的五分之一。
回购协议是超短期贷款，通常有资产支持，主要由货币市场共同基金提供。借方是没有大银行一样庞大存款资金基础的金融机构，此类机构也不依赖银行快速融资；货币市场的主要客户是经纪人和对冲基金。比如说，某家券商出售了货币市场基金，基金有大量现金可供投资，只要签订相应合约就可隔夜拆借1亿美元，第二天再以稍高溢价回购，基金就可获得0.5个基点回报。券商利用此类现金支持股票和债券交易，对冲基金可在不出售部分投资组合的情况下部署基金迅速收购证券。
作为保障，对冲基金或经纪人提供美国国债或房利美或房地美“代理”债券。各大商业银行纷纷开展蓬勃发展的“清算”业务，在贷款人和借款人之间传递合同、现金和抵押品，并处理托管事宜。
不管任何时期，回购协议都是货币市场贷款人的超安全工具。但在极不稳定的罕见时期，借款人会无法使用回购协议，市场陷入停滞。货币市场基金担心，对冲基金正蒙受巨大损失急需现金，甚至作为抵押的美国国债价值波动太快，可能无法获得回款。这就是过去几周断断续续发生的事。此外，货币市场基金客户正取出现金，造成借款人可用资金短缺。
如果对冲基金和券商面临流动性紧缩，对冲基金可抛售美国国债和其他债券筹集应急资金，券商没有资金确保固定收益市场平稳运行。一旦冻结将导致价格暴跌，收益率飙升，进一步收紧信贷政策。
第二项重要的资金来源是商业票据，即各种公司为存货或应收账款融资获得的短期借据。此类充裕又廉价的现金流可帮助汽车制造商或连锁餐厅等企业不用清算固定收益资产即可支付账单，然而疫情造成的恐慌蔓延导致3月中旬市场短暂关闭。
美联储的任务是保持回购协议和商业票据市场的流动性，目前正加快步伐。3月中旬，美联储出手支持货币市场基金，每天购买1万亿美元回购协议，避免券商和对冲基金现金紧缩。美联储还从2008年应对方案中取消了商业票据融资机制，同意从无法在货币市场融资的企业手中购买高达1万亿美元的借据，并得到美国财政部大力支持。关注这两个重要的资金来源。只有美联储继续帮逃债者弥补，也只有无论情况多糟美联储都继续，美国才能安然度过危机，避免灾难降临。
企业债券和贷款压力隐现
金融危机复苏过程中，美国企业大幅提高杠杆率，减小了安全缓冲。“11年里，各方风险偏好都很高，”BNY Mellon首席经济学家艾丽西亚·莱文说。“企业债台高筑。2008年银行的资产负债表面临风险。现在，美国企业的资产负债表也受到威胁。当前潜在流动性危机不在银行，而在企业部门。”
在能源领域，尤其是水压开采、公用事业和材料等行业，杠杆率跃升尤为明显。Capital Group的弗兰兹估计，美国企业借入了大量资金投资用于杠杆收购的高收益杠杆贷款，还有穆迪评级为BBB仅高于垃圾债的公司债，总金额达5万亿美元。弗兰兹说，过去十年里该部分资金增幅远远超过100%。
垃圾债券市场已开始红火：收益率从不到5%猛增到6.1%左右。公司不断为到期的公司债务进行再融资。随着企业停工提升违约风险，如果民间借贷不完全停止，收益率可能飙升至极高水平，最后企业只能以无力承担的利率借贷。
更糟糕的是，大型资产管理公司禁止持有评级低于BBB的债券。因此，如果相关证券降级为垃圾级，共同基金只能大量抛售，再次推动收益率飙升。
现在看来，在接下来的几个月里，现金流萎缩将变得非常严重，私人贷款方将从市场中撤退，要么利率水平极高，导致美国企业蒙受更严重损失，失业和破产进一步蔓延。
再强调一遍，政府要提供贷款帮助美国企业渡过危机。美联储不可承担信贷风险，所以要由财政部牵头。幸运的是，刚通过的经济刺激法案允许财政部与美联储合作，提供2万亿美元流动性。
危机后的展望
当然，现在还没法预测美国走出黑暗沐浴重新沐浴阳光是在春天还是夏天。请记住，即使是预测年底前将美国GDP下滑6%（该数字已相当罕见），前提也是春末或初夏人们就能复工，商业秩序也恢复正常。
即便顺利度过疫情，坦率地说，前景也并不乐观。看起来危机前股市严重高估，所以很多家庭在股市中的财富都无法涨回。不管谁当选总统，两年前没影响到经济的高关税可能将永久存在。对经济增长来说则是一大负面影响。不断膨胀的公共赤字和债务只能通过更高税收解决，从而造成另一项负担。
所以最好的情形是，一如危机爆发前我们预估，GDP增速回到低于2%的水平。不能让特朗普像刚上任一样由着性子。
但不管怎么说，情况还是比2008年好多了。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
到底哪个更快：新冠病毒的传播，还是经济受到的损害？
这是数以千万计的美国工人、小企业主、经理和投资者心中的问题。随着经济效应累积，很多人都在想：是不是像2008年一样，我们正面临持续数年的缓慢衰退？
近几十年来，美国经济前景从未像过去五周一样迅速恶化，这令人震惊。标普500指数自2月中旬创下历史新高以来下跌了30%，成为史上最大跌幅；2月14日情人节以来，股东持有的10万亿美元财富化为乌有。由于人们从货币市场基金中提取现金支付租金，购买食品杂货，短期资金纷纷冻结，而短期资金向来是企业的生命线。几周前特朗普宣布贸易战休战后，美国经济出现反弹，然而现在人们普遍认为，本季度经济收缩可能为历史上最严重的一次。
恐怖的“大衰退”
由于新冠病毒对经济冲击巨大，美国人认为以前的崩溃将重现。人们记忆犹新的最近一次经济衰退是“大衰退”，也可以简单称之为“2008年”。大衰退是很可怕的实例，程度非常严重，延续时间也非常长，全面复苏不只等了一两个季度，而是好几年。
大衰退有多严重？六个季度内GDP缩水4%，到2009年年中触底，之后14个季度里国民收入都没反弹到2007年末的水平，直到2011年年中才达到。
最严重的时候，失业率飙升至近10%。投资级债券收益率达到9%，垃圾债券收益率达到13.4%。截至2009年春季，标准普尔500指数暴跌58%。五年之后才重回2007年底的高点，股市第一次站上该点位是1999年。
这次情况不一样
到目前为止，美国似乎并未出现未来几年可能导致经济崩溃的基本面崩盘风险，例如曾引发大衰退的房地产泡沫。“这次不像大萧条或大衰退重现，”经济学家、诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特席勒对《财富》杂志表示。“情况不一样。这次更多是病毒带来的恐慌以及股市下跌，跟楼市导致2008年危机不太一样。”
但从某些方面来看，本轮危机比2008年更为严重，因为早期冲击比2008年来得更快，影响也更大。为防止经济衰退与病毒同步蔓延，联邦政府要迅速采取行动，向陷入困境的企业提供大规模紧急资金。最严重的威胁并不像2008年一样由次贷危机等定时炸弹引发。最危险之处在于美国信贷市场已然压力巨大，信用紧缩，资金短缺的公司破产，随之出现连锁裁员，员工持有现金干涸，导致更多违约和裁员。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪将当前的冲击比作心脏病发作。“经济的核心是信贷市场，出现惜贷情况，说明信贷市场受到冲击，”他说。“必须做血管成形术或瓣膜手术，否则心脏会停止跳动。”他说，危机之所以如此严重主要原因是缺乏时间。“2008年，信贷市场过了几个月才枯竭，”他说，而现在美国要想避免经济停摆，只有几天时间采取行动。（当地时间3月27日下午，美国总统特朗普正式签署了国会表决通过的2万亿美元经济刺激法案。）
美国正面临全新情况，即经济大规模近乎停摆。感觉像导致美国经济停滞数日的911袭击演变成电影《土拨鼠之日》（电影中男主角被困在同一天中，不断重复——译者注）当中的情景，美国人每天醒来都只能看到空旷的街道和商店紧闭大门，而且看不到结束的迹象。“就算2008年衰退中，人们也不会不去餐馆和健身房，”资产管理巨头Capital Group经济学家贾里德•弗兰兹表示：“当年人们还能保持正常生活。如今企业纷纷倒闭，要么濒临倒闭。”
弗兰兹指出，疫情正攻击美国经济支柱，因为服务业占美国国内生产总值三分之二以上。他指出，餐馆、航空公司、店内购物、现场娱乐和酒店业贡献的20%经济活动里，约有一半已完全关闭。“如果说有什么能彻底终结美国经济，就是现在了，”弗兰兹说。
达美航空公司预计，二季度收入将下降100亿美元，降幅达80%。3月捷蓝航空收入400万美元，而之前平均收入为2200万美元。万豪的全球酒店业务比正常水平下降了75%，首席执行官阿恩•索伦森称当前情况比“911和金融危机加起来还要糟糕”。分析师预测，截至5月的第四季度，耐克销售额将下降三分之一，NBA和英超联赛停摆也导致鞋业巨头耐克失去了重要的推广机会。3月19日，通用和福特关闭了美国、加拿大和墨西哥所有工厂，复工时间要等另行通知。
新冠病毒来袭时，经济已然很脆弱
要了解当前处境，一定要回顾08年的大衰退。大衰退后美国经济进入艰难的新常态，与过去几十年相比，增长放缓，新增就业岗位减少。特朗普就任总统的头两年，经济下滑趋势出现逆转，商业信心复苏，从2017年年中到2018年年中，增长率跃升至3%以上。不过，尽管就业增长保持强劲，股市连创新高，但进入2020年之后，经济还是出现颓势。对美国而言，疫情来临的经济已经在走下坡路。
要评估经济走向，关键是要重新审视长达一年多的经济减速。由于美联储担心经济过热加剧通胀，2017年12月至2018年9月已四次下调基准利率。特朗普领导的大规模行动，贸易战也在踩刹车。从2018年初开始，特朗普对从中国进口的3000多亿美元美国商品加征关税，消费者和企业都要承担更高价格。“贸易战是拖累经济增长的主要原因，”赞迪说。然而在12月，美联储错误地再次加息，进一步拖累了已然减速的脚步。
2019年大部分时间里，受贸易冲突冲击的经济领域，尤其是农业、能源和制造业都陷入低迷。到年中美国看起来已走向衰退。去年7月，美联储调整路线，10月前三次下调基准利率。“随后特朗普终于看清形势，宣布休战，”赞迪说。去年底，特朗普宣布签署协议，对中国商品减征部分关税，暂停其他计划加征的关税。
该策略奏效了，至少部分起效。1月和2月，企业和消费者信心都在上升。美联储预测，2020年的经济增长率为2%，到2022年将放缓至1.8%，但不会出现衰退。10年期美国国债收益率已从2018年年中的3%降至1.5%，该信号显示，GDP增速可能比美联储预测要慢。“如果不是遇上疫情，经济可能已经渡过难关了，”赞迪说。“但本来也会遇到困难。制造业仍处于衰退之中。经济本来就很脆弱，一旦受到冲击就可能陷入低谷。”
下一次衰退会有多严重？
多数银行、券商和研究机构经济学家都认为，封锁还要持续9到12周左右，三季度经济将大幅复苏。同样，保持信贷流动的壮举还是基于“这次跟2008年不一样”的基本判断。
多数人预测，二季度将出现严重影响。TS Lombard的大卫•布利茨预测，二季度美国股市将下跌8.4%，几乎算是最乐观的预测。比起来，高盛的预测更为悲观，预计从4月到6月的三个月内股指将下跌24.5%，美国银行也同样悲观，预计跌幅达25%。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁吉姆·布拉德警告称，如果国会、美联储和财政部不迅速采取紧急行动，GDP可能会暴跌50%。其他知名机构对经济紧缩的预测为：瑞银预测下跌10%，牛津经济研究院预测下跌12%，摩根大通预测下跌14%。想知道数据恶化速度多快也有案例。3月16日，高盛预测二季度经济下降5%，四天后预测跌幅几乎增至五倍。
由于预测恶化太快，很难找到能合理反映经济萎缩的中间区间。目前中位数似乎在-15%左右，属于相对乐观，因为一直在走低。多数银行还预计，一季度将经济萎缩约为个位数，大概在2%左右。高盛通常预计下半年将出现强劲反弹，预计三季度将增长12%，第四季度将增长10%。
根据经济萎缩3%和15%的预测，以及高盛预测的反弹，年底前经济走势如何？据《财富》杂志估算，2020年美国GDP将缩水逾1.3万亿至20万亿美元，降幅为6.3%。很明显，收缩率将超过大衰退时期的一半。不同之处在于，二季度经济下跌只是暂时，到2021年经济将强劲复苏。
然而，企业持续关闭已造成就业危机。从3月3日开始的一周，21.1万美国人申请失业救济。据高盛估计，两周后申请失业救济的人数将跃升至惊人的225万。摩根士丹利预测，4至6月的平均失业率为12.8%，是目前3.6%的三倍多。
援助家庭和各行业
除了向企业和家庭提供2万亿美元援助，特朗普政府还将向各类大型企业提供高达4万亿美元的紧急贷款，涉及行业从经纪公司到汽车制造商等。年收入不到7.5万美元的单身成年人将获得1200美元的一次性补贴，总收入不到15万美元的夫妇可获得2400美元，每个孩子可获得500美元。如果收入超过75000美元和15万美元的门槛，补助金额相应减少。商业方面，法案规定航空公司可获得580亿美元的援助。补助的核心是向美国3000万小企业注资3670亿美元，小企业占美国经济的一半，雇佣员工达5800万。
该计划将向所有雇员不超过500人的企业提供“保留贷款”。餐馆、花店、印刷设备等可利用该笔资金支付员工未来两周的工资。如果小企业的做法符合标准，财政部可豁免贷款。该计划可提供关键的过度，帮助小企业向员工发放工资，等人们可以出门购物时可准备就绪。现在的策略主要是尽可能保住企业，防止一波又一波员工损失收入从而限制支出，进而避免大公司收入和资本支出持续萎缩，引发更多裁员，最后经济陷入2008年一样的衰退。
幸运的是，参议院和白宫也采取行动防止信贷危机引发世界末日。参议院的法案提供了5000亿美元贷款，弥补美联储提供贷款的损失。有了美国财政部的支持，美联储可以向遭遇困境的企业提供多达2万亿美元贷款，因为有些企业无法获得贷款，或无法在私人市场债券再融资，要么只能以高利率借贷。
回购和商业票据风险不断增加
如果说破坏性强但短暂的风暴会变成需积攒数年能量的飓风，关键就是之前提到的信贷封锁。危险在于信贷市场内两个不同部门。第一种是由两种工具提供的短期融资：回购协议（即repos），另一种则是商业票据。回购协议比较专业少有人知，但构成了全球最大的债务市场之一。未偿还回购协议的平均金额为3.9万亿美元，占美国经济规模的五分之一。
回购协议是超短期贷款，通常有资产支持，主要由货币市场共同基金提供。借方是没有大银行一样庞大存款资金基础的金融机构，此类机构也不依赖银行快速融资；货币市场的主要客户是经纪人和对冲基金。比如说，某家券商出售了货币市场基金，基金有大量现金可供投资，只要签订相应合约就可隔夜拆借1亿美元，第二天再以稍高溢价回购，基金就可获得0.5个基点回报。券商利用此类现金支持股票和债券交易，对冲基金可在不出售部分投资组合的情况下部署基金迅速收购证券。
作为保障，对冲基金或经纪人提供美国国债或房利美或房地美“代理”债券。各大商业银行纷纷开展蓬勃发展的“清算”业务，在贷款人和借款人之间传递合同、现金和抵押品，并处理托管事宜。
不管任何时期，回购协议都是货币市场贷款人的超安全工具。但在极不稳定的罕见时期，借款人会无法使用回购协议，市场陷入停滞。货币市场基金担心，对冲基金正蒙受巨大损失急需现金，甚至作为抵押的美国国债价值波动太快，可能无法获得回款。这就是过去几周断断续续发生的事。此外，货币市场基金客户正取出现金，造成借款人可用资金短缺。
如果对冲基金和券商面临流动性紧缩，对冲基金可抛售美国国债和其他债券筹集应急资金，券商没有资金确保固定收益市场平稳运行。一旦冻结将导致价格暴跌，收益率飙升，进一步收紧信贷政策。
第二项重要的资金来源是商业票据，即各种公司为存货或应收账款融资获得的短期借据。此类充裕又廉价的现金流可帮助汽车制造商或连锁餐厅等企业不用清算固定收益资产即可支付账单，然而疫情造成的恐慌蔓延导致3月中旬市场短暂关闭。
美联储的任务是保持回购协议和商业票据市场的流动性，目前正加快步伐。3月中旬，美联储出手支持货币市场基金，每天购买1万亿美元回购协议，避免券商和对冲基金现金紧缩。美联储还从2008年应对方案中取消了商业票据融资机制，同意从无法在货币市场融资的企业手中购买高达1万亿美元的借据，并得到美国财政部大力支持。关注这两个重要的资金来源。只有美联储继续帮逃债者弥补，也只有无论情况多糟美联储都继续，美国才能安然度过危机，避免灾难降临。
企业债券和贷款压力隐现
金融危机复苏过程中，美国企业大幅提高杠杆率，减小了安全缓冲。“11年里，各方风险偏好都很高，”BNY Mellon首席经济学家艾丽西亚·莱文说。“企业债台高筑。2008年银行的资产负债表面临风险。现在，美国企业的资产负债表也受到威胁。当前潜在流动性危机不在银行，而在企业部门。”
在能源领域，尤其是水压开采、公用事业和材料等行业，杠杆率跃升尤为明显。Capital Group的弗兰兹估计，美国企业借入了大量资金投资用于杠杆收购的高收益杠杆贷款，还有穆迪评级为BBB仅高于垃圾债的公司债，总金额达5万亿美元。弗兰兹说，过去十年里该部分资金增幅远远超过100%。
垃圾债券市场已开始红火：收益率从不到5%猛增到6.1%左右。公司不断为到期的公司债务进行再融资。随着企业停工提升违约风险，如果民间借贷不完全停止，收益率可能飙升至极高水平，最后企业只能以无力承担的利率借贷。
更糟糕的是，大型资产管理公司禁止持有评级低于BBB的债券。因此，如果相关证券降级为垃圾级，共同基金只能大量抛售，再次推动收益率飙升。
现在看来，在接下来的几个月里，现金流萎缩将变得非常严重，私人贷款方将从市场中撤退，要么利率水平极高，导致美国企业蒙受更严重损失，失业和破产进一步蔓延。
再强调一遍，政府要提供贷款帮助美国企业渡过危机。美联储不可承担信贷风险，所以要由财政部牵头。幸运的是，刚通过的经济刺激法案允许财政部与美联储合作，提供2万亿美元流动性。
危机后的展望
当然，现在还没法预测美国走出黑暗沐浴重新沐浴阳光是在春天还是夏天。请记住，即使是预测年底前将美国GDP下滑6%（该数字已相当罕见），前提也是春末或初夏人们就能复工，商业秩序也恢复正常。
即便顺利度过疫情，坦率地说，前景也并不乐观。看起来危机前股市严重高估，所以很多家庭在股市中的财富都无法涨回。不管谁当选总统，两年前没影响到经济的高关税可能将永久存在。对经济增长来说则是一大负面影响。不断膨胀的公共赤字和债务只能通过更高税收解决，从而造成另一项负担。
所以最好的情形是，一如危机爆发前我们预估，GDP增速回到低于2%的水平。不能让特朗普像刚上任一样由着性子。
但不管怎么说，情况还是比2008年好多了。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
Which is moving faster: the spread of the coronavirus, or the damage to the U.S. economy?
That’s the question on the minds of tens of millions of American workers, small-business owners, managers, and investors. And as the economic effects pile up, many are wondering: Are we on the cusp of the kind of yearslong descent that began in 2008?
Never in recent decades has America suffered a deterioration in our economic outlook as swift and shocking as the tremors of the past five weeks caused by the coronavirus crisis. The 30% drop in the S&P 500 since its all-time high in mid-February is the fastest slide on that scale in its history; since Valentine’s Day, $10 trillion in shareholder wealth has vanished. The short-term funding that’s the lifeblood of corporations is freezing up as folks withdraw cash from money-market funds to pay for rent and groceries. An economy that was rebounding a few weeks ago after President Trump called a trade war truce is now universally viewed as heading for what could be the steepest one-quarter contraction in history.
Why 2008 was so terrifying
Americans are looking to crashes of the past for a prognosis on how sick the coronavirus will make our economy. And the one that’s top of mind is the most recent, the Great Recession, or what I'll simply call “2008.” The Great Recession is such a terrifying precedent because it was both extremely deep, and it was long—a full recovery took not a quarter or two, but years.
GDP shrank by 4% over six quarters, bottoming in mid-2009, and national income didn't rebound to late 2007 levels for 14 quarters, until mid-2011.
In the depths, unemployment spiked to nearly 10%. Yields on investment grade debt hit 9%, and junk bonds fetched 13.4%. The S&P 500 plunged 58% by the spring of 2009; it took five years, until the close of 2012, for equities to regain the summit of late 2007, the level first reached in 1999.
So far, it appears that the U.S. isn't threatened by a fundamental fissure that will crack and wrack the economy for years to come, like the housing bubble that caused the Great Recession. “This doesn’t seem to be another Great Depression or Great Recession,” economist and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told Fortune. “The story isn’t the same. It seems to be a virus story and a stock market story, not like the housing story of 2008.”
But in some ways, this crisis is more serious than 2008. That’s because the early devastation hit much faster, and caused far more damage, than in 2008. To prevent an economic contagion that parallels the virus’s rampage, the federal government needs to provide emergency funding for beleaguered businesses at a speed, and size, never before achieved. The paramount threat isn't the kind of ticking time bomb—the subprime mortgage crash—that caused 2008. It’s the danger that America’s credit markets, already under severe stress, freeze up, sending cash-strapped companies into bankruptcy and causing cascading layoffs that deprive workers of cash, triggering more failures and layoffs.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, compares the current shock to a heart attack. “The heart of the economy is the credit markets, and it’s under attack because of the fear of lending,” he says. “We've got to do an angioplasty or valve surgery, or the heart will shut down.” He says that what makes this crisis so dire is the lack of time. “In 2008, it took months for the credit markets to dry up.” Now, he says, the U.S. has only days to act before the economy goes into cardiac arrest.
That’s because America is experiencing a completely new phenomenon, the nearly total shutdown of large swaths of the economy. It’s as if the 9/11 attack that brought America to a standstill for a few days has morphed into a kind ofGroundhog Day in which Americans awaken to the sight of empty streets and shuttered stores that shows no signs of ending. “In 2008, it wasn’t as if we didn’t go to restaurants and the gym,” says Jared Franz, an economist at asset management giant Capital Group. “People went about their daily lives. Now, businesses are completely shut down, or close to it.”
Franz notes that the virus is attacking the backbone of the U.S. economy, services that account for over two-thirds of GDP. He points out that around half of the 20% economic activity contributed by restaurants, airlines, in-store shopping, live entertainment, and hospitality is totally shuttered. “If you had to invent the perfect takedown of the U.S. economy, this would be it,” says Franz.
Delta Airlines predicts that its second-quarter revenues will drop by $10 billion, or 80%. JetBlue collected $4 million from customers in March, versus its average of $22 million. Marriott’s global hotel business has dropped 75% below normal, prompting CEO Arne Sorenson to label the current situation “worse than 9/11 and the financial crisis combined.” Analysts predict that Nike's sales will drop by one-third in its Q4 ending in May, and the suspension of the NBA and English Premier football league schedules is depriving the footwear colossus of crucial promotions. On March 19, GM and Ford shut down all production in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico until further notice.
The economy was already fragile when the coronavirus hit
To understand where we are now, you have to go back to the aftermath of the Great Recession, when the U.S. economy shifted into a slogging new normal, delivering slower growth and fewer new jobs than in the preceding decades. That trend reversed in Donald Trump’s first two years as President. Business confidence revived, and growth jumped to over 3% from mid-2017 to mid-2018. But although job growth remained robust and the stock market notched peak after peak, the economy entered 2020 back on its heels. The pandemic that would have weakened a strong economy is decimating a weak one.
To assess where the economy is headed, it’s crucial to review its more than yearlong downshift. Fearing that that overheating would stoke inflation, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate four times from December of 2017 through September of 2018. But a signature Trump onslaught was already tapping the brakes: the trade war. Starting in early 2018, Trump slapped tariffs on over $300 billion of U.S. imports from China, raising prices for consumers and businesses. “It was the trade war that was mainly responsible for sucking out growth,” says Zandi. Nevertheless, in December, the Fed made the mistake of imposing yet another rate increase, an ankle weight that further slowed the already halting jog.
Through much of 2019, big parts of the economy, notably farming, energy, and manufacturing, all hit by the trade conflict, sat mired in a downturn. By midyear, the U.S. seemed headed for recession. In July, the Fed reversed course, slashing its benchmark three times through October. “Then Trump connected the dots and called a truce,” says Zandi. Late last year, Trump announced a deal that would roll back some duties on Chinese goods and suspend other planned tariffs.
The gambit worked, at least in part. In January and February, business and consumer confidence was rising. The Fed forecast mediocre expansion of 2% for 2020, slowing to 1.8% by 2022, but no recession. The 10-year Treasury yield had fallen from 3% in mid-2018 to 1.5%, a signal that GDP could well wax more slowly than the Fed predicted. “If not for the pandemic, we might have muddled through,” says Zandi. “But it would have been a struggle. Manufacturing was still in recession. The economy was already fragile, and vulnerable to a shock that could send it into a tailspin.”
How deep will the next recession be?
Experts’ predictions on how deep this recession will go must be setting records given the distance from the depressing best to the previously unimaginable worst. What most economists at the banks, brokerages, and research firms have in common is that they’re positing that the shutdown lasts another nine to 12 weeks or so, and that a sharp recovery begins in the third quarter. Once again, that “this isn’t 2008” scenario hinges on heroic action to keep credit flowing.
According to most forecasts, the deep devastation hits in the second quarter. Just about the most optimistic outlook comes from David Blitz of TS Lombard, who foresees a fall of 8.4% in Q2. At the other extremes, Goldman Sachs sees a 24.5% drop in the three months from April through June, and Bank of America is just as pessimistic at 25%. Jim Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, warned GDP could crater by 50% without drastic emergency action from Congress, the Fed, and the Treasury. The contractions predicted by other notables: UBS at 10%, Oxford Economics at 12%, and JP Morgan Chase at 14%. Here’s a guide to how fast the numbers are deteriorating. On March 16, Goldman called for a decline of 5% in Q2 and four days later upped the number almost fivefold.
With the forecasts worsening so rapidly, it’s hard to find a middle range that could provide a reasonable view of how much the economy could shrink. Right now, the median appears to be around –15%, and that’s optimistic, since it’s been heading lower. Most banks also expect shrinkage in Q1 in single digits—a ballpark number would be 2%. Goldman is typical in projecting a strong rebound in the second half, foreseeing plus 12% in Q3 and 10% in Q4.
Where do those negative 3% and 15% predictions, followed by the Goldman-posited rebound, take us by year-end? By Fortune’s calculations, GDP for 2020 would shrink by over $1.3 trillion to $20 trillion, and decline 6.3%. As we’ll see, that’s more than half again the total shrinkage in the Great Recession. The difference is that the Q2 fall would be a passing hangover, since the economy would be recovering strongly moving into 2021.
The rolling lockdown of businesses, however, is already creating a job crisis. The week beginning March 3, 211,000 Americans filed unemployment claims. Just two weeks later, the number, by Goldman’s estimates, jumped to a staggering 2.25 million. Morgan Stanley predicts an average unemployment rate in the April to June period of 12.8%, more than triple today's 3.6%.
Aid to families and industry
On March 25, the Senate and the Trump Administration reached agreement on a colossal relief package providing $2 trillion in aid to businesses and families, and make as much as $4 trillion in emergency loans available for all types of large businesses from brokerages to automakers. Single adults making up to $75,000 a year would get a one-time payment of $1200, and couples making $150,000 or less would receive $2400, as well as $500 per child. Those amounts would be reduced for earnings above the $75,000 and $150,000 thresholds. On the business side, the bill earmarks $58 billion in aid for airlines. A crucial plank is a $367 billion infusion targeting America's 30 million small businesses that account for half our economy and employ 58 million workers.
The plan would provide “retention loans” available to all enterprises with 500 employees or fewer. Restaurants, flower shops, printing outfits, and the like would deploy the funds to pay their employees wages for the next two weeks. If they meet that test, the Treasury would forgive the loans. The program provides a crucial bridge so that small businesses can keep employees on the payroll so they’re ready to go when folks can finally get back to shopping. Right now, a long extension to prevent a cycle where wave after wave of workers lose their paychecks and clamp down on spending, causing big-company revenues and capital expenditures to keep shrinking, triggering still more layoffs that send us into another 2008.
Fortunately, the Senate and the White House also moved to forestall a credit crisis that would unleash armageddon. The Senate bill provides a $500 billion facility that would cover losses on loans provided by the Federal Reserve. The Treasury's backstop would enable the Fed to lend as much as $2 trillion to corporations that either can't obtain loans or refinance bonds in the private markets, or could only borrow at super-high rates.
Growing risks in repos and commercial paper
What could turn a damaging but temporary storm into a hurricane requiring years of rebuilding is that aforementioned lockdown in credit. The danger lies in both of two distinct sectors of the credit markets. The first is the short-term financing provided by two types of vehicles: repurchase agreements, known as repos, and commercial paper. Repos aren't exactly a household name, but they constitute one of the world’s biggest debt markets; the average amount of repos outstanding stands at $3.9 trillion, one-fifth the size of the U.S. economy.
Repos are ultra-short-term loans, usually asset-backed, mainly provided by money-market mutual funds. The borrowers are financial institutions that aren’t funded by deposits like the big banks, nor do they rely on those banks for quick financing; the money market’s chief customers are brokers and hedge funds. The broker, say, sells the money-market fund, which has lots of cash to invest, a contract enabling it to borrow $100 million overnight, and the next day buys back the contract at a slight premium, giving the fund a fraction-of-a-basis point return. The brokerages use the cash to back equity and bond trading, and the hedge funds can deploy the funds to quickly acquire securities without selling parts of their portfolios.
As security, the hedge fund or broker furnishes Treasuries or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac “agency” bonds. The major commercial banks do a thriving “clearing” business ferrying contracts, cash, and collateral between lenders and borrowers, and handling custody.
In almost all periods, repos are a supersafe vehicle for the money-market lenders. But in rare times of extreme volatility, they turn away borrowers, and the market seizes up. The money-market funds fear that hedge funds are taking big losses, are desperate for cash, and that the value of even the Treasuries supplied as collateral is fluctuating so fast that they may not get repaid. That’s what’s been happening intermittently for the past few weeks. In addition, money-market fund customers are taking out the cash, creating a shortage of funds available to borrowers.
If hedge funds and brokers face a liquidity crunch, the former will dump their Treasuries and other bonds to raise emergency cash, and the latter won’t have the funds to ensure a smoothly working fixed-income market. The freeze will send prices plummeting and yields soaring, further tightening the vise on credit.
A second critical source of funding is commercial paper, short-term IOUs that all kinds of companies obtain to finance inventories or receivables. That flow of ample, cheap cash enables the likes of automakers or restaurant chains to pay bills without liquidating their fixed-income holdings, and once again, the fear contagion virtually shut down the market briefly in mid-March.
It’s the Fed’s role to keep the repo and commercial paper markets liquid, and so far, it’s stepping up. In mid-March, the Fed stood in for the money-market funds and purchased $1 trillion a day in repos, averting a cash crunch for brokers and hedge funds. The Fed also is dusting off the Commercial Paper Funding facility from its 2008 playbook, agreeing to buy up to $1 trillion in the IOUs from corporations, bolstered by a big backstop from the U.S. Treasury, that can't get funding from money markets. Keep an eye on these two crucial funding sources. Only if the Fed continues to fill the role of the fleeing lenders, and only if the Fed pledges to keep doing so no matter how bad it gets, can America weather the crisis without a catastrophe.
Looming stress in corporate bonds and loans
In the recovery from the financial crisis, U.S. companies steeply increased their leverage and shrank their safety cushion. “For 11 years, everyone had a big appetite for risk,” says Alicia Levine, chief economist at BNY Mellon. “Companies gorged on debt. In 2008 the banks’ balance sheets were at risk. Now, corporate America’s balance sheets are threatened. We have a potential liquidity crisis not in the banks, but in the corporate sector.”
The jump in leverage was especially pronounced in such sectors as energy, notably fracking, utilities, and materials. Franz of Capital Group reckons that U.S. enterprises have borrowed a total of $5 trillion in high-yield, leveraged loans used in LBOs, and BBB-rated corporates, the lowest Moody's level above junk status. That’s an increase of well over 100% in the past decade, says Franz.
The junk bond market is already flashing red: Yields have catapulted from under 5% to around 6.1%. Companies are constantly refinancing the waves of maturing corporate debt. As the business lockdown raises the risk of defaults, yields could rise so high that companies can borrow only at ruinous rates, if private lending doesn’t shut down altogether.
To make matters worse, big asset managers are banned by their charters from holding bonds rated lower than BBB. So if those securities are downgraded to junk, mutual funds will dump them in bushels, once again, sending yields skyward.
It now appears that over the next few months, the shrinkage in cash flows will become so severe that private lenders retreat from the market or demand rates that drive corporate America to even deeper losses, causing a spillover into job losses and bankruptcies.
Once again, the government needs to provide credit that will bridge corporate America through the crisis. The Fed is barred from taking credit risk, so it’s the Treasury that must take the lead. Fortunately, the Senate bill allows Treasury to partner with the Fed to provide that $2 trillion in liquidity.
The outlook beyond the crisis
Of course, it’s unknowable at this point whether the U.S. will emerge from this dark tunnel into the sunlight by spring or summer. Keep in mind that even the forecasts that get us to a shrinkage of 6% of GDP by year-end, a figure seldom seen, assume that folks will be back on the streets and offices by late spring or early summer.
Assuming we get to the other side, the outlook, frankly, isn’t great. Since stocks looked wildly overpriced prior to the crisis, it’s likely that a lot of the wealth families had in stocks isn’t returning. High tariffs that weren’t hurting us two years ago will probably be a permanent feature—no matter who’s elected President. That’s a major negative for growth. The exploding public deficits and debt can only be addressed with much higher taxes that would impose still another burden.
So the best bet is that we’d return to the same old, same sub-2% growth we were expecting before the crisis hit. It’s not the animal spirits of the early Trump days.
But it’s sure a lot better than 2008.
