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黄金投资者会买比特币吗?

骆杰峰 2019年05月12日

加密货币公司Grayscale推荐比特币,并且为此投入数百万美元发起了一场空前的营销活动。

持有黄金好还是持有比特币好?加密货币公司Grayscale推荐比特币,并且为此投入数百万美元发起了一场空前的营销活动,包括在整个美国播放一年的电视广告。

活动名为“放弃黄金”,已从上周三开始。在当天播放了一条时长39秒的广告,内容是一男一女匆忙地在一个金融区中奔跑,而他们周围的人纷纷被大块儿黄金压的步履艰难。

广告语这样问道:“你为什么要投资黄金?你是在投资过去吗?”

据Grayscale介绍,这条广告将通过无线、有线和Hulu等流媒体三条渠道播出一整年,而且该公司还将在社交媒体网站上投放大量广告。

所有这些构成了一次大胆“赌博”—— Grayscale赌的是此番广告宣传带来的比特币新买家足以抵消它的高额营销费用。但实际上会说服多少人放弃黄金投资并且转而选择比特币呢?那可只是一些计算机代码构成的数字货币呀。

如果投资者为了比特币而“放弃”黄金,Grayscale就会受益。该公司首席执行官巴里·西尔伯特认为人们会迈出这一步,这并不意外。在西尔伯特看来,比特币具有出众的储值功能,就像上述广告所言,它是一种更轻便而且更实际的长期投资手段。西尔伯特还相信,和互联网共同成长的一代人不会那么痴迷于贵金属。

他说:“23岁的人要金条干吗?我非常确信他们会把金条卖了。”西尔伯特还表示,他相信今后几年那些继承了黄金的人会去寻找其他投资途径。

目前全世界所有黄金的总价值约为8万亿美元,而现有比特币的价值约为950亿美元。也就是说,比特币在追赶黄金方面还有很长的路要走。当然,黄金在圣经时代就已经有了价格,而比特币的“年龄”几乎还不到10岁。

黄金的“出身”是被称为黄金死忠的那些投资者认为即使股票和债券等传统资产崩盘,黄金也仍能发挥保值作用的一大原因。还不清楚会有多少这样的黄金死忠把自己的信任转移到比特币身上。

不过,西尔伯特相信人们低估了代际观念的变化。他指出,今年初以来比特币的价值上涨了45%,黄金价格则基本持平。当然,比特币在2017年底的泡沫期逼近2万美元后暴跌了80%以上,目前的价格约为5300美元。

西尔伯特还认为,市场对黄金的兴趣在很大程度上要归结于世界黄金协会的大力营销,这个行业组织在2004年协助设立了第一只黄金交易所交易基金(ETF),后者问世之际正值黄金价格猛涨。有许多人认为,如果监管部门批准设立比特币ETF(尽管美国证券交易委员会断然拒绝了此事),比特币也会出现同样的行情。

西尔伯特说:“要质疑一下20年来世界黄金协会一直告诉你的那些东西。我们并不是在说大家应该把微软的股票卖掉,然后去买比特币,但比特币应该成为配置对象之一。”

Grayscale的营销活动将让人们注意到该公司在柜台市场交易的比特币信托产品。但西尔伯特说能让他满意的情况是通常以较低价格直接销售比特币的其他加密货币公司从这次宣传推广中受益。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

Is it better to hoard gold or Bitcoin? The cryptocurrency company Grayscale is making the case for Bitcoin with an unprecedented multi-million dollar marketing campaign that includes a year of national TV commercials.

The campaign, which is called “Drop Gold” and kicked off on Wednesday, features a 39-second commercial that shows a man and woman who race frantically around a financial district while people around them are weighed down by bulky gold.

“Why did you invest in gold?” the ad asks. “Are you investing in the past?”

According to Grayscale, the ad (which you can watch below) will run all year on broadcast and cable networks and on streaming services like Hulu. The company will also be advertising heavily on social media sites.

All of this amounts to a bold bet that the ad campaign will produce enough new Bitcoin buyers to offset Grayscale’s major marketing expenses. But how many people will actually be persuaded to give up investing in gold in favor of Bitcoin—a digital currency that exists only as bits of computer code?

Unsurprisingly, Grayscale CEO Barry Silbert, whose company will profit if investors “drop gold” for Bitcoin, thinks people will make the leap. In his view, Bitcoin is a superior store of value because—as the commercial suggests—it is a lighter and more practical way to hold a long-term investment. Silbert also believes a generation who grew up with the Internet is less enamored with precious metals.

“What’s a 23-year-old going to do with a gold bar? I’m highly confident they’re going to sell it,” he said, adding that he believes those who receive gold as an inheritance in coming years will seek other investments.

Currently, the total value of gold in the world is worth approximately $8 trillion, while the current supply of Bitcoin is worth around $95 billion—suggesting the digital currency has a long way to go to catch the yellow metal. Gold, of course, has also been prized since biblical days while Bitcoin is barely a decade old.

Gold’s pedigree is a big reason a certain class of investors, known as gold bugs, view it as a way to own something that will hold its value even if conventional assets like stocks and bonds collapse. It’s unclear how many gold bugs would put their trust in Bitcoin instead.

Silbert, however, believes people are underestimating the shift in generational attitudes, and notes that Bitcoin has risen 45% in value since the start of the year while the price of gold has been basically flat. Of course the price of Bitcoin dropped over 80% following the bubble of late 2017 when it hit nearly $20,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades at around $5,300.

Silbert also attributes much of the market interest in gold to an aggressive marketing campaign by the World Gold Council, the industry trade group that helped promote the first gold ETF in 2004. The arrival of the ETF coincided with soaring gold prices, and many think the same will happen if regulators approve an ETF for Bitcoin (though the Securities and Exchange Commission has emphatically refused to do so).

“Question what you’ve been told by the World Gold Council for the last 20 years,” said Silbert. “We’re not suggesting you should go sell your Microsoft stock and buy Bitcoin, but it should be an allocation.”

Grayscale’s marketing campaign will nudge people towards the company’s Bitcoin trust product, which is traded on the OTC markets. But Silbert says he is content if other cryptocurrency firms—which sell Bitcoin directly, typically at a lower price—benefit from its marketing campaign.

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