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投资理财

看不清现在是牛市还是熊市?投资专家教你如何操作

Ben Carlson 2019年06月14日

在你能想到的几乎每一个证券或资产市场,无论你在辩论中支持牛市还是熊市,都有足够的弹药支持你的观点。

比特币是2019年表现最好的资产之一,自2018年年底以来价格翻了一倍多。但相较于2018年年初,价格仍然下跌了近50%。然而,相比2016年年底,比特币上涨了近700%。但和2017年12月比特币狂热时期的峰值价格相比,下跌超过60%。

自2000年互联网泡沫达到顶峰以来,标普500的年回报率仅为5.3%。然而,2009年3月以来的年回报率平均超过16%。回到2007年11月,每年的回报率仅为7.3%。然而,再回到1995年,年回报率接近10%,恰恰是长期以来的平均水平。

黄金没什么起色已经有些年头了,自2011年触顶后金价已经下跌30%。但如果相较于2000年年初,黄金价格上涨了360%。然而,自1980年以来,按照通货膨胀调整后的实际价格计算,黄金其实已经亏损。不过自1971年美国退出金本位制以来,黄金价格年平均上涨近8%。

我可以继续举例,但你肯定已经明白了。在你能想到的几乎每一个证券或资产市场,无论你在辩论中支持牛市还是熊市,都有足够的弹药支持你的观点。因为事实很简单:市场是周期性的。这意味着你只需要更改起始日期,让有关数据符合你的立场,就可以赢得有关任何市场的任何辩论。

然而,投资者仍然可以从大涨大落中总结一些经验:

不要试图预测峰值和底部

当你引用市场峰值和低谷时的价格数据时,可能感觉这类游戏还挺有趣,但事实上,没有人厉害到总是能够抄底,也没有人倒霉到总是在最高位买入。正如投资者、慈善家伯纳德·巴鲁克所言:“不要试图抄底买入或者摸顶卖出。这是不可能的——除非是个骗子。”

市场在大多数时候都处于中间位置,既非在一个周期的顶点附近,也不是在底部周围。重点是要记住,让事后诸葛亮来看,市场何时登顶、何时触底似乎总是更容易判断。

短期市场走势更多的是情绪和趋势作用使然,而非市场的基本面,因此在短期内尝试预测市场实际上就像猜测人类情绪的走向。我甚至无法预测自己明天早上的情绪,更别说市场上几百万投资者的集体情绪了。

买卖多元化

人们常说多元化是金融领域唯一的免费午餐,这种理念可不仅适用于多元化资产配置和投资策略。要想免受预测市场高点和低点的诱惑,可以使用平均成本法,定期进行资产购入和卖出,随着时间的推移,实现买卖多元化。

按照时间有条理地进行投资不会像等着要大赚一笔时那么兴奋,但这么做可以摊平风险,确保你不会在最糟的时刻把所有钱都投进市场。

如果使用平均成本法进行市场定投,你在股价下跌时买入的股票份额更多,上涨时买入份额变少。使用这种策略,你无法把钱全部用来抄底,但当市场触底或者位于底部附近时,你能买入一些,这就已经超过大多数人了。

停止白日梦

如果你在1997年亚马逊首次公开募股时买了1万美元该公司的股票,你知道现在你能有多少钱吗?数据显示你将拥有超过960万美元。但现实表明,你更可能只有3万美元左右。

互联网泡沫期间,亚马逊股价上涨近100倍,之后大幅下挫,跌落回现实,在冲刷期结束时从高点回落近95%。之后即使你有幸以与IPO价格差不多的买入,人性也决定了,你会在看到股价下跌80%后卖出,之后再被腰斩甚至更多。

即使在互联网熄火之后的低潮,长线选手仍然能够赚到钱,你的钱将增加到3万美元左右。但即使那时,大多数投资者也会在远没到触底时全部抛出。

在脑子里玩IPO乐透游戏很有意思,但如果总是梦见找到了那张中奖彩票,对投资者也毫无用处。即使你选对了数字,也很可能无法长期持有,等不到收获奖金的那一天。

在讨论市场时,使用某一特定时期内的精确价格数据作为论据确实是论证观点的好方法。但实际上,没有人能够确保每一次都抄底买入,摸高卖出。(财富中文网)

本·卡尔森是Ritholtz Wealth Management公司的机构资产管理总监。他著有《常识带来财富:为何在所有投资计划中简单比复杂更有效》。

译者:Agatha

Bitcoin is one of the best performing assets of 2019, more than doubling in price since the end of 2018. Yet from the start of 2018, prices are still down nearly 50%. However, since year-end 2016, Bitcoin is up almost 700%. But from peak prices seen at the height of the Bitcoin craze in December 2017, the price is down more than 60%.

Since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the S&P 500 has delivered annual returns of just 5.3%. Yet since March 2009, returns are more than 16% per year. Go back to November 2007 and returns are a more pedestrian 7.3% annually. Yet going back to 1995, returns are close to 10% per year, dead on the long-term averages.

Gold has been sucking wind for a number of years now, down 30% since peaking in 2011. But if you were to go back to the start of 2000, gold is up 360%. However, since 1980 gold has lost money on a real, inflation-adjusted basis. Yet since the U.S. went off the gold standard in 1971, the price is up nearly 8% per year.

I could continue but you get the point. There will always be ammunition for both sides of the bull and bear debate in almost every security or market imaginable for the simple fact that markets are cyclical. That means you can win any argument about the markets by simply changing your start or end dates to suite your stance.

There are, however, some lessons investors can glean from these wild swings in price:

Don’t try to predict tops and bottoms

It can be fun to play these games where you cite performance from the absolute peak or trough in price but the truth is no one is good enough to always buy at market bottoms just like no one is bad enough to always buy at market tops. As investor and philanthropist Bernard Baruch once observed, “Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can’t be done—except by liars.”

Most of the time markets are somewhere in the middle, not approaching a generational top or bottom. And it’s important to remember that market tops and bottoms always look much easier to call with the benefit of hindsight.

Short-term market moves are a function of emotion and trends rather than fundamentals so trying forecast the markets in the short-term is really a function of guessing the direction of human emotions. I can’t predict my own mood tomorrow morning, let alone the collective mood of millions of market participants.

Diversify your buys and sells

It’s often said that diversification is the one free lunch in finance but this idea extends beyond your mix of asset classes and investment strategies. One way to avoid the temptation to predict market highs and lows is to diversify across time in the markets by dollar cost averaging your purchases and sales periodically into and out of your investments.

Methodically investing over time isn’t as exciting as waiting for the fat pitch to put your money to work but it spreads your risk by ensuring you’ll never put all your money to work in the market at the worst possible moment.

Dollar cost averaging a set amount into the market also allows you to buy more shares when stocks are falling and fewer shares when stocks are rising. You won’t invest all your money at the market bottom with this strategy but you will invest some at or near the market bottom which is better than most people can say.

Stop dreaming

Do you know how much money you would have if you would have invested $10,000 into Amazon at their IPO in 1997? The data says you would now have more than $9.6 million. But reality says you would probably have more like $30,000.

After rising nearly 100-fold during the dot-com bubble, Amazon shares came back to earth with a thud, falling almost 95% from their highs by the time the washout was over. Even if you had the good fortune of buying the stock around its IPO price, human nature dictates you would have sold after seeing your stock price fall 80%, and then get chopped in half and more from there.

Even at the lows following the dot-com flameout that still would have been good for a two-bagger, growing your money to around $30,000. But even then, most investors would have sold out well before the bottom.

It’s fun to play the IPO lottery game in your head but it does investors no good to constantly dream about finding that winning ticket. Chances are even if you picked the right numbers, you wouldn’t be able to stick with them over the long haul to collect your winnings.

Using precise price points with specific start and end dates are a wonderful way to make a point when discussing markets. But no one actually makes all of their buys and sells by top-ticking or bottom-fishing in the markets.

Ben Carlson is the director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is the author of A Wealth of Common Sense: Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in any Investment Plan.

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