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基金经理展望2019年市场

彭博社 2019年01月06日

在出现10年来的最差年度表现后,美国股市已经开始让人感到害怕了。

在出现10年来的最差年度表现后,美国股市已经开始让人感到害怕了。信用也有了风险。市场再次开始剧烈震荡。对许多人来说,现金和短期债券可能是最佳去处。

2019年伊始,全球规模最大的几家基金公司的高管、证券投资经理以及策略师谨慎表示各类资产的回报率可能都不高。他们还敦促投资者在追寻价值的过程中变得更为挑剔。我们将他们的观点总结如下。

朱利恩·蒂默:富达投资全球宏观部门主管

2019年美国公司利润增速将下滑到5%-7%,美联储可能再加息一到两次,年初的股票市盈率将处于合理水平。这种环境下债券看起来挺好。股市表现应好于2018年。最好的机会应来自新兴股市,它们一直落后于美股。2018年12月13日蒂默接受采访时表示:“如果把所有因素都考虑进去,对股市来说还算不坏,也许达不到两位数,但会更好。”

罗伯·洛夫利丝:Capital Group副董事长兼股票投资经理

注意苹果公司等设备制造商,它们此前很棒,然而产品缺乏多样性将让它们的表现不复从前。与之相反,三星电子不光有设备和手机,它还制造其他“必需品”,如内存芯片。要选择股票,而不是跟随指数。比如说,在癌症治疗和个性化医疗领域,全世界都有基于人体化学取得突破性进展的生物科技和医药公司。我们不会重点关注某几家公司,而是投资同一行业中的多家公司,原因是其中一家会有令人惊讶的突破,而另一家的药物第三阶段临床试验可能以失败告终。

克里斯汀娜·霍珀:Invesco Ltd.首席全球市场策略师

买入新兴市场股票、科技股、全球性分红型个股以及房地产、私募股权和大宗商品等另类资产,特别是黄金。卖出或减持美股,特别是非必需消费品股。霍珀在2018年12月27日发出的电子邮件中说:“我设定的基本情景是全球增长放慢但仍步伐坚实,美国经济也将减速。同时,我认为全球股市回报率会处于一般水平,但会高于零。不过,随着正面和负面风险同时上升,‘尾部’正在变大。比如说,中美迅速停止贸易战可能提升全球增速并增厚股市回报,特别是在美联储的鸽派倾向比现在更加明显的情况下。反之,中美贸易战升级可能压低全球经济增幅,并有可能拉低股市回报,尤其是如果美联储的鸽派倾向不那么明显的话。”

伊凡申:太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)集团首席投资官

要警惕波动性的上升,信贷利差的扩大以及收益率曲线的扁平化,这预示着12至24个月内经济将滑坡。现在应囤积现金,等待机会,比如利差增大以及公司债超跌。英国金融股可能有机会,原因是估值因人们担心英国无序脱欧而下跌,Pimco则认为出现这种情况的可能性很小。伊凡申于2018年12月13日接受彭博电台采访时说:“我们开始在信贷领域看到一些机会,但总的来说我们仍对信贷感到担心。”

杰弗里·冈德拉奇:DoubleLine Capital首席投资官兼首席执行官

避开美国股市和公司债,也要避开长期美国国债,因为利率可能再次上升,而且美国赤字正在增大。最佳“下注”对象是质量高、久期短的低波动债券基金。冈德拉奇于2018年12月17日接受CNBC采访时表示:“这听起来确实平淡无奇,高质量短期债券组合可能是进入2019年以后的最佳选择。”

里查德·特尼尔:贝莱德全球首席投资策略师

股市中我们看重质量:现金流、可持续增长以及干净的资产负债表。美国是我们看好的地区性市场,我们同时认为新兴市场的风险回报率有了改善。在固定收益领域,我们把美国政府债券新增为厌恶风险环境下防范晚周期事件的“压舱石”。我们青睐中短期债券。就整体证券投资而言,要避开上升空间有限,下行风险却很大的领域,比如欧洲股市。2018年12月10日,特尼尔在写给客户的报告中指出:“我们认为2019年全球经济和公司利润增速将放缓,美国经济将进入晚周期阶段。”

比尔·斯托博格:T. Rowe Price Group Inc.首席执行官

美国股市一直表现良好。今后10年合理的年度回报率应为5%-7%。这低于过去100年的平均水平,但并不算糟糕。新兴市场股票年初的估值要低得多,股息收益率则较高,今后10年的回报率有望达到8%-10%。斯托博格在2018年12月5日接受采访时预测,美元贬值将给美国投资者带来更多收益。

约瑟夫·戴维斯:先锋集团首席全球经济学家

预计经济增长将放慢,但美国或全球经济都不会衰退。美国经济增速将下滑到2%左右。通胀无实质性上升,因为工资的上涨不大可能推高核心通胀率。今后10年美国股市的前景是增长3%-5%,这将和过去30年10.6%的年化回报率形成鲜明对比。戴维斯于2018年12月6日发表报告称,从美国投资者的角度讲,非美国股市的预期回报率介于6%-8%之间。

奥马尔·阿奎拉:嘉信理财投资管理股票和多资产策略业务首席投资官

避开或抛售小盘股、高收益债券以及资产负债率较高而且/或者运用杠杆的证券。向医疗保健、非必需消费品和地区性银行等板块中利润增长和分红有可持续性的证券投资。新兴市场有上升空间,因为它们的相对估值有吸引力,而且下半年美元可能贬值。阿奎拉在2018年12月21日的电子邮件中表示:“全球经济增速放缓,贸易、特别是对华贸易相关问题更受关注,货币政策收紧、流动性下降以及对历史平均波动率的均值回归都可能为2019年的股市确立基调。”

丹·福斯:卢米斯赛勒斯基金公司副董事长

这位债券投资经理正在“非常仔细地观察欧盟内部某些国家的轻微脱离迹象,特别是法国和德国。你得关注这一点。短期内你必须这样,因为欧洲央行对此感到担心。长期而言,你也必须关注欧盟的情况,看它会不会衰落到毫无作用的地步。英国会不会二次公投,如果会,‘留欧’票数会不会占到55%?我觉得第一季度这个问题就会有答案。”福斯在2018年12月20日的采访中说:“更重要的是贸易谈判的进展。我们正在和中国比拼影响力。中国是新兴势力,我们则是老牌强国。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

U.S. stocks are looking scary after their worst year in a decade. Credit is risky too. Volatility is back. For many, cash and short-term debt may be the best place to go.

As fund company executives, portfolio managers and strategists at some of the world’s biggest money managers turn to 2019, they’re cautioning that returns could be muted across asset classes. They’re also urging investors to be increasingly selective in the quest for value. Here’s a sampling of views.

Jurrien Timmer:Fidelity Investments, director of global macro

U.S. earnings growth will slow to 5 percent to 7 percent in 2019, the Fed may raise rates once or twice more, and the price-earnings ratio of the stock market will start the year at a reasonable point. Bonds look all right in this environment. Stocks should do better than they did in 2018. The best opportunity should be in emerging market stocks, which have lagged far behind their U.S. counterparts. “If you add it all up, it’s not a bad story for stocks — maybe not double-digits, but better,” Timmer said in a Dec. 13 interview.

Rob Lovelace:Capital Group, vice chairman and equity portfolio manager

Watch out for device companies, such as Apple Inc., that are great until they stop being great because they lack product diversity. By contrast, Samsung Electronics Co. isn’t just devices and handsets but also creates other necessities, such as memory chips. Be a stock picker rather than buying the index. For example, there is groundbreaking work around the world in biotech and pharma companies in the area of cancer therapies and personalized treatments based on body chemistry. Rather than focus on specific companies, we invest in multiple companies in the sector, as one will have an amazing breakthrough and another will have a stage-three drug that fails.

Kristina Hooper:Invesco Ltd., chief global market strategist

Buy emerging-market equities, tech stocks, global dividend-paying stocks and alternative assets, such as real estate, private equity and commodities — especially gold. Sell or decrease U.S. equities, consumer discretionary stocks in particular. “My base case is decelerating but solid growth globally, with the U.S. decelerating as well. I also expect tepid but positive global stock market returns. However, the ‘tails’ are getting fatter as risks, both positive and negative, increase. For example, a quick resolution of the trade war with China could push global growth higher and also push stock market returns higher — especially if the Fed become significantly more dovish. Conversely, an escalation of the trade war with China could put downward pressure on global economic growth and likely push stock markets lower as well — particularly if the Fed is less dovish,” she said in a Dec. 27 email.

Dan Ivascyn:Pacific Investment Management Co., group chief investment officer

Beware of rising volatility, widening credit spreads and a flattening yield curve that are indicating an economic downturn within 12 to 24 months. Increase cash positions now to await opportunities, such as wider spreads and overshooting to the downside in corporate debt. Potential opportunities are found in U.K. financials, after valuations sank amid fears about a chaotic Brexit, which Pimco believes is a low-probability event. “We are beginning to see a few select opportunities around credit, but we remain concerned about credit in general,” Ivascyn said in a Dec. 13 Bloomberg Radio interview.

Jeffrey Gundlach:DoubleLine Capital, CIO and CEO

Avoid U.S. stocks and corporate debt, and steer clear of long-term Treasuries as rates are likely to resume rising amid swelling U.S. deficits. Best bets are high-quality, low-duration, low-volatility bond funds. “This is a capital preservation environment,” Gundlach said in a Dec. 17 interview on CNBC. “Unsexy as this sounds, a short-term, high-quality bond portfolio is probably the best way to go as you head into 2019.”

Richard Turnill:BlackRock Inc., global chief investment strategist

In equities, we like quality: cash flow, sustainable growth and clean balance sheets. The U.S. is a favored region, and we see emerging market equities offering improved compensation for risk. In fixed income, we add U.S. government debt as ballast against late-cycle risk-off events. We prefer short- to medium-term maturities. In a total portfolio context, steer away from areas with limited upside but hefty downside risk, such as European stocks. “We see a slowdown in global growth and corporate earnings in 2019 with the U.S. economy entering a late-cycle phase,” he said a Dec. 10 note to clients.

Bill Stromberg:T. Rowe Price Group Inc., CEO

U.S. stocks have had a good run. For the next 10 years, 5 percent to 7 percent annual returns would be reasonable. That is less than the 100-year average, but not terrible. Emerging market stocks are starting out a lot cheaper and have a higher dividend yield. You could get 8 percent to 10 percent returns over the next 10 years. If the U.S. dollar weakens you could get more as a U.S. investor, he said in a Dec. 5 interview.

Joseph Davis:Vanguard Group, chief global economist

Expect an economic slowdown but not a recession in the U.S or globally. U.S. growth will decelerate to about 2 percent. No material acceleration in inflation because we are unlikely to see higher wages pass through into higher core inflation. The outlook for U.S. equities over the next decade is in the 3 percent to 5 percent range, in stark contrast with the 10.6 percent annualized return generated over the last 30 years. From a U.S. investor’s perspective, the expected return outlook for non-U.S. equity markets is in the 6 percent to 8 percent range, he said in a Dec. 6 report.

Omar Aguilar:Charles Schwab Investment Management, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies

Avoid or sell small-cap equities, high-yield bonds and securities with high debt relative to assets, and/or leveraged balanced sheets. Invest in securities that have sustainability in earnings growth and dividends, in sectors such as health care, consumer discretionary and regional banks. Emerging markets have upside given their attractive relative valuations and the prospect of a weaker dollar in the second half of the year. “Decelerating global economic growth, increased attention to trade-related development — particularly with China — tighter monetary policies, reduced liquidity, and a mean reversion toward historically average volatility levels are likely to set the tone for equity markets in 2019,” he said in a Dec. 21 email.

Dan Fuss:Loomis Sayles & Co., vice chairman

The bond manager is watching “very carefully the slight pulling apart within the European Union with individual countries — France in particular, and Germany. You have to keep an eye on that. Short-term, you have to because it concerns the European Central Bank. Long-term, you have to watch what is happening to the European Union and if it could weaken to the point of ineffectual. Is there a second referendum in Britain and if so, does ‘Remain’ get 55 percent of the vote? That I think is a first-quarter event.” “More serious is what happens in the trade negotiations. We’re in a push-for-influence war with China. China’s the emerging power and we’re the established power,” he said in a Dec. 20 interview.

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