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有分析师称特斯拉上季度遭遇“最大惨败”;其他分析师仍持怀疑态度

彭博社 2019年05月05日

分析师指出,特斯拉给的业绩指引过高,而管理层在削减成本、保留资金和持续扭亏为盈方面做得不够。

图片来源:Getty

证券公司Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯说,特斯拉今年第一季度的业绩是他研究科技股20年来见到的“最大惨败之一”。

艾夫斯指出,特斯拉给的业绩指引过高,而管理层在削减成本、保留资金和持续扭亏为盈方面做得不够。他说:“从《阴阳魔界》里出来的马氏公司的行为就好像需求和利润会神奇地回到特斯拉的故事中一样。”

艾夫斯将特斯拉的评级从“买入”下调至与“持有”相当的水平,并将目标价从365美元降至275美元。艾夫斯对科技公司股价暴跌并不陌生,以苹果公司为例,1月份的盈利预警造成其市值在一天内蒸发了750亿美元,并促使艾夫斯将苹果的目标价下调了25%以上。

两周前,在纽约上市的特斯拉披露了远超预期的季度亏损,同时重申产量展望并暗示有可能融资。上周四,特斯拉股价下挫4%。

艾夫斯在给客户的报告中写道:“鉴于特斯拉现在的盈利轨迹,这家公司又一次被阴云笼罩,而且它现在的首席财务官缺乏经验。目前的危险信号是特斯拉有可能在短期内不得不融资30多亿美元,以满足资本支出和债务需求。我们仍认为机器人出租车、保险产品和其他尝试分散了对尚未解决的需求问题的注意力,这是现阶段我们最担心的。”

其他华尔街分析师也不那么乐观,RBC分析师约瑟夫·斯巴克认为特斯拉的业绩“比预期的难看”。目前有15位分析师给予特斯拉“卖出”评级,给出“买入”评级的有12位,“持有”9位。

摩根大通,瑞安·布林克曼

“第二季度交货量指引看来可能过高,而且按2019全年36-40万辆的展望计算,下半年要比上半年环比增长35-45%左右,这进一步彰显了实现相应目标的执行风险,需要获得盈利和正现金流。”

评级“减持”,目标价200美元。

RBC Capital Markets,约瑟夫·斯巴克

“第一季度业绩比预期的难看。特斯拉维持全年交货量指引不变,但实际情况可能证明它需要的显著转变偏乐观。”

“现金余额降至22亿美元,我们认为可能需要融资。”

评级“跑输大盘”,目标价200美元。

乐通公司,杰弗里·奥斯本

“过去18-24个月,特斯拉看到下定金客户对Model 3的需求爆发。此后随着正常化需求的到来,特斯拉看来要进入一个不确定时期。”

“我们认为降价基本上是在试探需求。”

“即使特斯拉重申业绩指引,我们仍认为它在某些方面是我们最近看到的前景最不明朗的公司。”

评级“跑输大盘”,目标价160美元。

Evercore ISI公司,阿恩特·埃林霍斯特

“特斯拉一个季度就亏损7亿美元。它在降价的同时表示所有产品的需求都格外的好,这显然让人对需求产生疑问并感到担心。”

“我们要指出的一个亮点是语气的变化,它说‘……目前融资的想法值得考虑’。”

评级“跑输大盘”,目标价240美元。

Jefferies公司,菲利普·霍乔斯

“除了主要数字、没达到预期的东西和持续的压力,我们发现汽车毛利润率韧性、现金盈利和总流动性都好于预期,而且足以支持股价大幅上调。”

“我们对特斯拉的看法有时很难让人接受,但我们认为特斯拉的电动汽车/连接技术和实验有价值(无论管理层风格如何),而且我们相信它有持续盈利的途径。”

评级“买入”,目标价400美元。

Piper Jaffray公司,亚历山大·波特

“虽然物流挑战以及较低的卖价显然影响了第一季度利润,但我们认为这是暂时现象。”

“公司指引预示着第二季度的交货量和利润率都将反弹,我们认为这是合理预期。”

“第一季度特斯拉的处境特别不利,负面因素包括季节性、美国以外的交货量大幅上升(不利于物流成本和营运资金)以及美国税收优惠政策的终止。”

评级“超配”,目标价396美元。

Baird公司,本·卡洛

“我们确实认为特斯拉应该融资;虽然不是必不可少,但我们认为这将成为一个有利催化剂并消除这只股票面临的不确定因素。”

“不看好特斯拉的人可能继续关注需求,但我们和管理层一样持建设性观点。”

评级“跑赢大盘”,目标价400美元。

Consumer Edge公司,德里克·格林

“我们认为下半年业绩更能体现需求趋势,但特斯拉预计第二季度继续亏损,我们认为这是个不利的意外情况。”

“再加上埃隆表示进一步融资‘值得考虑’,现在我们觉得特斯拉成长为自给自足、高效使用资金的制造商的速度或许不像我们几个月前认为的那么快。”

评级“持有”,目标价310-350美元。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

Tesla Inc.’s latest first quarter was “one of (the) top debacles” ever seen in 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said on Thursday.

The analyst said the company’s guidance was aggressive and the management was not doing enough to cut costs, preserve capital and provide a sustained path to profitability. “Musk & Co. in an episode out of the ‘The Twilight Zone’ act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives said.

He downgraded the stock to the equivalent of a hold from buy, and slashed his price target to $275 from $365. Ives is no stranger to tech debacles either, such as Apple Inc.’s profit warning in January that shaved $75 billion off the iPhone maker’s market cap in a single day and prompted Ives to cut his price target on Apple by more than a quarter.

Tesla shares dropped as much as 4 percent in New York on Thursday after the company reported a much wider-than-expected quarterly loss, reiterated its production outlook for the year and hinted at the possibility of a capital raise post-market on Wednesday.

“At this point the writing is on the wall that Tesla will likely have to raise over $3 billion of capital in the near term to sustain its capex and debt needs, given its current profitability path, which is another black cloud over the name with an inexperienced CFO now at the helm,” Ives wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to feel robotaxis, insurance products, and other endeavors are distractions from the growing demand woes that are not being addressed which is a critical worry of ours at this juncture.”

The rest of Wall Street wasn’t exactly jubilant either, with RBC’s Joseph Spak saying the results were “uglier than expected.” The company now has 15 analysts rating it a sell, compared to 12 with buy, and 9 with hold ratings.

JPMorgan, Ryan Brinkman

“While second-quarter deliveries guidance appears potentially aggressive, the full-year outlook for 360,000 to 400,000 implies a further roughly 35 percent to 45 percent sequential increase from first half of 2019 to second half of 2019, further highlighting the execution risk entailed in meeting the figures that are implied, needed to generate positive earnings and cash flow.”

Rates underweight, price target $200.

RBC Capital Markets, Joseph Spak

“First-quarter results uglier than expected. Full-year delivery guidance maintained but big inflection needed which may prove optimistic.”

“Cash balance down to $2.2 billion and we believe the probability of a capital raise increased.”

Rates underperform, price target $200.

Cowen, Jeffrey Osborne

“Tesla appears to be entering into an era of uncertainty as a period of normalized demand approaches after enjoying the last 18 to 24 months of pent up demand for the Model 3 from the deposit list.”

“We see lower prices as largely indicative of a demand fishing expedition.”

“Even as Tesla reiterated guidance, we believe the company has some of the lowest forward-looking visibility in recent memory.”

Rates underperform, price target $160.

Evercore ISI, Arndt Ellinghorst

“Tesla has just lost $700 million in a single quarter. Cutting prices whilst claiming exceptional demand for all products raises obvious questions and red flags concerning underlying demand.”

“The silver lining we’d point to was a change in tune, ‘…there’s merit to the idea of raising capital at this point.”’

Rates underperform, price target $240.

Jefferies, Philippe Houchois

“Beyond the headline, miss and ongoing stress we saw enough positive surprises from auto gross margin resilience, cash earnings, and gross liquidity to argue the shares have sufficiently re-priced.”

“Our Tesla call is hard to live with at times but we see value in Tesla’s EV/connectivity technology and experimentation (no matter the management style) and remain confident there is a path to sustained profitability.”

Rates buy price target $400.

Piper Jaffray, Alexander Potter

“Although logistical challenges – along with lower transaction prices – had an obvious impact on first-quarter profitability, we think this was temporary.”

“Guidance implies a second-half recovery for both deliveries and margins, and this seems reasonable to us.”

“First-quarter suffered from a particularly nasty combination of headwinds, including seasonality, a big buildup of non-U.S. deliveries (negative for logistics costs and working capital), as well as the expiration of tax incentives in the United States.”

Rates overweight, price target $396.

Baird, Ben Kallo

“We do think Tesla should raise capital; while not essential, we believe it would be a positive catalyst and remove an overhang on the stock.”

“Demand will likely remain a focus for bears, though we share management’s constructive view.”

Rates outperform price target $400.

Consumer Edge, Derek Glynn

“We think second-half results will be more indicative of underlying demand trends, but we view Tesla’s expectation for another loss in (the) second quarter as a negative surprise.”

“Coupled with Elon’s commentary about there being ‘merit’ to raising additional capital, we now think Tesla is perhaps not maturing as quickly into the self-sufficient and capital-efficient manufacturer we thought was possible just a few months ago.”

Rates equal weight, price target $310 from $350.

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