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投资理财

这家险企的老总仍然看好股市

Susie Gharib 2019年08月15日

这位高管观察的经济指标大概有15个,其中呈现黄色警示的只有两个。其他的都是绿色正常状态。

约翰·施利夫斯基熟悉股票市场。在成为西北互助人寿保险公司的CEO之前,有20多年时间,公司数十亿美元投资如何进行一直都由他决定。因此,如果他说自己看好股市,那就值得一听。

我在今年6月和施利夫斯基进行交流时,他列出了自己看好股市的原因,包括没有衰退迹象,货币政策宽松,没有需要担心的重大泡沫,公司业绩表现强劲,企业有现金,美国消费者很强大以及工资呈上升态势。

施利夫斯基说:“总之,还没有任何因素让我觉得不该看好股市。我们观察的经济指标大概有15个,其中呈现黄色警示的只有两个。其他的都是绿色正常状态。”

在近期股市下跌后,他还是这么看的吗?没错,确实如此。我在8月给他发了电子邮件,他作答时的乐观程度只是略有下降。

施利夫斯基写道:“盈利数据下降,制造业明显低迷,原因是这种环境下公司不愿投资。不过,消费者的表现依然强劲,除了收益率曲线,其他指标仍然是绿色。一句话,风险增大了,但基本情况仍然有利于经济增长,只是不像刚刚减税后那么有利。”

对通过西北互助人寿将退休、教育和人寿储蓄用于投资的数百万人来说,施利夫斯基对市场的判断很关键。这家总部设在威斯康星州密尔沃基的公司已经成功经营了160多年,并以近300亿美元的营业收入在美国《财富》500强中排名第111位。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

John Schlifske knows his way aroud the stock market. Before he became CEO of Northwestern Mutual, for more than 20 years he was calling the shots on how to invest the firm’s huge multi-billion dollar portfolio. So when he says he’s bullish on the markets, it’s worth listening why.

When I spoke with Schilfske in June, he ticked off the reasons for his optimism. No signs of recession. Easy monetary policy. No major bubbles to worry about. Earnings are strong. Companies have cash. The US consumer is strong. Wages are rising.

“All in all, there’s nothing to make me think not to be bullish,” Schlifske says. “We look at about 15 economic indicators and there’s only a couple that are even yellow. The rest are green.”

Does he still feel that way given the recent stock market selloff? Yes, actually. When I emailed him in August, he responded with a slightly tempered view.

“Earnings numbers are coming in softer and manufacturing weakness is evident as companies are hesitating to invest in this environment,” he wrote. “The consumer continues to be strong, however, and indicators other than the yield curve are still green. In short, risks have increased but the base case is still favorable for economic growth, albeit less than we saw post tax cuts.”

Schlifske’s call on the markets is critical for the millions of people who rely on Northwestern Mutual to invest their savings for retirement, education, and life insurance protection. The Milwaukee, Wisconsin based company has been doing that successfully for more than 160 years. With revenues of nearly $30 billion the company is number 111 on the Fortune 500 list of the largest companies in America.

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