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在最近两次股东大会之间,巴菲特都买了哪些好股

Rey Mashayekhi 2019年05月08日

上周四,巴菲特透露说伯克希尔-哈撒韦已经买进了亚马逊的股票。

沃伦·巴菲特(左)和查理·芒格在伯克希尔-哈撒韦2019年股东大会上,内布拉斯加州奥马哈市。图片来源:Johannes Eisele—AFP/Getty Images

又到了每年的这个时候。上周六,估计有4万名伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资者相聚内布拉斯加州,聆听“奥马哈先知”本人——沃伦·巴菲特总结这家综合性控股集团的靓丽业绩,同时展望未来的情况将会如何。

会前,巴菲特和他的副手查理·芒格已在上周登上了头条。上周四,巴菲特透露说伯克希尔-哈撒韦已经买进了亚马逊的股票。长期以来巴菲特一直很欣赏亚马逊,他因为没能尽早出手而自责的事也已众所周知,而今伯克希尔-哈撒韦终于持有了亚马逊股票。上周五,该消息推动亚马逊股价上涨3%。

与此同时,接受《华尔街日报》采访的芒格为富国银行被赶下台的前首席执行官蒂姆·斯隆辩护,称后者为“非常好的银行负责人”。芒格还说,他“本人会让斯隆留任,但没人问过我”。伯克希尔-哈撒韦当然是富国银行的最大股东,它在这家陷入困境的银行中持股10%。

虽然去年富国银行的情况不好,但对伯克希尔-哈撒韦来说这绝对是个好年份。该公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的股票持仓报告(13F)显示,截至2018年底,这家综合集团在48家公司持有约35亿股股票。

虽然此后的持仓一定会有变化(包括最近对亚马逊的投资),但《财富》杂志的数据分析结果表明,伯克希尔-哈撒韦去年底所持股票已升值6.7%,此前12个月的总回报率为8.5%。总的来说,截至5月2日,2018年底伯克希尔-哈撒韦手中这48只股票的价值已超过2100亿美元;与之相比,该公司2017年底持仓在2018年5月2日的价值在1780亿美元以上。

在伯克希尔-哈撒韦持有的主要股票中,苹果公司继续一骑绝尘。到去年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦在蒂姆·库克领导的这家大型科技企业中持股约2.5亿股(或5%以上),而此前12个月苹果的股价上涨了18.5%,总回报率超过20%。

伯克希尔-哈撒韦持股1.52亿股(近18%)的美国运通同样表现的格外出色——伯克希尔-哈撒韦上次股东大会以来,美国运通的股价上涨了20%,总回报率为22%。可口可乐也是如此——2018年股价上涨15%,总回报率19%。截至2018年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦持有这家软饮料巨无霸4亿股,持股比例超过9%。

富国银行一直是伯克希尔-哈撒韦不那么成功的主要持股对象之一。受一系列丑闻影响,过去12个月富国银行股价下跌了7.5%,回报率为负4.5%。不过,让伯克希尔-哈撒韦“最受伤”的投资莫过于卡夫亨氏——鉴于那些相当公开化的问题,这家食品饮料巨头的股价在过去一年中下跌近41%,回报率接近负38%。今年早些时候巴菲特本人承认伯克希尔-哈撒韦“买卡夫买贵了”。

除了主要投资对象,给伯克希尔-哈撒韦带来最强劲回报的是那些持有量相对较少的股票。以互联网域名注册公司威瑞信为例,截至2018年底伯克希尔-哈撒韦持有近1300万股威瑞信股票,而后者过去12个月的涨幅和总回报率都超过了65%。伯克希尔-哈撒韦对宝洁的投资甚至更少。宝洁过去一年的股价涨幅接近49%,回报率几乎达到54%,而伯克希尔-哈撒韦的持股量只有31.5万股。

过去一年股价涨幅和回报率达到两位数的其他投资包括STORE Capital(总回报率40%)、万事达卡(34%)、United Continental Holdings(30%)、Visa(28%)、Costco Wholesale(26%)和达美航空(14%)。落后幅度较大的个股则包括美国航空(总回报率为负19%)、森科能源(负14%)和高盛(负11%)。

就像巴菲特自己在年度致股东信中所说,管理如此庞大的投资意味着他“会有代价高昂的主动失误,也会错失很多机会。”但整体而言,很难否认奥马哈先知仍然很成功。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

It’s that time of the year again. On Saturday, an estimated 40,000 Berkshire Hathaway investors will gather in Nebraska to hear the “Oracle of Omaha” himself, Warren Buffett, recap his holding conglomerate’s successes and cast an eye to what the future may hold.

Both Buffett and his deputy, Charlie Munger, have already made headlines this week in advance of the meeting. On Thursday, Buffett revealed that Berkshire Hathaway has purchased shares of Amazon—finally investing in a company that Buffett himself has long admired and has famously kicked himself for not betting on earlier. The news prompted Amazon’s stock to climb 3% on Friday.

Munger, meanwhile, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal in which he defended ousted Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan, calling him “a very good bank lender” and saying he would “would have kept Sloan, myself, but nobody asked me.” Berkshire Hathaway, of course, is Wells Fargo’s largest shareholder, owning a nearly 10% stake in the beleaguered bank.

While the past year wasn’t a good one for Wells Fargo, it was definitely good for Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett’s conglomerate held roughly 3.5 billion shares in 48 different companies at the end of 2018, according to the most recently available data found in Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

While the firm’s various positions have certainly changed since then (including its recent Amazon investment), the stocks that were in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio at the end of last year have appreciated 6.7% and delivered total returns of 8.5% over the past 12 months, according to a data analysis by Fortune. In total, the company’s year-end position across those 48 stocks is now valued at more than $210 billion as of May 2; by contrast, its various positions at the end of 2017 were value at more than $178 billion at this point last year.

Of Berkshire Hathaway’s largest holdings, none other than Apple continues to be a standout. At the end of last year, Buffett’s firm owned around 250 million shares (or a more than 5% stake) in the Tim Cook-led tech giant, whose stock has climbed 18.5% in the last 12 months and delivered a total return of more than 20%.

American Express, in which it held 152 million shares (a nearly 18% stake), has also performed exceptionally well—with its stock up 20% and a total return of 22% since Berkshire Hathaway’s last annual meeting. The same goes for Coca-Cola, which has seen its shares rise 15% in the last year and a total return of 19%; Buffett’s firm owned 400 million shares, or more than 9%, in the soft drink behemoth at the end of 2018.

Less successful among Berkshire Hathaway’s big bets has been Wells Fargo, which in the midst of an array of scandals has seen shares fall 7.5% in the last 12 months with a negative return of -4.5%. Yet no investment has hurt more than its position in Kraft Heinz; unsurprisingly, given the well-publicized issues at the food-and-beverage giant, its stock is down nearly 41% over the last year and it has delivered a negative return of nearly 38% in that time. Buffett himself admitted earlier this year that Berkshire Hathaway “overpaid for Kraft.”

Moving away from the heavy-hitters, it is some of the firm’s relatively smaller positions that have delivered the most robust returns. Take its investment in internet domain name registry Verisign, in which Berkshire Hathaway held nearly 13 million shares at the end of 2018 and which has seen price appreciation and total returns of more than 65% in the last 12 months. An even smaller position is Procter & Gamble, which has climbed nearly 49% in that time and delivered a return of almost 54%; Buffett’s firm held only 315,000 shares in the consumer goods company at year-end.

Other investments that have resulted in double-digit price appreciation and returns over the past year include STORE Capital (total return of 40%), Mastercard (34%), United Continental Holdings (30%), Visa (28%), Costco Wholesale (26%) and Delta Air Lines (14%). Meanwhile, the likes of American Airlines Group (negative total return of -19%), Suncor Energy (-14%) and Goldman Sachs (-11%) have been among the more notable underperformers.

As Buffett himself noted in his annual letter to shareholders, managing such an expansive portfolio means he “will make expensive mistakes of commission and will also miss many opportunities.” But on balance, it’s hard to dispute that the Oracle of Omaha has still got it.

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