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投资理财

这个行业刚刚崭露头角,八家头部企业有望跑赢大市

Annie Sraders 2019年08月15日

分析师称,这些企业全都是成长型行业中的成长型公司。

在去年7月Tilray进入股市成为首只大麻股后,几十家同类公司纷纷效仿。评级机构晨星的分析师克里斯托弗·英顿预计,到2030年,大麻市场整体规模将是现在的9倍。

英顿对《财富》杂志说:“这些企业全都是成长型行业中的成长型公司。”多家主要大麻公司都在烧钱,但英顿表示这在意料之中。他指出,许多较大的公司都有良好的利润率,毛利润也为正,而且其“收入有巨大的增长潜力”。

那么,对于大家现在就可以交易的一些顶尖大麻股,分析师有何评价呢?

1—Tilray (持有)

这家加拿大大麻公司于7月底上市,成为市场上第一只大麻股。IPO以来,该公司股价经历了剧烈震荡。

去年Tilray急剧下跌,最近则持续上涨,原因是有消息称该公司将收购酒精糖果制造商Smith & Sinclair,从而创造出含有大麻二酚的产品。

晨星的分析师英顿说Tilray“估值合理”,他对这只股票的评级是“持有”。Cowen & Co.的分析师薇薇安·阿泽尔则略乐观一些。Tilray与彼得·蒂尔资助的私募股权控股公司Privateer进行下游合并后,阿泽尔维持Tilray的“跑赢大市”评级不变。

Tilray还与百威英博联手研究大麻饮品,分析师则普遍看好它们在饮料方面的合作。

英顿对此的评价是:“我会关注其策略。5至10年后这个行业一定会发生变化,所以重要的一点是考虑到这些公司在开发方面的着眼点及其开发所针对的终端市场。”

2—Cronos (持有/卖出)

分析师不那么看好Cronos,主要是因为它的估值及其选择的合作伙伴。

晨星的分析师英顿说他们保持Cronos的“卖出”评级不变,而且认为市场“对这只股票的估值很充分,甚至有些偏高”,原因是和大麻行业的其他战略合作相比,Cronos和烟草集团高特利结为合作伙伴“不那么合理”。

去年年底,高特利,也就是菲利普-莫里斯的母公司向Cronos大举投资18亿美元,占其股本的45%。但有些分析师不那么肯定这是件好事。

英顿说:“从开发食品或饮料的角度可以看到和Constellation以及百威英博有经营协同,以及在那个领域怎样树立品牌和经销,但我们并没有真正看到一家烟草公司和一家大麻公司之间也有这样的协同效应。”他认为烟草消费者要的是产品和品牌保持不变,而大麻是一种类似于酒精的“体验”,因此Cronos的这项措施不怎么合理。

Cowen & Co.的分析师阿泽尔则给出了“与大市持平”评级,她说“估值和实现盈利的道路较长让我们无法”给予更高的评级。

过去六个星期Cronos持续下滑,目前股价在14美元至15美元之间波动。

3—OrganiGram (买入)

分析师看好呈上升态势的加拿大大麻产品生产商OrganiGram。

他们全都大力推荐“买入”这只股票,而今年年初以来,OrganiGram已经上涨了70%左右。

和加拿大所有10个省都签了供应协议的加拿大大麻公司只有四家,作为其中一员,OrganiGram位置有利,有望在加拿大和其他地区进一步增长。它还通过与Eviana的合作将大麻二酚输入欧洲市场。

4—Hexo (买入)

虽然Hexo最近股价暴跌,但分析师整体上仍然相当看好这只股票。这家大麻产品制造商在美国市场的布局尤其有吸引力。

GMP Securities的分析师罗伯特·费根告诉《财富》杂志:“加拿大市场的增长速度没有美国市场那么快,也没有美国市场那么大。我觉得从投资角度讲,这让美国市场更有吸引力,所以我们仍然看好Hexo。”

同时,费根说Hexo最近估值下降,现在看来“吸引力猛增”,原因是增长前景可能会给这家公司今后的估值加“更多分”。

5—Canopy (买入)

7月早些时候,创始人及首席执行官布鲁斯·林顿突然离职后,大多数分析师仍然看好Canopy的股价和前景。

该公司的主要卖点之一是联邦法案通过后即可收购美国纯大麻企业Acreage Holdings的协议。晨星的分析师英顿说:“Canopy的投资者实际上有了美国业务,因为他们已经签了这份长期协议。”除了主动联手美国公司,英顿认为与饮料巨头Constellation Brands(持有Canopy 38%股份)的合作是Canopy今后在大麻领域确立位置的关键。

英顿指出:“我们认为这是很好的合作,因为这个市场的许多增长都不会以目前我们看到的模式出现。我觉得添加大麻的饮料和食品以后会成为一个很大的成长型市场,因此拥有Constellation这样的合作伙伴是件大事。”

Cowen & Co.的分析师阿泽尔等人同样看好Canopy,给出了“跑赢大市”评级。他们还认为林顿的离职对两家公司来说都是“利好”。

6—Aurora Cannabis (买入)

尽管近几个月有所下跌,但Aurora Cannabis的股价仍然高于去年同期水平,而且分析师对它的评级都是“买入”。

晨星仍然认为这只股票被低估,尽管它是唯一一家没有战略合作伙伴的大型大麻公司,但仍然存在很多机会。

英顿指出,大麻种植在室内进行,因此人力和用电等主要成本给一些生产企业的业绩带来了压力。而Aurora正在改善这种情况,“他们非常专注于改良生产。那可能会有很多机会,大麻的工业规模种植只有几年历史,因此他们在这方面可能会发展得很好。”

其他分析师还认为国际化布局对Aurora来说是个重大加分项。

Cowen & Co.的分析师阿泽尔写道:“[Aurora Cannabis]的国际布局规模在加拿大大麻公司中首屈一指,而且随着产能扩大,它在从德国和澳大利亚获得额外收入方面处于有利位置。这家公司还能够向这些市场额外调配产品。”

7—CannTrust Holdings (持有)

费根认为这家大麻产品制造商存在“合规问题”,而且和监管部门的最新冲突让它陷入了困境。加拿大卫生部在调查中发现CannTrust Holdings用未获得许可的温室来种植大麻,这家公司因此遇到了麻烦,股价随之下跌了20%以上。

CannTrust的股价低于去年同期水平,分析师对它的态度也不统一。不过,尽管存在诸多问题,分析师仍然一致给出了“持有”评级。

8—Curaleaf (买入)

美国食品与药品管理局(FDA)最近发出警告信,称Curaleaf的大麻二酚产品有益健康的说法“缺乏根据”,这家跨国公司因此备受关注。但尽管此事造成其股价下跌,分析师仍然乐观地给予该公司“买入”评级。

费根说:“我们认为FDA事件基本上属于‘噪音’,因为它对我们预测的收入没有真正重大的影响。说实话,这是一个全新产业,对大麻二酚来说,监管规则还处于首次制定阶段。”

实际上,费根认为Curaleaf将成为这个领域的“长期主要参与者”之一,因为它正在快速整合。晨星的分析师英顿也指出,对投资者来说,Curaleaf“将成为最有吸引力的一只股票”,因为它是美国纯大麻公司,“因此,Curaleaf有非常大的成长空间。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

Ever since Tilray hit the public markets back in July of last year, marking the first cannabis stock to IPO, dozens of fellow pot companies have followed suit. And according to Morningstar’s Kristoffer Inton, the total cannabis market is going to be 9 times bigger by 2030.

“These are just growth companies in a growth industry,” Inton told Fortune. Many of the major cannabis companies are burning cash, but Inton says that’s to be expected. He notes that many of the larger companies have good margins and positive gross profit, and that their “topline has significant runway for growth.”

But what are analysts saying about some of the top cannabis stocks you can buy right now?

1—Tilray (Hold)

The Canadian cannabis company began trading last July, and marked the first public pot stock on the market. But since its IPO, Tilray’s stock has seen some volatile swings.

While the stock has experienced sharp declines over the past year, Tilray has been up recently following news of their acquisition of boozy candy maker Smith & Sinclair to create CBD-infused edibles.

Morningstar’s Inton says its “fairly valued,” and recommends a “hold” rating for the stock. Cowen’s Vivien Azer is slightly more optimistic, maintaining an “outperform” rating following the company’s downstream merger with Privateer, a Peter Thiel-backed private equity holding company.

Tilray is also partnered with Anheuser-Busch InBev to research cannabis-infused drinks, and analysts are bullish on these beverage partnerships across the board.

“I would pay attention to the strategies,” Inton says of partnerships in the space. “The industry is not going to look the same in 5 or 10 years, so it’s important to think about, what are the companies looking at in terms of developing? Which end-markets are they looking to develop into?”

2—Cronos (Hold/Sell)

Analysts are less bullish on Cronos, largely due to the company’s valuation and choice of partnerships.

Morningstar’s Inton says they’re maintaining a “sell” rating—and believes the market is “valuing it fully if not a little more,” citing that the company’s partnership with tobacco player Altria “makes a little less sense” than other strategic partnerships in the cannabis space.

Cronos received a hefty $1.8 billion investment, or 45% stake, from the Philip Morris parent company late last year. But some analysts aren’t as convinced the move was a good one.

“Where you see these operating synergies with Constellation and AB InBev in terms of developing a food or beverage, and then how to brand in that world and the distribution of that, we don’t really see that same synergy with a tobacco company and a cannabis company,” Inton says. He believes that since tobacco consumers want consistency in their product and brand, Cronos’ move doesn’t make as much sense since cannabis is an “experience” akin to alcohol.

Cowen’s Azer holds back with a “market perform” rating, citing that “valuation and a longer path to profitability keep us on the sidelines” for a higher rating.

Cronos’ stock has traded down for the past six months, currently circling around the $14 to $15 range per share.

3—OrganiGram (Buy)

Analysts are bullish on rising star Canadian producer OrganiGram.

OrganiGram stock has a strong “buy” consensus rating, with shares up some 70% so far this year.

As one of only four producers in Canada to have supply agreements with all 10 Canadian provinces, OrganiGram is well-positioned for further growth in Canada and elsewhere. The company also has a partnership with Eviana for CBD to feed into European markets.

4—Hexo (Buy)

Although the company’s stock has plummeted recently, analysts are overall fairly bullish on Hexo’s stock. In particular, the producer’s exposure to the U.S. market is appealing.

“The Canadian market is not seeing as rapid growth as the U.S. market is, and it’s not as large in size,” GMP Securities’ Robert Fagan told Fortune. “I think that makes the U.S. market more attractive from an investment perspective now, and we still like Hexo.”

To boot, Fagan says Hexo’s recently diminished valuation is now “much more attractive” because its growth prospects could give the company’s value “more credit” in the future.

5—Canopy (Buy)

After the abrupt departure of founder and CEO Bruce Linton earlier July, analysts remain largely positive on Canopy’s stock and prospects moving forward.

One of the company’s major selling points is their agreement to acquire U.S.-based pure play Acreage Holdings once federal legalization passes. “For investors of Canopy, you’re getting virtual exposure to the U.S. market because you already have this standing agreement,” Morningstar’s Inton says. But in addition to the preemptive move to team up with a U.S. operator, Inton says Canopy’s partnership with beverage heavy-hitter Constellation Brands (who has a 38% stake in the company) is a key move to set the company up for the future cannabis landscape.

“We think that’s a good partnership because a lot of growth in this market is not going to be what we see today,” Inton said. “I think that cannabis-infused drinks and food is going to be a big growth market going forward, so having a partner like Constellation is big.”

Others like Cowen’s Azer are also big on the stock, rating it “outperform” and noting that Linton’s departure was “positive” for both companies.

6—Aurora Cannabis (Buy)

Despite having traded down a bit for the past several months, Aurora Cannabis’ stock is still up for the year, and analysts give it a consensus “buy” rating.

Morningstar maintains the stock is still undervalued, but has a lot of opportunities despite the fact that it is one of the only big cannabis players without a strategic partner.

Inton says that since pot cultivation is indoors, big costs like labor and electricity are putting pressure on some of the producers’ balance sheets. But Aurora is working to improve that. “They’re very focused on advancing production there. There’s probably a lot of opportunity, it’s only a few years old where there’s industry-scale cultivation of cannabis, so their development of that could be good,” he says.

And other analysts see Aurora’s international exposure as a huge plus for the stock.

“[Aurora Cannabis] has the largest international footprint among the Canadian LPs and is well positioned to capture additional revenues in Germany and Australia as capacity ramps and the company is able to allocate additional shipments to these markets,” writes Cowen’s Azer.

7—CannTrust Holdings (Hold)

The cannabis producer has “an issue with compliance,” says Fagan, and their latest run-in with regulators puts the company in a tough spot. CannTrust Holdings got in hot water after an investigation by Health Canada found the producer was using unlicensed greenhouses to grow pot—pushing shares down over 20%.

Shares of CannTrust are down for the year, and analysts are mixed in sentiment. But despite the producer’s multitude of issues, the stock still holds a “hold” consensus rating.

8—Curaleaf (Buy)

The multi-state operator was pushed in the spotlight recently following an FDA Warning Letter concerning the company’s CBD products and “unsubstantiated claims” of health benefits, according to the FDA. But while the stock dipped at the news, analysts remain bullish on the company as a buy.

“The FDA thing is mainly a noise element in our view because it really doesn’t have a big revenue impact on our forecast, and to be honest, it’s a brand new industry, CBD, where regulations are in the process of being made for the first time,” says Fagan.

In fact, GMP’s Fagan says that Curaleaf is going to be one of the “long term major players” in the space due to its rapid consolidation. And Morningstar’s Inton says Curaleaf is “going to be the most attractive one to be in” for investors due to its U.S. pure play. “Because of that, Curaleaf has a lot of room to grow,” Inton says.

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