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汤姆•斯泰尔:商界正在错失重大机会,而特朗普“什么都没做”

汤姆•斯泰尔:商界正在错失重大机会,而特朗普“什么都没做”

ROBERT HACKETT 2020年11月02日
“特朗普要么压根不知道自己在说什么,要么在撒谎。”

汤姆•斯泰尔自2月份退出总统竞选以来,一直在忙着宣传他最喜欢的气候议题,无论从政治上还是从公民层面,都有所涉及。

斯泰尔是民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔•拜登的顾问,是一位曾担任对冲基金经理的亿万富翁。斯泰尔警告说,如果不采取大胆、紧急行动,地球将面临“迫在眉睫的灾难”。但他表示,前景并非一片黯淡,人类仍有可能从生态破坏的虎口中夺取发展和繁荣。

目前,斯泰尔已经被提名为拜登内阁成员。《财富》对他进行了专访。他向我们阐释了民主党的经济复苏计划,将财政刺激和环境政策结合在一起产生成效。访谈的范围从他如何解读市场,到他最感兴趣的技术突破,如电动汽车、海上风力发电场等等。

为篇幅和简明起见,访谈经过编辑。

《财富》:美国正面临的更大危机是新冠肺炎疫情还是气候问题?

汤姆•斯泰尔:我不愿将它们分开看待。这两者都体现着我们处理自然事件的能力。关于如何处理事实、对待科学,我们需要时刻思考该采取哪些措施来规避灾难带来的冲击。拜登的计划是,解决这些问题的同时,改变我国高失业率的现状,一并创造高薪中产阶级就业机会。而特朗普总统几乎什么都没做。

拜登当选总统会带来什么?

拜登竞选团队提出的最重要的一件事是耗资2万亿美元的“重建美好”(build back better)计划。该计划将在4年内重建美国的基础设施,并着眼于改善气候和发展清洁能源——还不仅限于此,经济适用房及电动汽车充电站建设也被囊括在内。此外,这一计划还包括百万住宅供暖设备改善、写字楼空调系统重修,以及针对可再生能源利用的电网重建。很显然,这是一项巨大的基础设施改造计划,对于美国来说,它至关重要。

不过特朗普说,这个计划成本太高,会破坏经济?

事实正好相反。你看过特朗普先生的税收报告吗?在商业、经济方面,你会听信他的话吗?大概五六年前,我与汉克•保尔森和迈克•布隆伯格做了名为“风险企业”(risky business)的两项研究,得到了CEO们和政策领袖们的支持。我们的研究结果表明,使用清洁能源能够实现和创造更快速的经济增长、更多报酬更高的工作岗位以及更健康的公众身体,同时规避气候灾难的发生。这是一场“三赢”。清洁能源比化石燃料能源便宜。特朗普要么压根不知道自己在说什么,要么在撒谎。这是唯一的可能性。

拖延这些措施会让国家和地球付出怎样的代价?

不可估量。你们这一代人在生命中的每一天都将面对这个问题。

还有呢?

我住在加利福尼亚州。今年到目前为止,我们已经有超过400万英亩的土地被烧毁,而在此之前的记录是两年前的190万英亩。墨西哥湾的飓风数量创了记录。如果你有足够的勇气,去看一看格陵兰岛和南极冰川融化对海平面的影响吧。这不是一个你可以等上四年再去处理的问题。问题只会不断升级,直到我们想方设法解决为止。

中国正在作出大胆的承诺,目标到2060年实现“碳中和”。中国发表这样的声明,你怎么看?美国和中国是否有合作的希望?

我不希望美国人民遭受痛苦,我也不相信中国领导层希望中国人民遭受同样的痛苦。我们只能一起解决这个问题。这里有巨大的商业及经济机会可供发掘。我们得抓住它,不然只能任其白白流失。

美国应该把注意力集中在哪里?

考虑增长。我们的增长是通过在内燃机领域占据微小的市场份额,还是通过在电动汽车等领域开创全新的业务来实现?我们会通过建立新的燃煤电厂来实现增长吗?还是说,增长将通过开发全新的清洁发电方式来实现?

埃隆•马斯克会很欣赏你“兜售”电动汽车的。

我所能说的是,市场在大声疾呼——对于我们的发展方向,市场的声音真的、真的很大声。但共和党没有听进去。或许可以看看人们对未来的看法——无论是大银行的资产负债表,还是自由交易市场上相关公司的估值。我们想强调的是,我们希望美国能源独立,让我们来谈谈怎么做才能实现。

现在哪些技术最让你感到激动?

现在我们能看到的是,电池有多厉害,太阳能价格将在未来一两年降多少等等。但你能告诉我,离岸风力有多大吗?答案可能是“巨大的”。你能告诉我,清洁氢的发展方向吗?这些都是游戏规则的改变者。

作为一名前对冲基金经理,你对那些希望度过经济不确定时期的人有什么建议?

我不再提供投资建议。我总是对人们说,如果你想做一件事,就全身心地去做。但我要说的是,在过去,投资从来没有起过作用。我们真的需要是重建这个国家。开车四处看看,我们需要重建基础设施。这是一个巨大的商机。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

汤姆•斯泰尔自2月份退出总统竞选以来,一直在忙着宣传他最喜欢的气候议题,无论从政治上还是从公民层面,都有所涉及。

斯泰尔是民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔•拜登的顾问,是一位曾担任对冲基金经理的亿万富翁。斯泰尔警告说,如果不采取大胆、紧急行动,地球将面临“迫在眉睫的灾难”。但他表示,前景并非一片黯淡,人类仍有可能从生态破坏的虎口中夺取发展和繁荣。

目前,斯泰尔已经被提名为拜登内阁成员。《财富》对他进行了专访。他向我们阐释了民主党的经济复苏计划,将财政刺激和环境政策结合在一起产生成效。访谈的范围从他如何解读市场,到他最感兴趣的技术突破,如电动汽车、海上风力发电场等等。

为篇幅和简明起见,访谈经过编辑。

《财富》:美国正面临的更大危机是新冠肺炎疫情还是气候问题?

汤姆•斯泰尔:我不愿将它们分开看待。这两者都体现着我们处理自然事件的能力。关于如何处理事实、对待科学,我们需要时刻思考该采取哪些措施来规避灾难带来的冲击。拜登的计划是,解决这些问题的同时,改变我国高失业率的现状,一并创造高薪中产阶级就业机会。而特朗普总统几乎什么都没做。

拜登当选总统会带来什么?

拜登竞选团队提出的最重要的一件事是耗资2万亿美元的“重建美好”(build back better)计划。该计划将在4年内重建美国的基础设施,并着眼于改善气候和发展清洁能源——还不仅限于此,经济适用房及电动汽车充电站建设也被囊括在内。此外,这一计划还包括百万住宅供暖设备改善、写字楼空调系统重修,以及针对可再生能源利用的电网重建。很显然,这是一项巨大的基础设施改造计划,对于美国来说,它至关重要。

不过特朗普说,这个计划成本太高,会破坏经济?

事实正好相反。你看过特朗普先生的税收报告吗?在商业、经济方面,你会听信他的话吗?大概五六年前,我与汉克•保尔森和迈克•布隆伯格做了名为“风险企业”(risky business)的两项研究,得到了CEO们和政策领袖们的支持。我们的研究结果表明,使用清洁能源能够实现和创造更快速的经济增长、更多报酬更高的工作岗位以及更健康的公众身体,同时规避气候灾难的发生。这是一场“三赢”。清洁能源比化石燃料能源便宜。特朗普要么压根不知道自己在说什么,要么在撒谎。这是唯一的可能性。

拖延这些措施会让国家和地球付出怎样的代价?

不可估量。你们这一代人在生命中的每一天都将面对这个问题。

还有呢?

我住在加利福尼亚州。今年到目前为止,我们已经有超过400万英亩的土地被烧毁,而在此之前的记录是两年前的190万英亩。墨西哥湾的飓风数量创了记录。如果你有足够的勇气,去看一看格陵兰岛和南极冰川融化对海平面的影响吧。这不是一个你可以等上四年再去处理的问题。问题只会不断升级,直到我们想方设法解决为止。

中国正在作出大胆的承诺,目标到2060年实现“碳中和”。中国发表这样的声明,你怎么看?美国和中国是否有合作的希望?

我不希望美国人民遭受痛苦,我也不相信中国领导层希望中国人民遭受同样的痛苦。我们只能一起解决这个问题。这里有巨大的商业及经济机会可供发掘。我们得抓住它,不然只能任其白白流失。

美国应该把注意力集中在哪里?

考虑增长。我们的增长是通过在内燃机领域占据微小的市场份额,还是通过在电动汽车等领域开创全新的业务来实现?我们会通过建立新的燃煤电厂来实现增长吗?还是说,增长将通过开发全新的清洁发电方式来实现?

埃隆•马斯克会很欣赏你“兜售”电动汽车的。

我所能说的是,市场在大声疾呼——对于我们的发展方向,市场的声音真的、真的很大声。但共和党没有听进去。或许可以看看人们对未来的看法——无论是大银行的资产负债表,还是自由交易市场上相关公司的估值。我们想强调的是,我们希望美国能源独立,让我们来谈谈怎么做才能实现。

现在哪些技术最让你感到激动?

现在我们能看到的是,电池有多厉害,太阳能价格将在未来一两年降多少等等。但你能告诉我,离岸风力有多大吗?答案可能是“巨大的”。你能告诉我,清洁氢的发展方向吗?这些都是游戏规则的改变者。

作为一名前对冲基金经理,你对那些希望度过经济不确定时期的人有什么建议?

我不再提供投资建议。我总是对人们说,如果你想做一件事,就全身心地去做。但我要说的是,在过去,投资从来没有起过作用。我们真的需要是重建这个国家。开车四处看看,我们需要重建基础设施。这是一个巨大的商机。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

Since Tom Steyer dropped out of the presidential race in February, he has been busy proselytizing about his favorite topic: climate. Both the political and the earthly, that is.

An advisor to Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden, Steyer is warning that the planet faces imminent calamity if bold and urgent action isn’t taken. But it’s not all doom and gloom, says Steyer, a billionaire and former hedge fund manager. Humanity may yet snatch prosperity from the jaws of eco-devastation.

Fortune caught up with Steyer, whose name has been floated for a possible Biden cabinet placement. He explained the Democratic ticket’s economic recovery plans, which tie together financial stimulus and environmental policy. The discussion ranged from how Steyer is reading the markets to what technological breakthroughs he’s most excited about (see: electric vehicles, offshore windfarms, and more).

Here is that conversation, edited and condensed for clarity.

Fortune: Which is the bigger crisis facing this country, COVID or climate?

Tom Steyer: I don't separate those. It is our ability to handle the natural world. It's about dealing with the facts, dealing with the science, and taking into account what you need to do to avoid disaster. Joe Biden intends to deal with them in a way that also addresses our high unemployment rates and the need to create good paying middle-class jobs. Mr. Trump has done nothing but whiff.

What would a Biden presidency entail?

The biggest thing the Biden campaign has proposed is the $2 trillion “build back better” plan to rebuild the infrastructure of America over four years with an eye toward climate and clean energy—but it’s not limited to that. It includes building affordable housing and charging stations for electric vehicles. It includes weatherizing millions of houses, redoing HVACs in commercial buildings, and rebuilding the grid so it can take in renewables. It’s a huge infrastructure deal. This is critical.

The president says the plan costs too much and will destroy the economy.

The exact opposite is true. Did you read Mr. Trump’s taxes? Are you going to listen to this guy on business or economics? I did two studies five or six years ago with Hank Paulson and Mike Bloomberg with the support of American CEOs and policy leaders called “risky business” to show that moving to clean energy creates faster growth, more and better paying jobs, and better health, while avoiding the climate disaster. It is a win, win, win. Clean energy is cheaper than fossil fuel energy. Trump either doesn't know what he's talking about, or he's lying. Those are the only possibilities.

What is the cost to the country—or the planet—of delaying action?

Incalculable. Your generation is going to have to deal with this every single day for the rest of your lives.

Say more.

I live in California. We've had over 4 million acres burned so far this year. The record before this was two years ago, 1.9 million acres. The Gulf has a record number of hurricanes. If you have a strong stomach, read about how the now-considered-unstoppable melting of the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers will affect sea level. This is not a problem you can wait four years to deal with. No, this problem will just keep escalating until we get on top of it.

China is making bold commitments. It aims to be “carbon neutral” by 2060. Do you believe, or trust, China’s leadership when it makes such pronouncements? Is there any hope of the U.S. and China working together?

I do not want the people of the United States to suffer horribly, and I don't believe the Chinese leadership wants the people of China to suffer horribly. We can only solve this together. There is a huge business and economic opportunity up for grabs here. We can either seize it or not.

Where should the U.S. focus its attention?

Think about growth. Is growth going to come by us taking marginal market share in the internal combustion business, or is it going to come by us creating a whole new business in things like electric vehicles? Are we going to get growth by coming up with new coal plants? Or are we going to get growth by coming up with entirely new clean ways of creating electricity?

Elon Musk would appreciate your touting electric vehicles.

All I can say is the market is speaking really loudly here—really, really loudly in terms of where we're going. The Republican Party isn't listening. Just take a look at where people think the future is—whether that's the balance sheets of our biggest banks, or the valuations of companies on freely traded exchanges. We say we want America to be energy independent. Let's talk about how we're going to do that.

Which technologies excite you most right now?

We can see how much better the battery is going to be and where solar prices are going in the next year or two. But can you really tell me how big offshore wind is? It could be huge. Can you really tell me where we're going with clean hydrogen? That is a game changer.

As a former hedge fund manager, what advice might you have for people looking to get through this time of economic uncertainty?

I don't really give investment advice anymore. I always say to people, if you want to do it, do it full time—be completely committed. But I will say this. It has never worked to invest in the past. We literally need to rebuild this country. Drive around and take a look. We need to rebuild the infrastructure and we have to do it on accelerated basis. This is a huge business opportunity.

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