美股价格过高？不妨关注大银行股
想要在当前的高价股市中寻找罕见的特价股？人们在彻底搜索一番超高折价股票后会发现，最划算的股票可能还是那些家喻户晓的大银行。
尽管疫情引发了股市的大规模抛售，但股价总体来看依然十分昂贵，然而，美国三家最大银行（美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行）的股票却是异常的便宜。这些银行的股票拥有大量沃伦•巴菲特所称道的“安全系数”，而伯克希尔哈撒韦公司也是上述三家银行的大股东。简而言之，这三家大银行将为投资其股票的每一分钱带来丰厚的收益来源，即便它们维持当前的水平，也依然能够为投资者提供低值双位数回报。如果它们哪怕出现温和增长，而且投资者们将其看作长线明星股，其回报很可能会异常可观。
尽管标普500自2月中旬创历史新高以来已经下滑了8.1%，但这三家银行的跌幅则要大得多，它们的下滑始于去年年底，而新冠病毒恐慌则加剧了这一速度。自去年12月中旬以来，美国银行下滑了21%，摩根大通下滑了16%，富国银行下滑了13%。正因为如此，这三家银行的总市值蒸发了惊人的1430亿美元。
抛售已将市盈率拉至跳楼价边缘。按照其第四季度后依据报告的营收，摩根大通、美国银行和富国银行的市盈率分别为10.1、10.2和11.2，仅有标普平均水平（超过了21）的一半。这三家银行通过回购和分红向股东至少返还了100%的利润，并承诺将延续这一政策。因此，让我们看一下每一家银行都选择了哪种方式来派发这些充足的收益，并评估一下这些收益流在未来是否会消失。
去年，美国银行斩获了290亿美元的利润，但派发的更多。它向股东支付了64亿美元的股息，占总利润的22%，同时通过股票回购派发了300亿美元。然而，假设在未来几年中，美国银行的收益增速与通胀持平，也就是每年约2%的速度，同时银行将派发100%的收益。其当前市值为2440亿美元。投资者获得了2.6%的股息收益率（64亿美元的股息除以2440亿美元的市值），依然高于去年12月份的2.1%。
此外，投资者将获得两部分的资本收益，一部分是股票回购，另一部分则是与CPI持平的2%的收益增长。在支付这些股息之后，美国银行依然剩下226亿美元（也就是总利润的四分之三）可用于回购其9.3%的股份。加上2%的利润增长，如果市盈率（在计算股价时的乘数）基本没有变化，那么银行股价每年依然会增值11.3%。（9.3%来自于回购，2%来自于利润增长。）
结论：在这个利润仅跑平通胀的模式下，市盈率乘数依然为毫不起眼的10.1，但美国银行2.6%的股息收益率，再加上回购11.3%的资本收益率，将让总收益率达到13.9%。有鉴于垃圾债券（价格低但风险大的债券——译者注）5.5%的收益率、投资级企业债券2.5%的收益率以及10年期国债不到1%的收益率，这个回报已经是相当丰厚了。
摩根大通的情形与美国银行类似。这一点很了不起，因为相对于美国银行，甚至是富国银行，投资者对这个由令人敬畏的杰米•迪蒙率领的行业常胜将军略微更关注一些。去年摩根大通揽获了364亿美元的收益，创银行界历史新高。摩根大通将其中的30.4%，也就是111亿美元以股息的形式发放给投资者，让其股息收益率达到了3.6%（111亿美元除以其创业界记录的3640亿美元市值）。银行将剩余的收益，也就是240多亿美元，用于股票回购。我们不妨再次预测摩根大通在今年将沿用将所有利润返还给股东的政策，而且收益增速只是跑平通胀。如果其市盈率依然维持在低调的11.1，摩根大通将为股东带来3.6%的股票收益率，2%的利润增幅，以及6.6%的股票回购（用于回购的240多亿美元除以3640亿美元市值）。总回报率：12.2%。
令人感到惊讶的是，近些年来被丑闻和调查缠身的富国银行仅是略逊于摩根大通，其10.2的市盈率只比美国银行高了那么一点点。然而，这个表象充满了欺骗性，因为富国银行2019年在新首席执行官查尔斯•斯卡夫的带领下斩获了195亿美元的收益，但被重组和其他一次性费用所拖累。因此考虑到这对于富国来说只是个短暂的低谷，它很有可能是哥三当中最便宜的一个。
证据1就是其5%的股息收益率。富国银行的市值到目前为止在哥仨中排名垫底，为1670亿美元，但它派发了丰厚的股息，高达83亿美元，甚至超过了美国银行，占摩根大通派息的四分之三。如果富国银行将其剩余的112亿美元用于年度股票回购，那么它将带来6.6%的资本收益（回购用的112亿美元除以1670亿美元的市值）。按照2%的收益增速，假设其超低的市盈率不变，富国银行会带来5%的股息收益率、因股票回购产生的6.6%资本收益率，以及2%的收益增长，继而奉上不俗的13.6%回报率。
为什么大银行如此不受欢迎？有鉴于其市盈率，投资者并不觉得其收益将跑平通胀。反而，他们预测这些银行在未来将出现长期缓慢的下滑。市场并不傻，而且有充分的证据显示大多数银行的前景并不乐观。如今创历史新低的利率减少了贷款利润，为消费者和企业借贷创造需求的经济增长也在放缓，而且这三大银行目前正面临着来自于新一代数字化纯线上新人的竞争。市场可能还持有这样的预期，新一轮的经济衰退将引发消费和企业债的违约潮，继而蚕食银行的收益。
然而我们应该看到，得益于良好的贷款增长和有力的成本管理，摩根大通和美国银行已在低利率环境下蓬勃发展了数年。这两家银行的收益增速远远超过了通胀。摩根大通2019年利润增长了12.2%，而美国银行增长了11.2%。尽管富国的收益在2019年有所下滑，而且丑闻的冲击也使这个红极一时的品牌黯淡无光，但它的收益在过去几年中一直十分稳健。
这三家银行也都打造了其数字和移动产品，来吸引千禧一代。因此，我们无法信誓旦旦地断言在线搅局者的崛起势必将导致传统领导者的势微。后者庞大的分行网络为信用卡、汽车或消费贷款提供了大量的低成本储蓄资源。
例如，假设这些大银行的收益按照4%的经济增速增长，而不是保持通胀的2%，那么就会获得额外的2%收益。如果是这样，美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行的回报率将分别变为15.9%、14.2%和15.6%。投资者还有可能从更高的估值中获得额外的回报。一旦冠状病毒疫情过去，利率回到其爆发前的水平（依然远低于平均水平），这三大银行只要继续保持一定的增速，那么就有可能说服投资者大幅推高其市盈率。
银行股的案例非常简单：这些银行有能力在零增速下运转，并让投资者依然获得两位数的回报率。这种超低股价外加向股东返还所有现金的政策着实是举世无双。在这个依然充满泡沫的股市中，这些遭到冷遇的股票可能会成为长线赢家。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
想要在当前的高价股市中寻找罕见的特价股？人们在彻底搜索一番超高折价股票后会发现，最划算的股票可能还是那些家喻户晓的大银行。
尽管疫情引发了股市的大规模抛售，但股价总体来看依然十分昂贵，然而，美国三家最大银行（美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行）的股票却是异常的便宜。这些银行的股票拥有大量沃伦•巴菲特所称道的“安全系数”，而伯克希尔哈撒韦公司也是上述三家银行的大股东。简而言之，这三家大银行将为投资其股票的每一分钱带来丰厚的收益来源，即便它们维持当前的水平，也依然能够为投资者提供低值双位数回报。如果它们哪怕出现温和增长，而且投资者们将其看作长线明星股，其回报很可能会异常可观。
尽管标普500自2月中旬创历史新高以来已经下滑了8.1%，但这三家银行的跌幅则要大得多，它们的下滑始于去年年底，而新冠病毒恐慌则加剧了这一速度。自去年12月中旬以来，美国银行下滑了21%，摩根大通下滑了16%，富国银行下滑了13%。正因为如此，这三家银行的总市值蒸发了惊人的1430亿美元。
抛售已将市盈率拉至跳楼价边缘。按照其第四季度后依据报告的营收，摩根大通、美国银行和富国银行的市盈率分别为10.1、10.2和11.2，仅有标普平均水平（超过了21）的一半。这三家银行通过回购和分红向股东至少返还了100%的利润，并承诺将延续这一政策。因此，让我们看一下每一家银行都选择了哪种方式来派发这些充足的收益，并评估一下这些收益流在未来是否会消失。
去年，美国银行斩获了290亿美元的利润，但派发的更多。它向股东支付了64亿美元的股息，占总利润的22%，同时通过股票回购派发了300亿美元。然而，假设在未来几年中，美国银行的收益增速与通胀持平，也就是每年约2%的速度，同时银行将派发100%的收益。其当前市值为2440亿美元。投资者获得了2.6%的股息收益率（64亿美元的股息除以2440亿美元的市值），依然高于去年12月份的2.1%。
此外，投资者将获得两部分的资本收益，一部分是股票回购，另一部分则是与CPI持平的2%的收益增长。在支付这些股息之后，美国银行依然剩下226亿美元（也就是总利润的四分之三）可用于回购其9.3%的股份。加上2%的利润增长，如果市盈率（在计算股价时的乘数）基本没有变化，那么银行股价每年依然会增值11.3%。（9.3%来自于回购，2%来自于利润增长。）
结论：在这个利润仅跑平通胀的模式下，市盈率乘数依然为毫不起眼的10.1，但美国银行2.6%的股息收益率，再加上回购11.3%的资本收益率，将让总收益率达到13.9%。有鉴于垃圾债券（价格低但风险大的债券——译者注）5.5%的收益率、投资级企业债券2.5%的收益率以及10年期国债不到1%的收益率，这个回报已经是相当丰厚了。
摩根大通的情形与美国银行类似。这一点很了不起，因为相对于美国银行，甚至是富国银行，投资者对这个由令人敬畏的杰米•迪蒙率领的行业常胜将军略微更关注一些。去年摩根大通揽获了364亿美元的收益，创银行界历史新高。摩根大通将其中的30.4%，也就是111亿美元以股息的形式发放给投资者，让其股息收益率达到了3.6%（111亿美元除以其创业界记录的3640亿美元市值）。银行将剩余的收益，也就是240多亿美元，用于股票回购。我们不妨再次预测摩根大通在今年将沿用将所有利润返还给股东的政策，而且收益增速只是跑平通胀。如果其市盈率依然维持在低调的11.1，摩根大通将为股东带来3.6%的股票收益率，2%的利润增幅，以及6.6%的股票回购（用于回购的240多亿美元除以3640亿美元市值）。总回报率：12.2%。
令人感到惊讶的是，近些年来被丑闻和调查缠身的富国银行仅是略逊于摩根大通，其10.2的市盈率只比美国银行高了那么一点点。然而，这个表象充满了欺骗性，因为富国银行2019年在新首席执行官查尔斯•斯卡夫的带领下斩获了195亿美元的收益，但被重组和其他一次性费用所拖累。因此考虑到这对于富国来说只是个短暂的低谷，它很有可能是哥三当中最便宜的一个。
证据1就是其5%的股息收益率。富国银行的市值到目前为止在哥仨中排名垫底，为1670亿美元，但它派发了丰厚的股息，高达83亿美元，甚至超过了美国银行，占摩根大通派息的四分之三。如果富国银行将其剩余的112亿美元用于年度股票回购，那么它将带来6.6%的资本收益（回购用的112亿美元除以1670亿美元的市值）。按照2%的收益增速，假设其超低的市盈率不变，富国银行会带来5%的股息收益率、因股票回购产生的6.6%资本收益率，以及2%的收益增长，继而奉上不俗的13.6%回报率。
为什么大银行如此不受欢迎？有鉴于其市盈率，投资者并不觉得其收益将跑平通胀。反而，他们预测这些银行在未来将出现长期缓慢的下滑。市场并不傻，而且有充分的证据显示大多数银行的前景并不乐观。如今创历史新低的利率减少了贷款利润，为消费者和企业借贷创造需求的经济增长也在放缓，而且这三大银行目前正面临着来自于新一代数字化纯线上新人的竞争。市场可能还持有这样的预期，新一轮的经济衰退将引发消费和企业债的违约潮，继而蚕食银行的收益。
然而我们应该看到，得益于良好的贷款增长和有力的成本管理，摩根大通和美国银行已在低利率环境下蓬勃发展了数年。这两家银行的收益增速远远超过了通胀。摩根大通2019年利润增长了12.2%，而美国银行增长了11.2%。尽管富国的收益在2019年有所下滑，而且丑闻的冲击也使这个红极一时的品牌黯淡无光，但它的收益在过去几年中一直十分稳健。
这三家银行也都打造了其数字和移动产品，来吸引千禧一代。因此，我们无法信誓旦旦地断言在线搅局者的崛起势必将导致传统领导者的势微。后者庞大的分行网络为信用卡、汽车或消费贷款提供了大量的低成本储蓄资源。
例如，假设这些大银行的收益按照4%的经济增速增长，而不是保持通胀的2%，那么就会获得额外的2%收益。如果是这样，美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行的回报率将分别变为15.9%、14.2%和15.6%。投资者还有可能从更高的估值中获得额外的回报。一旦冠状病毒疫情过去，利率回到其爆发前的水平（依然远低于平均水平），这三大银行只要继续保持一定的增速，那么就有可能说服投资者大幅推高其市盈率。
银行股的案例非常简单：这些银行有能力在零增速下运转，并让投资者依然获得两位数的回报率。这种超低股价外加向股东返还所有现金的政策着实是举世无双。在这个依然充满泡沫的股市中，这些遭到冷遇的股票可能会成为长线赢家。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Hunting for rare bargains in today's pricey stock market? Rummage through the deep-discount bin, and you'll find that the best deals may be the marquee-name big banks.
In an overall market that remains pricey despite the big corononavirus-driven selloff, shares of America's three largest banks—Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo—look incredibly cheap. They're offering plenty of what Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway is a large holder of all three, lauds as "margin of safety." Put simply, the Big Three are offering such a rich flow of earnings for each dollar paid for their shares, all of which they're returning to investors, that they can tread water from here and still provide low double-digit returns. If they show even modest growth, and investors embrace them as long-term winners, their returns could prove spectacular.
While the S&P 500 has dropped 8.1% since hitting a record high in mid-February, shares in the Big Three have fallen far more. Their descent started late last year, but the coronavirus panic quickened the fall. Since mid-December, BofA has dropped 21%, JPMorgan 16%, and Wells by 13%. All told, the Big Three have shed a colossal $143 billion in market cap.
The selloff has sunk their price-to-earnings ratios to levels that scream bargain. JPMorgan, BofA, and Wells are selling at multiples of 10.1, 10.2, and 11.2 based on their four-quarter, trailing reported earnings. That's half the S&P average of over 21. All three are returning at least 100% of their profits to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, and pledge to continue that policy. So let's examine which vehicle each bank is choosing to distribute those ample earnings, and assess the odds that the flow of profits will wax or wane in the future.
Last year, BofA posted profits of $29 billion and paid out even more. It sent shareholders $6.4 billion in dividends, 22% of the total, and returned $30 billion via repurchases. But let's assume that in future years, BofA's earnings simply grow with inflation at an estimated 2% annually, and it pays out 100% of earnings. Its market cap is $244 billion. Investors are getting a dividend yield of 2.6% ($6.4 billion in dividends on total value of $244 billion), up from 2.1% in December.
In addition, investors will reap capital gains that come in two parts, via share buybacks and that 2% earnings growth tied to the CPI. After paying those dividends, BofA has $22.6 billion, or three-quarters of the total, left over for repurchases, which would allow it to buy back 9.3% of its stock. Add 2% from advancing profits, and if the PE, the number you multiply earnings by to get the share price, simply remains steady, the shares will appreciate by the same 11.3% a year. (That's 9.3% from repurchases, plus 2% from growth in profits.)
Result: In a scenario in which profits simply track inflation, and the PE multiple remains at a paltry 10.1, BofA garners 2.6% from dividends, plus 11.3% in cap gains from buybacks, for a total return of 13.9%. That's rich, considering that junk bonds are yielding 5.5%, investment-grade corporate bonds 2.5%, and the 10-year Treasury under 1%.
The picture is similar at JPMorgan. That's remarkable, because investors are awarding little premium over BofA or even Wells to the industry's longtime champion, superbly managed by the redoubtable Jamie Dimon. Last year, JPMorgan booked earnings of $36.4 billion, an all-time banking record. It returned $11.1 billion, or 30.4% of the total, in dividends, for a yield of 3.6% ($11.1 billion on its total value of a sector-topping $364 billion). It deployed almost all the remainder, over $24 billion, to buy back stock. Once again, let's predict that JPMorgan follows the same policy of returning all profits to shareholders in the years to come, and simply lifts earnings with inflation. If its PE stays at that modest 11.1, JPMorgan would hand shareholders 3.6% from dividends, 2% from profit expansion, and 6.6% from buybacks—from spending $24 billion–plus in repurchase shares worth $364 billion. Total return: 12.2%.
Surprisingly, Wells Fargo, hammered in recent years by scandals and investigations, looks only slightly cheaper than JPMorgan, and its multiple at 10.2 is a whisker above BofA's. That picture is deceiving, because Wells' 2019 earnings of $19.5 billion, under new CEO Charles Scharf, were depressed by restructuring and other one-time charges. So adjusting for what may be a temporary dip, Wells is probably the cheapest of the lot.
Exhibit A is its 5% dividend yield. Wells has by far the lowest market cap of the Big Three at $167 billion, but it distributes a hefty $8.3 billion in dividends, even more than BofA, and three-quarters of JPMorgan's payout. If Wells devotes its remaining $11.2 billion to annual buybacks, it will add 6.6% in capital gains ($11.2 billion deployed to repurchase shares worth $167 billion). Tacking on 2% earnings growth, assuming its super-low PE remains constant, Wells would return 5% in dividends, 6.6% from buybacks, and 2% from earnings growth, good for 13.6%.
Why are the big-name banks so unloved? Judging from their multiples, investors don't expect their earnings to even grow with inflation. Instead, they're predicting years of long, slow decline. Markets aren't dumb, and a good case can be made that the universal banks face a bleak future. Today's record-low interest rates shrink margins on loans, economic growth that creates demand for consumer and corporate borrowing is waning, and the Big Three now face competition from a new generation of digital, online-only newcomers. Markets may also be baking in the expectation that the next recession will bring a wave in defaults on consumer and business loans that would sap earnings.
Consider, however, that JPMorgan and Bank of America have been thriving in a low-rate environment for several years because of good loan growth and strong cost discipline. Earnings for both banks have been far outpacing inflation. JPMorgan's profits rose 12.2% in 2019, while BofA's jumped 11.2%. And although Wells’ earnings fell in 2019, they've been mainly steady over the past several years despite the backlash from the scandals that tarnished the once-vaunted brand.
All three banks have also created their own menus of digital and mobile offerings to appeal to millennials. So it's by no means clear that the rise of online disrupters spells decline for the traditional leaders, whose gigantic branch networks provide pools of low-cost deposits available for credit card, auto, or commercial loans.
For example, if the big banks simply grow earnings with the economy at 4%, instead of matching inflation at 2%, they'd gain an extra 2%. If that happens, BofA would return 15.9%, JPMorgan 14.2%, and Wells 15.6%. They could also get a bonus bump from higher valuations. By continuing to show decent growth when the coronavirus scare passes and interest rates return to their pre-outbreak, still-well-below-average levels, the Big Three could sway investors to award them much higher PEs.
The case for bank stocks is basic: They can amble along in a no-growth walk, and you can still get double-digit returns. The combination of super-low prices and a policy of sending all cash to shareholders is hard to beat. In this still-frothy market, these unloved stocks could be long-term winners.
