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企业高管更害怕谁当选,特朗普还是希拉里?

Geoff Colvin 2016年11月08日

今年总统大选进程过于曲折,其中的不确定性最让高管们担心。

领导们现在最害怕什么?这个问题很有深度,最后的结果取决于你想探究到多深。

在最浅的层面,商业领袖们可以毫不避讳地谈起他们对于自己公司的恐惧。我们都知道,他们担心科技的迅速发展和监管带来的巨大压力。在今年早些时候的一次调查中,《财富》500强的首席执行官们给了我们这样的答案。更加具体的恐惧,则根据领袖们所处行业的不同而有所差异,例如,餐饮公司的首席执行官会担心城市和州提高最低工资标准,导致劳动力成本上涨。尽管它们都言之有理,不过首席执行官可以轻易地给出这类的回答,因为它们可以预测,而且广为人知。

在更深的层次上,他们担忧的是总统大选。商业领袖对这些事情的考虑更加周全,理由有二。首先,表明政治立场非常容易损失顾客。第二,表明和解释政治倾向相当于袒露自我,许多领袖对此感到不适。

通过非正式的调查,我发现在这次大选中,害怕唐纳德·特朗普甚于希拉里·克林顿的首席执行官更多。已经退休的波音(Boeing)首席执行官詹姆斯·麦克纳尼表示“目前的政治辩论之跌宕,已经让人感到有些害怕了。”他专门补充道,特朗普针对贸易的讨论“十分危险”。波士顿的软件企业家菲利普·博勒加德对《波士顿环球报》(Boston Globe)表示,特朗普当选总统,对企业家来说,就仿佛来到了“第八层地狱”。Hobby Lobby的首席执行官大卫·格林在今年早些时候也表示,特朗普缺乏幽默“简直要把我吓死”,不过由于害怕克林顿在最高法院的影响力,之后他的态度发生了180度的大转弯。

大公司的首席执行官很少表现出对克林顿的恐惧,部分原因可能在于他们知道她将赢得大选。不过少数著名领袖公开支持了特朗普,并表示他们害怕克林顿当选,其中一些声明确实令人惊讶。例如,谁能猜得到,贝宝(PayPal)的共同创始人和Palantir的主席彼得·泰尔,会是硅谷名流中几乎仅有的特朗普支持者?(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正

What scares leaders now? It’s the obvious Halloween question, so let’s take a look, focusing especially on business leaders. It’s a deep question, and the answer to it depends on how deeply you want to probe.

At the shallowest level, business leaders have no trouble speaking right up about fears for their businesses. We know they’re worried about the rapid pace of advancing technology and the fast-growing burden of regulation; that’s what Fortune 500 CEOs told us in a poll earlier this year. More specific fears vary with the leader’s industry; restaurant company CEOs are afraid of rising labor costs as cities and states decree higher minimum wages, for example. Answers like these are entirely valid, of course, but they’re easy for CEOs to give because they’re predictable and widely shared.

At a deeper level are fears about the presidential election. Business leaders are far more circumspect about those, for two reasons. First, stating a political preference is a guaranteed excellent way to lose customers. Second, stating and explaining one’s political leanings is personally revealing, and many leaders aren’t comfortable with that.

In this election, my informal survey found more CEOs declaring a fear of Donald Trump than of Hillary Clinton. Retired Boeing CEO James McNerney has said that “The precipitousness of the political debate is a little scary right now,” adding specifically thatTrump’s talk about trade is “a very dangerous discussion.” Boston software entrepreneur Philip Beauregard told the Boston Globe that for entrepreneurs, a Trump presidency would be “the eighth concentric circle of hell.” Hobby Lobby CEO David Green said earlier this year that Trump’s lack of humility “scares me to death,” but he later reversed himself because he feared Clinton’s effect on the Supreme Court.

Not many big-company CEOs have expressed fear of Clinton, maybe in part because they figure she’ll win. But a few famous names have publicly endorsed Trump, declaring their fear of a Clinton presidency, and some of the announcements have indeed been revealing. Who would have guessed, for example, thatPayPal co-founder and Palantir chairman Peter Thiel,almost alone among Silicon Valley celebrities, was a Trump supporter?

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