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投资理财

2020年的“风险资产”仍将上涨

Rey Mahsayekhi 2019年12月09日

经济学家认为,全球股市明年预计将超过债市,公司利润的反弹会增加投资回报。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中美贸易争端的最新评论引发股市下跌。图片来源:Scott Heins—Getty Images

在新的一年即将来临之际,贸易争端的逆风仍然在破坏全球经济、阻碍增长、削弱商界信心。但这并不一定意味着股市投资者会因此在2020年感到压力。

美国银行美林证券(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的经济学家在12月3日表示,相反,全球股市明年预计将超过债市,公司利润的反弹会增加投资回报, 价值股和表现不佳的欧洲市场也可能出现上扬。

今年以来,资本“令人难以置信”地流出股市、流入债市,美银美林的研究投资委员会主席杰瑞德·伍达德表示,该行明年更看好股票和大宗商品等“风险资产”,而非债券等“防御性配置”。

伍达德指出,标普500指数明年有望触及3,300点,欧洲股市可能上涨8%,受到脱欧冲击的英国股市最终可能反弹5%。该银行认为,2020年美国股市的回报率将落后于欧洲和新兴市场,而鉴于全球市场上有价值12万亿美元的负收益债券,美国的高评级公司债仍然“特别有吸引力”。

伍达德补充说,今年美国公司的利润增长主要“得益于”公司以股票回购的形式“买进股票”,这样“提高每股收益很容易”。他表示,由于企业回购问题“在政治上引发了更多争议”,加上被监管的阴影笼罩,企业明年可能会加速回购,“趁着还能做抓紧”。

与此同时,美银美林的美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚呼吁“2020年有意义地加速[公司]利润”。萨勃拉曼尼亚鼓励投资者将目光投向美国市场以外的地方,她将美国市场描述为“共识性增持”市场,认为欧洲、英国市场以及“世界其他地方”涨幅会更大。

以下是美银美林的分析师在2020年展望中提到的其他一些值得注意的经济和市场问题:

“小气”的中美贸易协议只是长期争端中的急救绷带

尽管相互矛盾的信号让市场似乎每周都升升降降,但中美之间达成贸易协定已经万事俱备,不过美银美林的全球经济主管伊桑·哈里斯称其为中美长期贸易争端中的“小协定”。哈里斯说,这是因为特朗普政府有“强烈的动机”达成协议,从而在明年秋天的总统大选前提振人们对经济的信心。

更重要的是,虽然美国目前为止对中国商品加征的大部分关税主要影响制造业等领域——迫使有关公司重新调整它们的供应链——但最后一轮等待加征的关税将不成比例地影响消费品领域,会对美国人的口袋产生更加突出的影响。

然而,贸易争端对商业信心的影响最大。哈里斯指出,即便是那些将供应链从中国转移到越南的公司,在总统今年早些时候威胁可能对越南采取行动的情况下,也不得不保持警惕。他表示,“贸易争端的主要影响是冻结了每一家[拥有国际业务的]公司的商业投资。”

与此同时,在世界上最大的两个经济体之间将要持续的长期争端中,一项“小协议”仅仅意味着一次停火。“这场贸易争端与大豆无关;关乎的是技术和国家安全。”

哈里斯补充说,一旦大选年过去,争议很可能再次“升级”。“很多公司会担心两年后我们的处境。”

“惨败”的价值股将东山再起

由于贸易争端可能没有什么结果,而巨大的政治不确定性即将出现,到2020年,美国国内科技和医疗行业的股票可能会遭遇阵痛。萨勃拉曼尼亚表示,考虑到科技公司在全球贸易中巨大的风险敞口,以及在即将到来的总统大选前人们对医保的关注,这两个行业可能会受到不利宏观环境的“最大压力”。

她表示,因此,市场可能会“从由成长型股票引领转向由价值型股票引领”,受益者或将包括交易价格一直处于极低水平的金融类股票。

萨勃拉曼尼亚表示:“我们很少会像今天这样,看到价值型股票如此便宜,一败涂地。”她补充称,现在是“根据估值”买入相对便宜股票的“大好时机”。(在美国之外,伍达德称欧洲金融股是“世界上最有价值的机会之一。”)

经济“触底”可能会伤害消费者

美银美林美国经济部门的负责人迈克尔·迈耶表示,与近期相比,明年的经济增长前景相对悲观,2020年美国经济预计增长1.7%。对其他经济体的预测也同样不温不火;哈里斯说,以中国为例,明年的经济增长率预计为5.6%,这一数字除了没有达到6%的增长目标外,或许会被“官方数据”夸大。

贸易争端很可能会让美国“损失0.7个百分点”的增长率,哈里斯补充道。迈耶说,尽管美国国内制造业是受到逆风冲击最严重的行业之一,但整体经济“回溢效应最小”。消费支出依然活力十足,持续强劲的就业市场也可以支撑不会出现经济衰退的观点。

然而,这种情况可能在2020年改变。迈耶预测,明年消费者支出“将逐渐放缓”,而非农就业增长也可能放缓——不过保证每月新增12万个工作岗位的速度将使失业率保持在4%以下。

迈耶补充说,仅凭这些数字还不足以促使美联储采取进一步降息行动。(她指出,“美联储目前很可能什么都不做。”)但她表示,如果贸易争端升级,市场开始“表现糟糕”,美联储将采取行动,防止经济状况进一步恶化。

尽管对经济增长的预期不温不火,但美银美林对明年经济前景总体持乐观态度。世界银行预测,如果美国和中国达成某种贸易解决方案,2020年上半年经济状况将“触底”,下半年经济增长将“小幅提振”。

糟糕的CEO已经“摧毁”了5,000亿美元的价值

萨勃拉曼尼亚指出,眼下与环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)有关的标准越来越流行,她把ESG和史上CEO变更“创纪录的一年”联系起来。她表示,无论是“不当行为”还是“在做出关键决策时没有考虑到关键利益相关者”,上市公司与公司治理相关的争议都给股东造成了“非常高昂的代价”。

萨勃拉曼尼亚表示,这类争议在2019年“摧毁了美国近5,000亿美元的市值”,其中“很大一部分”是“被ESG方面的违规行为消灭的”。

她补充说,这些损失对“股票表现产生了非常重大的影响”, 预计未来几年,ESG标准对公众投资者的重要性只会上升。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Going into the new year, the global economy remains wracked by trade war-related headwinds that have hampered growth and hindered business confidence. But that doesn’t necessarily mean stock market investors will bear the brunt of this pain in 2020.

To the contrary, equity markets globally are expected to outperform bond markets next year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said on December 3—citing an expected rebound in corporate earnings that will fuel investor returns, as well as upside to be found in value stocks and in underperforming markets like Europe.

After a year that saw “incredible” capital outflows out of equities and into bonds, Jared Woodard, the head of BoAML’s research investment committee, said the bank is more bullish on “risky assets” like equities and commodities than it is “defensive allocations” like bonds.

Woodard pointed to an S&P 500 that is expected to hit 3,300 points next year, as well as European equities that could rally 8% and a Brexit-hit U.K. market that could finally rebound as much as 5%. The bank noted that U.S. stock returns are expected to lag behind their European and emerging market counterparts in 2020, while high-grade U.S. corporate debt remains “particularly attractive” given $12 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt in the global markets.

Much of the upside in U.S. corporate profits this year was “driven by companies buying up their shares” in the form of buybacks, Woodard added—a dynamic that made it “easy for [companies'] earnings per share to improve.” With the matter of corporate buybacks becoming “more politically contentious” and the specter of regulation looming over the issue, companies could accelerate buybacks next year to “get in while they can,” he said.

In line with that, Savita Subramanian, BoAML’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, called for a “meaningful acceleration of [corporate] profits in 2020.” Subramanian encouraged investors to look beyond the U.S. market—which she described as “consensus overweight”—in favor of greater upside in Europe, the U.K., and “other parts of the world.”

Here are some other notable economic and market-related issues that BoAML analysts touched on in their outlook for 2020:

“Skinny” trade deal only a bandaid on long-term U.S.-China dispute

Despite conflicting signals that send the market either climbing or reeling on a seemingly weekly basis, it appears “the stars are aligned” for what Ethan Harris, BoAML’s head of global economics, termed a “skinny deal” between the U.S. and China in their ongoing trade dispute. That’s because the Trump administration has “strong incentive” to strike an accord that will help fuel confidence in the economy going into next fall’s presidential election, Harris said.

What’s more, while most of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by the U.S. to date have predominantly impacted sectors like manufacturing—forcing companies to recalibrate their supply chains—the “last round” of pending tariffs that lay in waiting would disproportionately affect consumer goods, which would more acutely hit Americans’ pockets.

Still, the trade war’s greatest impact has been on business confidence. Even companies that have shifted their supply chains from China to Vietnam, Harris noted, have had to stay on their toes amid the president’s threat of possible action against Vietnam earlier this year. “The main effect of the trade war has been freezing up business investment for any company” with an international presence, he said.

A “skinny deal,” meanwhile, would be a mere ceasefire amid what’s poised to be a long-term dispute between the world’s two largest economies. “This trade war isn’t about soybeans; it’s about technology and national security,” Subramanian noted.

Harris added that there could well be another “escalation” in the dispute once the election year has passed. “A lot of companies are going to be worried about where we are two years from now.”

“Bombed out” value stocks primed for a comeback

With the trade war likely not going anywhere and immense political uncertainty on the horizon, domestic equity sectors like tech and health care could be in for some pain in 2020. Those two sectors are “likely to be pressured the most” by macro headwinds, according to Subramanian, given tech companies’ exceptional exposure to global trade and the spotlight that’s been placed on health care in advance of the upcoming presidential election.

In turn, the market could be “shifting from an environment where growth stocks have led to one where value stocks will lead,” she said—with the likes of financial stocks, which have been trading at exceptionally cheap valuations, among the beneficiaries.

“We’re very rarely at a point where value stocks are as cheap and bombed out as they are today,” Subramanian said, adding that it’s a “very good time” to buy relatively cheap stocks “just on valuation.” (Beyond the U.S., Woodard described European financial stocks as “among the deepest value opportunities in the world.”)

Economic “bottoming” could hurt consumers

The economic growth picture for next year is relatively bearish compared to recent times, with the U.S. economy to expand 1.7% in 2020, according to BoAML head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer. There’s similarly tepid forecast for other economies; China, for instance, is projected to grow 5.6% next year, which besides missing the country’s targeted 6% growth rate could well be inflated by “official government stats,” Harris said.

The trade war may well have “sliced off seventh-tenths of a percent” off of the U.S.’s growth rate, Harris added. Yet while domestic manufacturing is among the sectors to have borne the brunt of the headwinds, the overall economy has experienced “minimum spillback,” Meyer said. Consumer spending remains robust, while a continually strong labor market would back the argument that a recession is not on the cards.

That could change in 2020, however. Meyer predicted that consumer spending “should slow on a trend basis” next year, while non-farm payroll growth could also decelerate—albeit to a rate of around 120,000 jobs per month that would keep unemployment under 4%.

Such numbers alone wouldn’t be enough to spur the Federal Reserve into action as far as further interest rate cuts, Meyer added. (“The Fed would very much like to do nothing at this point,” she noted.) But should the trade war escalate and the markets begin to “behave badly,” she said the Fed would move to prevent any further deterioration in economic conditions.

Despite its lukewarm growth projections, BoAML delivered an altogether positive outlook of the economy next year. The bank forecasts a “bottoming” of conditions in the first half of 2020 that would give way to a “mini-boost” in growth in the second half of the year—provided the U.S. and China reach some sort of trade resolution.

Bad CEOs have “destroyed” $500 billion in value

Subramanian noted the increased prevalence of ESG-related criteria in the market, and tied it in with what she described as “record year” in terms of CEO turnover. Whether it was “improper conduct” or “not having key stakeholders in mind when making key decisions,” she said governance-related controversies at public companies had proven “very costly” to shareholders.

According to Subramanian, such controversies had “destroyed almost half a trillion dollars of U.S. market capitalization” in 2019, with a “huge chunk” of that value “wiped out by infractions on the ESG front.”

Those losses have had a “very material impact on stock performance,” she added, with the importance of ESG criteria among public investors only expected to grow in the coming years.

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