立即打开
沃伦·巴菲特:“永远不要唱衰美国”

沃伦·巴菲特:“永远不要唱衰美国”

Josh Funk, 美联社 2021年03月01日
巴菲特在今年的信中表达了对美国未来的信心。

2月27日,亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特致信股东,给投资者们鼓舞士气,激励他们保持对美国经济及其伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)旗下企业的信心。

巴菲特几乎没有提及去年那场使诸多企业黯然倒下的新冠疫情,而是着重强调伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司旗下的铁路、公用事业、保险业和股票的长期远景。不过他也说,尽管疫情仍然在持续,但随着时间的推移,美国的企业将继续蓬勃发展。

巴菲特写道:“尽管美国不过只有短短232年的历史,但还没有哪一个国家能够像美国那样,成为释放全人类潜力的孵化器。虽然其中经历过种种坎坷,但美国的经济发展依旧令人叹为观止。”

巴菲特的年度致函在商界向来备受好评,不仅因为他有着傲人的业务能力,还因为他很擅长用言简意赅的方式,深入浅出,把复杂的话题解释得通俗易懂。

但是,在许多投资者较为关心的问题上,诸如伯克希尔为何在几年里都未进行重大收购,或该公司新近对威瑞森电信(Verizon Communications)和雪佛龙(Chevron)的重大投资,他并没有给出太多的说明。

CFRA Research公司的分析师凯西·塞弗特(Cathy Seifert)说:“引起我注意的反而是信中没有提到的事情。我认为值得注意的是,纵观美国发生的一切,从疫情到所有的社会动荡,再到影响保险业的通货膨胀和气候变化——在信中居然一件都没有提到。”

巴菲特一直是民主党人,他在信中基本避谈政治话题,但确实表达了对美国未来的信心。

“我们一直怀有一项憧憬:希望宪法可以让我们成为一个‘更完美的联邦’。然而这方面的进展却有些迟缓,水平也参差不齐,还常常令人失望。但是,我们已经在大步前进,并且还会继续前进。我们坚定地认为:永远不要唱衰美国。”他说。

巴菲特表示,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司最有价值的资产之一是价值1200亿美元的苹果公司(Apple)股份——规模可以和它持有的自家BNSF铁路和伯克希尔公用事业部门的股份匹敌,尽管该公司仅拥有苹果5.4%的股份,但这暗示着它会对苹果进行长期投资的承诺。

巴菲特说,去年,他规模最大的投资之一是以250亿美元的资金回购了自己原来的伯克希尔股票。但即便在那之后、包括去年下半年在股市投入的数十亿美元,到2020年年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司仍然持有1383亿美元的现金储备。爱德华琼斯投资公司(Edward Jones)的分析师吉姆·沙纳汉表示,巴菲特对自己的股票进行大手笔的投资很关键。

除了这封信,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司表示其第四季度的利润增长了23%,达到358亿美元,每只A类股合23015美元,尽管疫情仍然给该公司大部分的业务造成了重创,包括BNSF铁路、几家主要的公用事业公司、Geico保险,以及各种制造商和零售商。去年292亿美元的收益(或每只合17909美元的A股)大部分与投资中尚未实现的账面利润有关。

巴菲特坚持认为,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的营收状况能够更好地反映季度业绩,因为这除去了可能存在较大误差的投资及其衍生品。用这种指标来衡量,伯克希尔的营收增长了近14%,达到50.2亿美元,即每只A类股合3224.74美元。和前一年的44.2亿美元(即每只A类股合2714.76美元)相比有所增加。

根据FactSet的调查,四位分析师预测,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司公布的其每只A类股营业利润为3,413.01美元。

航空零件制造商Precision Castparts公司是伯克希尔去年受打击最严重的业务之一,由于航空公司在疫情中惨淡经营,这项业务损失惨重。巴菲特去年减持了该公司将近100亿美元的股份,他说,同意花323亿美元收购这家公司是一个错误。

巴菲特说:“我不是被谁误导的——是我对Precision Castparts公司正常化盈利的潜力太乐观了。去年,整个航空业(Precision Castparts公司最重要的客户来源)都陷入衰退,我的错判也就暴露了出来。”

除了开设自己的商业课程,这位90岁的投资者还向股东们保证,他没有退休的打算。他说,伯克希尔最有经验的管理者之一曾经干到103岁才退休,而他还觉得这个退休年纪“早得离谱”。

巴菲特说,不同于往年,今年5月举行的线上年度会议将在洛杉矶而不是奥马哈进行。他将与错过了去年线上会议的投资搭档查理·芒格在会议现场重聚。伯克希尔的其他几位副主席——格雷格·阿贝尔和阿吉特·贾因也将在长达3.5小时的提问环节中回应人们的问题。这两人都被视为巴菲特的潜在继任者,自2018年以来,贾因掌管着伯克希尔所有的保险业务,而阿贝尔则负责除了保险以外的其他业务。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

2月27日,亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特致信股东,给投资者们鼓舞士气,激励他们保持对美国经济及其伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)旗下企业的信心。

巴菲特几乎没有提及去年那场使诸多企业黯然倒下的新冠疫情,而是着重强调伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司旗下的铁路、公用事业、保险业和股票的长期远景。不过他也说,尽管疫情仍然在持续,但随着时间的推移,美国的企业将继续蓬勃发展。

巴菲特写道:“尽管美国不过只有短短232年的历史,但还没有哪一个国家能够像美国那样,成为释放全人类潜力的孵化器。虽然其中经历过种种坎坷,但美国的经济发展依旧令人叹为观止。”

巴菲特的年度致函在商界向来备受好评,不仅因为他有着傲人的业务能力,还因为他很擅长用言简意赅的方式,深入浅出,把复杂的话题解释得通俗易懂。

但是,在许多投资者较为关心的问题上,诸如伯克希尔为何在几年里都未进行重大收购,或该公司新近对威瑞森电信(Verizon Communications)和雪佛龙(Chevron)的重大投资,他并没有给出太多的说明。

CFRA Research公司的分析师凯西·塞弗特(Cathy Seifert)说:“引起我注意的反而是信中没有提到的事情。我认为值得注意的是,纵观美国发生的一切,从疫情到所有的社会动荡,再到影响保险业的通货膨胀和气候变化——在信中居然一件都没有提到。”

巴菲特一直是民主党人,他在信中基本避谈政治话题,但确实表达了对美国未来的信心。

“我们一直怀有一项憧憬:希望宪法可以让我们成为一个‘更完美的联邦’。然而这方面的进展却有些迟缓,水平也参差不齐,还常常令人失望。但是,我们已经在大步前进,并且还会继续前进。我们坚定地认为:永远不要唱衰美国。”他说。

巴菲特表示,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司最有价值的资产之一是价值1200亿美元的苹果公司(Apple)股份——规模可以和它持有的自家BNSF铁路和伯克希尔公用事业部门的股份匹敌,尽管该公司仅拥有苹果5.4%的股份,但这暗示着它会对苹果进行长期投资的承诺。

巴菲特说,去年,他规模最大的投资之一是以250亿美元的资金回购了自己原来的伯克希尔股票。但即便在那之后、包括去年下半年在股市投入的数十亿美元,到2020年年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司仍然持有1383亿美元的现金储备。爱德华琼斯投资公司(Edward Jones)的分析师吉姆·沙纳汉表示,巴菲特对自己的股票进行大手笔的投资很关键。

除了这封信,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司表示其第四季度的利润增长了23%,达到358亿美元,每只A类股合23015美元,尽管疫情仍然给该公司大部分的业务造成了重创,包括BNSF铁路、几家主要的公用事业公司、Geico保险,以及各种制造商和零售商。去年292亿美元的收益(或每只合17909美元的A股)大部分与投资中尚未实现的账面利润有关。

巴菲特坚持认为,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的营收状况能够更好地反映季度业绩,因为这除去了可能存在较大误差的投资及其衍生品。用这种指标来衡量,伯克希尔的营收增长了近14%,达到50.2亿美元,即每只A类股合3224.74美元。和前一年的44.2亿美元(即每只A类股合2714.76美元)相比有所增加。

根据FactSet的调查,四位分析师预测,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司公布的其每只A类股营业利润为3,413.01美元。

航空零件制造商Precision Castparts公司是伯克希尔去年受打击最严重的业务之一,由于航空公司在疫情中惨淡经营,这项业务损失惨重。巴菲特去年减持了该公司将近100亿美元的股份,他说,同意花323亿美元收购这家公司是一个错误。

巴菲特说:“我不是被谁误导的——是我对Precision Castparts公司正常化盈利的潜力太乐观了。去年,整个航空业(Precision Castparts公司最重要的客户来源)都陷入衰退,我的错判也就暴露了出来。”

除了开设自己的商业课程,这位90岁的投资者还向股东们保证,他没有退休的打算。他说,伯克希尔最有经验的管理者之一曾经干到103岁才退休,而他还觉得这个退休年纪“早得离谱”。

巴菲特说,不同于往年,今年5月举行的线上年度会议将在洛杉矶而不是奥马哈进行。他将与错过了去年线上会议的投资搭档查理·芒格在会议现场重聚。伯克希尔的其他几位副主席——格雷格·阿贝尔和阿吉特·贾因也将在长达3.5小时的提问环节中回应人们的问题。这两人都被视为巴菲特的潜在继任者,自2018年以来,贾因掌管着伯克希尔所有的保险业务,而阿贝尔则负责除了保险以外的其他业务。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

Billionaire Warren Buffett encouraged investors to maintain their faith in America's economy and the businesses his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate owns in a reassuring letter to his shareholders on February 27.

Buffett hardly even addressed the coronavirus that ravaged many businesses last year, instead focusing on the long-term prospects for the railroad, utility, and insurance businesses and stocks that belong to Berkshire Hathaway. But he said U.S. business will thrive over time in spite of the pandemic.

"In its brief 232 years of existence, however, there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking," Buffett wrote.

Buffett's annual letter is always well read in the business world because of his remarkably successful track record and his knack for explaining complicated subjects in simple terms.

But he didn't offer much explanation for why Berkshire hasn't made a major acquisition in several years or discuss the company's recent major new investments in Verizon Communications and Chevron, leaving many investors wanting more.

"The one thing that caught my eye about the letter was sort of what it didn’t have," CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert said. "I think what was notable was the fact that given everything that’s gone on in this country from the pandemic to all the social unrest to the social inflation and climate change that’s impacting the insurance industry. It was striking to me that none of that was mentioned in the letter."

Buffett, a long-time Democrat, largely avoided politics in the letter but he did express faith in the future of the country.

"We retain our constitutional aspiration of becoming ‘a more perfect union.’ Progress on that front has been slow, uneven and often discouraging. We have, however, moved forward and will continue to do so. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America," he said.

Buffett said Berkshire's $120 billion stake in Apple is one of its most valuable assets—rivaling its BNSF railroad and Berkshire's utility division—even though it owns only 5.4% of the iPhone maker, hinting at a long-term commitment to the Apple investment.

Buffett said one of his biggest investments last year was the $25 billion repurchase of Berkshire's own shares. But even after that and several multibillion-dollar stock market investments in the second half of last year, Berkshire still held $138.3 billion cash at the end of 2020. Edward Jones analyst Jim Shanahan said it's significant that Buffett is investing that much in his own stock.

In addition to the letter, Berkshire said its fourth-quarter profits grew 23% to $35.8 billion, or $23,015 per Class A share, even though the pandemic continued to weigh on most of its businesses, which include BNSF railroad, several major utilities, Geico insurance, and an assortment of manufacturers and retailers. Most of the gain over last year’s $29.2 billion, or $17,909 per A share, was related to paper gains on the value of its investments.

Buffett maintains that Berkshire’s operating earnings offer a better view of quarterly performance because they exclude investments and derivatives, which can vary widely. By that measure, Berkshire’s operating earnings increased by nearly 14%, to $5.02 billion, or $3,224.74 per Class A share. That’s up from $4.42 billion, or $2,714.76 per Class A share, a year earlier.

The four analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Berkshire to report quarterly operating earnings per Class A share of $3,413.01.

One of Berkshire's hardest-hit businesses last year was aviation parts manufacturer Precision Castparts, which lost a significant amount of business because airlines struggled due to the pandemic. Buffett, who took a nearly $10 billion writedown on the value of Precision Castparts last year, said he made a mistake when he agreed to pay $32.3 billion for that business.

"No one misled me in any way—I was simply too optimistic about PCC’s normalized profit potential," Buffett said. "Last year, my miscalculation was laid bare by adverse developments throughout the aerospace industry, PCC’s most important source of customers."

Besides the business lessons Buffett offered in his missive, the 90-year-old investor reassured his stockholders that he has no plans to retire; he said one of Berkshire’s most-experienced managers had retired at the "ridiculously premature retirement age" of 103.

In a break from tradition, this year's annual meeting will be broadcast from Los Angeles instead of Omaha in May, Buffett said. He will be reunited on stage with his investing partner, Charlie Munger, who missed last year's virtual meeting. Berkshire's other vice chairmen—Greg Abel and Ajit Jain—will also be there to respond during the 3.5-hour-long question period. Abel and Jain are both viewed as potential successors to Buffett as CEO, and since 2018, Jain has overseen all of Berkshire’s insurance businesses while Abel has overseen the conglomerate’s non-insurance operations.

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App