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投资理财

这四只美股注定会大涨

Rey Mashayekhi 2019年05月28日

美国股市仍然充满机会,有四只股票现在就可以入手。

插图:Chris Gash

在《财富》杂志6月刊付梓一周前,众议院议长宣布美国陷入了宪法危机;特朗普的一条推文让道琼斯指数暴跌500点;而在政治上,美国依旧有着严重的分歧。不过令人震惊的是,至少从某种方式上看,美国是象征着稳定的闪耀灯塔,是全球主要市场中前景最为乐观的一个。美国经济继续以惊人的速度增长,企业盈利表现强劲,而在缓慢增长甚至近乎衰退的全球经济中,美国的收益堪称楷模。

确实,根据美国投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)的数据,仅在今年2月和3月,投资者就从国际重点基金中撤出了近70亿美元。与此同时,他们向美国股票基金注入了共计47亿美元。

爱德华·琼斯公司(Edward Jones)的负责人和投资战略师凯特·沃恩表示:“人们对世界其他地区的前景极度悲观,对美国的前景相当乐观。” Glenmede的投资战略官迈克尔·雷诺兹对此表示赞同,他指出“与全球相比,美国的增长韧性很强,美国公司则从中受益”。

只有一个问题:现在投资美国公司的成本超乎寻常。随着标准普尔500指数在今年第一季度交出1998年以来的最佳成绩,投资者在寻找良好投资机会上更需要睁大眼睛。

所以,从美国商业的黄金标准,也就是今年的《财富》美国500强企业中,我们首先筛选了那些大部分收入来自于美国市场的企业。(这样就排除了那些尽管位于美国,但却可能受到国外萧条影响的企业。例如在2019年《财富》美国500强排名第95位的3M就因为在中国的业绩令人失望,未能实现第一季度的业绩预期。)

从这些业务集中于美国的企业中,我们进一步挖掘,试图找到那些在更广阔的市场具有价值的公司。最后诞生的就是四只建议立刻入手的美国股票。

In the week before the June issue of Fortune went to press, the Speaker of the House announced the U.S. was in the midst of a constitutional crisis; a Trump tweet sent the Dow plunging 500 points; and politically, America remained as bitterly divided as ever. So here’s a shock: The U.S., by at least one measure, is a shining beacon of stability, with one of the more upbeat outlooks among major markets around the world. The economy continues to expand at a prodigious rate, corporate earnings are strong, and the U.S. stands as a model of yield within a global economy that has ranged from slow to nearly recessionary.

Indeed, in February and March alone, investors pulled almost $7 billion out of internationally focused funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Meanwhile, they poured a combined $4.7 billion into U.S. equity funds.

“People are extraordinarily pessimistic about the outlook for the rest of the world, and they’re quite optimistic about the outlook for the U.S.,” according to Kate Warne, a principal and investment strategist at Edward Jones. That’s echoed by Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede, who notes that “the growth story in the U.S. has been really resilient compared to globally—and U.S. companies tend to benefit from that.”

There’s just one problem: Buying American is now unusually expensive. With the S&P 500 having posted its best first quarter since 1998, investors need to look carefully to spot good values.

So starting with the gold standard of U.S. business, this year’s Fortune 500, we first screened for companies that derive an outsize percentage of their revenues from the U.S. market. (This to avoid companies that, while based here, might be hampered by overseas headwinds. Case in point:3M, No. 95 on the 2019 Fortune 500, which missed its first-¬quarter earnings guidance on the back of disappointing numbers out of China.)

From that group of U.S.-focused companies, we dived deeper to screen for value relative to the broader market. The result? Four Born in the U.S.A. stocks to buy now.

百思买(《财富》美国500强排名第74位)

在上一财年,百思买有近92%的收入来自于美国市场,并且在其他电子产品和家庭娱乐零售商失败的领域里成功地做出了特色。公司股票的远期市盈率为13(大大低于标普500指数的远期市盈率平均值17),股价比52周内最高点下滑了13%,这意味着投资者有零散买入的价值。

在许多分析师的眼中,所谓的非必需消费品领域是个赢家。他们一直青睐这类指标,后者能够表明在良好的经济环境下,美国消费者的消费力仍然强劲。投资管理公司Conning的股票策略主管唐·唐斯维克表示:“非必需消费品还有一些上涨空间。”他补充道,该行业的许多股票“还没有达到预期水平。你可以从中发现一些价值点”。

通过注重极客小分队(Geek Squad)等服务,百思买将继续给消费者带来价值,而不是单单按照某位分析师的形容,成为“亚马逊(Amazon)的样品间”。差异化的产品线,以及RadioShack等公司破产导致的竞争降低,会帮助百思买远离电子商务竞争的影响。

Best Buy (No. 74)

Best Buy derived nearly 92% of its revenues in its latest fiscal year from the U.S. market, and it has differentiated itself where other electronics and home entertainment retailers have failed. The company’s stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13 (well below the S&P 500 average of around 17 times forward P/E) and is down 13% from its 52-week high—indicating that there’s value for investors looking for retail plays.

The so-called consumer discretionary sector at large is a winner in the eyes of many analysts, who have welcomed metrics indicating that U.S. consumer spending remains strong amid favorable economic conditions. “The consumer discretionaries have been left behind a bit,” according to Don Townswick, director of equity strategies at investment management firm Conning, who adds that many of the stocks in the sector “are not at the levels you’d expect them to be. You really do see some good value.”

By focusing on services like its Geek Squad, Best Buy will continue to add value to consumers beyond just serving as “Amazon’s showroom,” as one analyst put it. A diverse product offering, as well as reduced competition from the likes of bankrupt RadioShack, should help insulate the company from ¬e-commerce competition.

公民金融集团(《财富》美国500强排名第415位)

像公民金融集团(Citizens Financial Group)这样远期市盈率只有9的区域性美国银行,被认为是尤其明智的价值投资目标。尽管按照合并资产计算,这家位于普罗维登斯的金融机构在在2018年年底仅仅是美国排名第22位的商业银行,但它统治了自己的目标区域美国西北,在那里的11个州设有1,100家分行和2,900台ATM机。

类似于公民金融集团这种区域性机构,不仅因为受到国际萧条的影响有限甚至没有而获利,而且它们作为根深蒂固的本地公司,通过回头生意得到了回报,在科技初创公司“新型银行”试图颠覆消费金融业务的当下,这一点价值非凡。

分析师表示,整体经济局势也推动了该领域的发展。Conning的唐斯维克指出:“区域性银行作为产业集群,几乎完全暴露于美国收入的影响之下,在经济增长率保持稳定或提升的环境中,它们确实能够获益。”他补充道,尽管他不认为将来会出现“增长率大幅提升”,但“上行的可能性大于下行”。比起规模更大、受到更多监管的竞争对手,区域性银行也可以从“更高的(消费者)忠诚度”上获益。

Citizens Financial Group (No. 415)

Regional U.S. banks like Citizens Financial Group—which is trading at a forward P/E ratio of only 9—are considered a particularly canny value play. While the Providence-based financial institution was only the 22nd-¬largest commercial bank in the U.S. by consolidated assets at the end of 2018, it dominates its targeted region in the Northeast—with 1,100 bank branches and 2,900 ATMs in 11 states.

Not only do regional institutions like Citizens benefit from limited to no exposure to international headwinds, but as established local players, they’re also rewarded with the kind of repeat business that’s valuable at a time when tech-oriented startup “neo-banks” are looking to disrupt the consumer banking space.

Analysts say the overall economic picture should also boost this sector. “The regional banks, as an industry group, tend to be almost entirely exposed to U.S. revenues, and they do benefit in an environment where rates tend to be stable or increasing,” Conning’s Townswick notes. He adds that while he doesn’t expect a “massive increase in rates” moving forward, the movement is likely to be “more upward than downward”—with regional banking players also benefiting from “more [customer] loyalty” than some of their larger, more scrutinized counterparts.

 

莱纳房屋公司(《财富》美国500强排名第154位)

尽管房地产建设是出了名的不稳定,而且房地产建筑商的股票在2018年表现惨淡,但美联储(Federal Reserve)在利率上较为中立的新立场对莱纳(Lennar)这样的公司而言会是个利好。完全着眼于美国市场的莱纳是今年《财富》美国500强榜单上进步最大的公司之一,提升了76位。公司的远期市盈率为9,股价也低于去年夏天达到的52周内最高值。

摩根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)的常务董事安德鲁·斯利蒙表示:“我认为房地产建筑商现在的吸引力很大。它们去年完全溃不成军。但如果你看看房地产建筑商的历史,当它们的股票摆脱困境之后,涨幅不会是20%或30%,而是会比这还多得多。”

不过斯利蒙补充道,这个行业尤其需要投资者抗拒天性,他们还要有等待赌注获得回报的耐心。房地产建设行业“周期性很强”,投资者需要提前做出反应。

按照斯利蒙的看法,“你不能等到行业的基本面出现转机才行动。你得愿意在转机尚不明朗时买入,也要在局势似乎不错时懂得脱手。”

Lennar (No. 154)

While homebuilding is notoriously volatile—and indeed, homebuilder stocks had a brutal 2018—the Federal Reserve’s newly neutral interest rate stance could prove a boon for the likes of Lennar. Wholly focused on the U.S. market, Lennar is one of this year’s biggest “movers” on the Fortune 500, jumping up the list by 76 spots. The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9 and is also below its 52-week high set last summer.

“I think the homebuilders are very attractive right now,” says Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “They got absolutely crushed last year. And if you look at the history of homebuilders, when these stocks come off the mat, they don’t go up 20% or 30%—they go up a lot more.”

But Slimmon adds this industry in particular requires investors to fight their natural instincts—and have the patience to wait for bets to play out. The homebuilding industry is “very cyclical,” and investors need to get ahead of the curve.

“You cannot wait for the fundamentals for this industry to turn,” according to Slimmon. “You have to be willing to buy in when it’s not clear that things have turned and be willing to take your chips off the table when they’re looking good.”

CVS Health(《财富》美国500强排名第8位)

CVS Health在以700亿美元的巨款收购医疗保险公司安泰(Aetna)之后,于今年早些时候交上了令人失望的第四季度财报。不过这家医药连锁店在2019年第一季度强势反弹,利润暴涨42%。放眼整个竞争激烈的零售行业,它的韧性十分突出。凭借这次并购,CVS进入了医疗保健行业,这是一些分析师推荐的增持领域——尽管一些民主党候选人提出了“全民医疗”(Medicare for All)平台,这在即将到来的大选年注定会引发业内剧变。

财富管理公司Catalyst Private Wealth的创始人和总经理布兰登·康诺顿指出:“你不知道下一款引起轰动的药物是什么,但你知道它会在CVS出售。”

CVS股票的远期市盈率为8,股价比起去年11月达到的52周内最高值有着显著回落,对投资者来说有着真正的上升空间。

没错,没有人知道美国这次(已经持续了很久的)经济扩张可以延续多长时间。不过从目前来看,如果投资者做出了明智选择,或许还能享受一阵子光辉岁月。(财富中文网)

本文最初登载于《财富》杂志2019年6月刊。

译者:严匡正

CVS Health (No. 8)

CVS Health reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings earlier this year in the wake of its massive $70 billion acquisition of health insurer Aetna. But the drugstore chain rebounded nicely in the first quarter of 2019, reporting a 42% jump in profits. The company is among the more resilient players in what has been a challenging retail market at large. With the merger, CVS gains exposure to a health care sector that some analysts are overweight on—despite an upcoming election year in which some Democratic candidates are floating a Medicare for All platform that would surely cause disruption within that industry.

“You don’t know what drug is going to be the next blockbuster, but you know that it’s going to be sold through CVS,” points out Brendan Connaughton, founder and managing director of wealth management firm Catalyst Private Wealth.

With CVS’s stock trading at a forward P/E ratio of 8 and its price down considerably from its 52-week high last reached in November, there could be real upside to be found for investors.

True, no one knows how long this (already prolonged) U.S. economic expansion will last. But for now, it looks as if investors who choose wisely may enjoy a few more Glory Days.

This article originally appeared in the June 2019 issue of Fortune.

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