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美国股市连创新高,但涨幅远不如奥巴马时代

Erik Sherman 2019年11月05日

在特朗普当选之前,市场已经上涨了很长一段时间,所以只看绝对数字会产生误导。

早在美联储最近下调目标利率区间之前,唐纳德·特朗普已经在推特上重提他最喜欢的两个话题:美联储降息幅度不够,股市的表现要归功于他和共和党。

总统和股票市场之间的关系没有那么简单。包括总体经济状况、投资者情绪、利率、金融刺激和全球商业环境在内的许多因素都会影响股票的表现。但总统也并非不重要。

“政策对经济增长可能有帮助,也可能没有帮助。”投资研究公司和价值投资基金管理公司KORR Acquisitions Group的首席执行官肯尼斯·奥尔说,“政策由总统和他的政府主导,但国会必须通过法律和预算来影响这些政策。”

因此,正如《财富》杂志在6月初所做的那样,我们决定研究一下市场在奥巴马和特朗普执政期间的表现。我们从雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)下载了道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数、纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数的历史数据,选择了两位总统任期中相同的时间段进行比较——从1月20日就职到执政第三年的10月31日。

因为在特朗普当选之前,市场已经上涨了很长一段时间,所以只看绝对数字会产生误导。因此,《财富》杂志选择将两位总统任期内的市场表现与他上任第一天进行比较,以便准确比较两位总统任内的市场增长。

下面是每个指数的变化图表和分析。如果你现在就想知道答案,答案是:奥巴马执政期间市场增长要强势得多,但有一点必须要提醒你注意:就在奥巴马上任前刚刚发生了金融危机,市场因此摇摇欲坠,有很大的上升空间。此外,国会实施的大规模金融刺激计划也有助于推动市场增长。

标普500指数

标准普尔500指数的成份股都是大公司,是以市值作为衡量标准、纽交所或纳斯达克交易所最大的500家上市公司。下图显示了每位总统任内标普500指数的变化情况,同样采用了标准化的数据以便在相同的尺度下进行比较。

Before the Fed lowered its target interest rate range on Wednesday, Donald Trump was already on Twitter, touching on two of his favorite topics: how the Fed doesn’t lower interest rates enough and that the stock market’s performance is thanks to him and his Republican pals.

The connection between a president and equity markets isn’t straightforward. Many factors—the general health of the economy, investors sentiment, interest rates, financial stimulus, and global business conditions, for example—affect how stocks perform. But presidents also aren’t unimportant.

“Policies may or may not be helpful for economic growth,” says Kenneth Orr, CEO of investment research firm and value investment fund manager KORR Acquisitions Group. “Policies are led by the President and his Administration, but Congress must pass laws and budgets to affect those policies.”

And so, as Fortune did in early June, we decided to take a look at how the markets performed during the Administrations of Barack Obama and Trump. We downloaded historical information on the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indexes from Yahoo Finance. Then we compared the same periods for both presidents: from inauguration on January 20 to Oct. 31 in their third year of office.

Because the market had already run up a long way before Trump was elected, the absolute numbers would be misleading. Instead, Fortune compared the performance under each president to his initial inauguration day to get an accurate comparison of growth under each.

Below are graphs and analysis for each of the sectors. For those who want the quick answer, market growth was considerably stronger under Obama, but there is an important caveat. The financial crash that occurred immediately before Obama took office left markets reeling, so there was a lot of room for them to move. Also, the massive financial stimulus enabled by Congress helped drive growth.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 is all about large companies: the 500 largest public companies on either the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or Nasdaq exchange as measured by market capitalization. Here is a graph showing the index’s progress under each president, again normalized so both can be compared on the same scales.

*100%等于上任第一天的全部市值。
 

横轴表示执政的天数。纵轴上,100%表示就职第一天的市价,因此每条线的起点都是100%。超过100%的值表示增长(例如,122%表示比第一天高22%),低于100%的值表示降低(84%表示比第一天低16%)。

奥巴马就职一个月左右,市场整体下行,受到沉重打击,每张图表都出现了同样的下跌。2011年10月底,标普500指数达到奥巴马上任第一天的156%,这意味着该指数上涨了56%。在特朗普执政期间,增幅为34%,比奥巴马执政时期低了22个百分点。

道琼斯指数

道琼斯指数(道琼斯工业平均指数,Dow Jones Industrial Average)由30家大盘股公司组成,均为道琼斯公司(Dow Jones & Company)专门挑选出来用以代表整体经济。它们都是在纽交所或纳斯达克上市的大型公司,收益稳定。

Each horizontal axis shows the number of days in office. On the vertical axis, 100% means the same value on the first day in office, which is why each line starts at 100%. Any value over 100% shows an increase (122% means 22% higher than the first day, for example) and a value under 100% shows a decrease (84% means 16% less than the first day).

The downward dip about a month in under the Obama administration is a general blow the entire market took and which appears in each graph. By the end of October 2011, the S&P 500 hit 156% of the value it had on Obama’s first day, which means the index increased by 56%. Under Trump, the increase was 34%, or 22 percentage points lower than the gain under Obama.

Dow

While the Dow (or Dow Jones Industrial Average) consists of 30 large cap companies, they are chosen specifically by Dow Jones & Company in an attempt to represent the broader economy. They are all large public companies with stable earnings that are on the NYSE or Nasdaq.

*100%等于上任第一天的全部市值。

 

两届政府之间道指的差异要小得多。奥巴马执政期间,道指的百分比变化大约为150%,也就是说比初始值增加了50%。在特朗普执政期间,百分比变化为136%,即增长了36%,比奥巴马政府少14个百分点。

纳斯达克指数

纳斯达克有两个意思。它和纽约证券交易所一样,是一个人们可以买卖股票的证券交易所。但它同时也是股票指数,成份股中有很多是高科技公司。因此,人们已经把纳斯达克指数视为投资者快速了解创新依赖型公司最新动向的方式。

The difference in the Dow between the two administrations is significantly smaller. The percentage change under Obama was roughly 150%, meaning a 50% increase over the initial value. Under Trump, the 136% change, or 36% gain in value, was 14 percentage points less.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq means two things. Like the NYSE, it’s a stock exchange where people can buy and sell shares. But it is also an index of stocks, many of which are high tech companies. So the Nasdaq index has come to be considered a quick way for investors to check the pulse of companies that depend heavily on innovation.

*100%等于上任第一天的全部市值。

 

纳斯达克指数的差别很大。从特朗普上任第一天算起,到目前为止,纳斯达克指数的百分比变化为149%,涨幅为49%。而在奥巴马执政期间,同期百分比变化为186%,涨幅为86%,比特朗普高出37个百分点。

罗素2000指数

以上所有指数的成分股都是大盘股或大部分是大盘股。罗素2000指数正好相反:由2000家规模最小的上市公司组成。投资者用这个指数来监测小公司的发展。

The difference here is strong. Up to now, measured from Trump’s first day, the Nasdaq has seen a 149% change for an increase of 49%. At the same point under Obama, it was a change of 186%—an icrease of 86%, or 37 percentage points more than for Trump.

Russell 2000

All of the above indexes are either entirely or heavily large cap stocks. The Russell 2000 is the opposite: 2000 of the smallest public companies. Investors use this index to monitor the progress of smaller companies.

 

*100%等于上任第一天的全部市值。
 

罗素2000指数在两位总统执政期间的表现差异最大。奥巴马执政期间的变化幅度为171%,增幅为71%,远比特朗普执政期间的变化幅度116%(仅增长16%)高,高出55个百分点。

但两位总统执政期间的经济环境和具体情况各不相同。当前经济进入减速周期的公认事实以及奥巴马上台后实施的大规模经济刺激计划等因素都对结果产生了影响。不过,过去的十年漫长而表现强劲。

“每位总统都应该算赢。”金融顾问、前外汇交易员莫里斯·阿姆斯特朗表示,“我认为现任政府应当因为维持经济不下沉而赢得大家的赞扬,而且早期实现反弹要比后面容易。”

至于不管谁将在2020年胜出?“下一任总统的就职礼物可能是经济衰退。”阿姆斯特朗说。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

The Russell showed the largest difference under the two presidents. A change of 171%—a gain of 71%— during the Obama administration was a whopping 55 percentage points more than Trump’s 116% change, only a 16% increase.

But the economy climate and particulars for each president vary widely. Such factors as a generally acknowledged slowing business cycle now and the massive stimulus packages put into place as Obama took office have impacts on results. Still, it’s been a long and strong ride for the last ten years.

“Each president deserves a win,” says financial advisor and former currency trader Morris Armstrong. “I think that the government deserves collective credit for keeping our economy afloat, that the early bounce is easier than the mature bounce.”

As to whoever wins in 2020? “The next president will likely have a recession as an inauguration gift,” Armstrong says.

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