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投资理财

不管明年股市是牛是熊,这30只股票都是最佳投资标的

Jen Wieczner, Scott DeCarlo 2018年12月23日

无论整体方向如何,投资者都需要为本轮经济周期进入新阶段做好准备,这30只股票值得关注。

美股牛市已经延续近十年了。如果按人的年龄计算,“他”现在已经上四年级,开始认识各州的首府,甚至可能在学乘除法了。但按照股市年龄,“他”已经是一位百岁老人。这是历史上持续时间最常的牛市,尽管可能不是涨幅最大的——从2009年到今年9月触及近期高点,标普500指数上升了333%,仍低于互联网热潮中417%的涨幅。但随着这轮牛市日益逼近明年3月的10岁“生日”,投资者现在似乎比以往任何时候都更加担心其寿命。摩根士丹利投资管理公司的董事总经理兼高级证券投资经理安德烈·斯利蒙最常听到客户的顾虑就是:“已经九年了,它一定就要结束了。”

整个2018年,股市回调10%的情况不是出现一次,而是多次,令这种感觉变得越发强烈。就像投资咨询公司Nuveen的全球股票业务主管萨莉娜·马利克说的那样,这和年初的情况正好相反,当时的税改和一系列政府支出让人“兴奋不已”。应该说那股兴奋劲已经淡去。美国加征的关税部分抵消了公司减税的作用。美联储已经开始不断抬升利率,原因是那一阵子兴奋让美国经济加速增长,并且激活了长期蛰伏的通胀。大型科技公司,也就是所谓的FAANG,一直是近几年股市上扬的主要动力,现在它们却释放出了或许再也无法保持那种高增速的信号。如果还没有注意到波动率这位“老朋友”,那就来数一下亚马逊和Netflix等标普500指数权重股今年有多少天的涨幅或跌幅达到或超过5%吧(一共有25天,真是难以置信)。

牛市能不能坚持到“上中学”仍无定论(熊市,也就是从最高点下跌20%的情况出现之前,牛市都没有正式结束)。但无论整体方向如何,投资者都需要为本轮经济周期进入新阶段做好准备。好消息是全球经济仍然释放出强烈的健康信号。马利克指出:“说到底,我觉得还没有足够的指标显示明年经济将陷入衰退。所以我相信这更有可能是牛市的暂停。”

好的一面是,近期的股价下跌让许多蓝筹股较过去几年都便宜了。今年第二季度美国GDP增速超过4%,创2014年以来新高,3.7%的失业率则处于49年来的最低点。Columbia Threadneedle Investments的股票业务全球副主管梅尔达·梅尔根认为,本轮牛市可能比人们预计的要长,而这仅仅是因为2008年的金融危机非常严重——在美国历史上仅次于大萧条。她说:“那不是常规商业周期,而更像是把系统清零,然后重建。”

不过,在这个扩张期,能像此前几年那样保持增长的公司变少了。安全性方面的情况也和以往不同。虽然这几年投资者争相寻求高派息板块和跨国公司的保护,但许多这样的股票现在看起来很贵,而且不同程度地受到关税的影响。关键在于寻找不受经济或地缘政治冲击影响,能继续提高利润而且规模大到在任何情况下都能存活的公司。梅尔根指出:“我们要投资的是能掌控自身命运的公司,从这个角度来说我们将采取防御策略。我们不会[只是]因为价格便宜而出手。”

Nine-and-three-quarter years old. If the bull market were a child, it would be in the fourth grade, learning the state capitals and perhaps long division. But as stock runs go, this one’s a centenarian. It’s the longest bull market on record, if not quite the best—the S&P 500’s 333% rise from 2009 to its most recent peak in September is still shy of the dotcom boom’s 417% gain. But now more than ever, as they tick off the days toward this bull’s 10th birthday in March, investors seem anxious about that longevity. That’s the concern that Andrew Slimmon, managing director and senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, hears most often from clients: “It’s been nine years. We’ve gotta be nearing the end of this thing.”

That feeling has become more acute throughout 2018, in which there have been not one but two 10% stock market corrections. Contrast that with the beginning of the year, when “you had this sugar high” from tax reform and a government spending spree, as Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen, puts it. It’s safe to say that high has worn off. U.S.-imposed tariffs have counteracted some of those corporate tax savings. The Federal Reserve has consistently marched interest rates higher, because that sugar high has accelerated economic growth and revived long-¬dormant inflation. Big tech—the so-called FAANG stocks that have been the engine driving much of the market’s rise the last few years—have signaled that they might not be able to grow as fast anymore. If you’d been missing your old friend volatility, just count the number of days this year when the stocks of S&P 500 heavyweights Amazon and Netflix closed either up or down at least 5% from where they opened. (There were a mind-boggling 25 collectively.)

It remains an open question whether the bull market will make it to middle school age. (A bull market doesn’t officially end until there’s a bear market—a drop of 20% from the peak.) But regardless of the overall direction, investors need to equip themselves appropriately for a new stage of this economic cycle. And the good news is that the global economy still shows strong signs of health. “At the end of the day, I don’t see enough indicators that the economy is entering a recession next year,” Slimmon says. “It leads me to believe that this is more of a pause within a bull market.”

On the plus side, recent selloffs have left many blue-chip stocks looking cheaper than they have in years. GDP growth topped 4% in the second quarter, the fastest expansion since 2014, and unemployment, at 3.7%, is at a 49-year low. It’s possible, says Melda Mergen, deputy global head of equities for Columbia Threadneedle Investments, that this bull will outlive expectations simply because the 2008 financial crisis was so severe, second only to the Great Depression in U.S. history. “It’s not a regular business cycle—it’s more like clearing the system and rebuilding,” she says.

That said, at this phase of that expansion, fewer companies can sustain the kind of growth they enjoyed a few years ago. Safety will also look different than it has in the past. While in recent years investors flocked to high dividend-paying industrial and multinational corporations for protection, many such stocks now look expensive, and are disproportionately exposed to tariffs. The key is looking for companies that can grow their profits in spite of economic or geopolitical shocks, and that have the scale to survive anything. “We will be defensive in the sense of investing in companies that can control their own destiny,” says Mergen. “We’re not going to buy things [just] because they are cheap.”

***

以下是2019年可买入的五大金融股

不断上升的利率和市场波动幅度增大可能有助于这些公司繁荣发展。

随着投资者开始感觉到牛市逐步远去,他们要为随后必将到来的熊市做好准备。经理人汤姆·汉考克的GMO Quality Fund管理着68亿美元资产。他说:“我们寻找的是我们确信,而不是我们预计能在金融危机中活下来的公司。这是一种从安全性出发的长期考量。”具有讽刺意味的是,这就意味着买进那些在2008年金融危机中受到最沉重打击的金融股。汉考克认为下一次它们会有更好的表现,原因包括较为合理的估值和它们采取的风险管理措施。他特别青睐不那么依靠自营业务赚钱的银行,因为如果市场下跌,它们受到的冲击就不会那么大。美国合众银行就是一例,这家“保守银行”一直都保持着很高的现金准备金和承销标准,目前市盈率也不到14倍。

The 5 Best Financial Stocks to Buy for 2019

Rising interest rates and greater market volatility could help these companies thrive.

As investors start to sense the bull market winding down, they’re also preparing to weather the bear market that’s sure to follow. “We’re looking for companies that we’re sure are going to be survivors of a financial crisis, not that we’re forecasting one,” says Tom Hancock, manager of the $6.8 billion GMO Quality Fund. “It’s a long-term safety kind of view.” Ironically, that’s meant buying financial stocks, which were among the hardest hit in the 2008 crash. Hancock thinks they’ll fare better next time around because of their relatively reasonable valuations and the risk management measures they’ve implemented. He particularly likes banks that rely less on profits from their own trading, so they won’t be as hard hit if markets tank—such as U.S. Bancorp, a “conservative bank” that keeps its cash reserves and underwriting standards high. It also trades at less than 14 times earnings.

另一方面,规模12亿美元的T. Rowe Price Global Stock Fund的经理人戴夫·埃斯沃特则打算利用市场不断上升的波动性——震荡幅度增大意味着买入和卖出增多,对收取交易手续费的公司来说也就意味着更高的收入。埃斯沃特看好芝加哥商品交易所,这家大型期权期货交易所应受益于波动性上升带来的成交量增长。他还看好芝加哥期权交易所,也就是“VIX”波动性指数的真正创造者。埃斯沃特说:“只要世界还是疯狂的,这些股票就能行。”

巴美列捷福公司管理着664亿美元资产。该公司的美国股票团队主管汤姆·斯雷特认为,类似的因素让MarketAxess“真的令人感到兴奋”。MarketAxess想让债券市场的低成本电子交易变得和股市一样普遍。斯雷特还说,随着利率上升,固定收益资产交易也应该增多,而这会把交易者吸引到MarketAxess的平台上。

股票交易一直是在线券商TD Ameritrade的支柱业务。但骏利亨德森的投资基金证券投资经理、管理着250亿美元资产的马克·平托指出,该公司也受益于利率上升。利率较低时,TD Ameritrade手中的客户保证金实际上处于亏损状态,“现在利率已经上升,此项业务也能实现一定的利润。”他还预计TD Ameritrade可能实施并购,因为最近对Scottrade Financial Services的收购已经有了成效。

Dave Eiswert, manager of the $1.2 billion T. Rowe Price Global Stock fund, on the other hand, is looking to capitalize on the increasing bumpiness of markets: More volatility translates to more buying and selling—which means more revenue for companies that take a percentage of every trade. He’s bullish on CME Group, the options and futures trading giant that should benefit as greater volatility leads to higher trade volume, and CBOE, which literally makes the “VIX” volatility index. “As long as the world’s crazy, these stocks work,” Eiswert says.

Similar factors make MarketAxess “really exciting,” says Tom Slater, head of the U.S. equities team at Baillie Gifford, which oversees $66.4 billion in assets. That company is hoping to make low-cost electronic trading as popular in the bond market as it is with stocks. And as interest rates rise, fixed-income trading should pick up too, Slater says, luring traders to MarketAxess’s platforms.

At online brokerage TD Ameritrade, stock trading has been the bread and butter. But the company has also benefited from higher interest rates, says Marc Pinto, a Janus Henderson portfolio manager responsible for $25 billion in assets. When rates were low, TD Ameritrade essentially lost money on the customer deposits it holds. “Now that rates have gone up, that business is modestly profitable,” says Pinto. He also envisions potential mergers with the brokerage, which is already seeing results from its recent acquisition of Scottrade.

***

推荐的5只金融股如下:

芝加哥商交所(股票代码:cme)

芝加哥期交所(股票代码:cboe)

美国合众银行(股票代码:usb)

MarketAxess(股票代码:mktx)

TD Ameritrade(股票代码:amtd)

以下是2019年30只最佳投资标的的其他成员:

5只科技类股票:

Alphabet(股票代码:googl)

Facebook(股票代码:fb)

动视暴雪(股票代码:atvi)

Take-Two Interactive Software(股票代码:ttwo)

德州仪器(股票代码:txn)

5只医疗类股票

雅培(股票代码:ABT)

默沙东(股票代码:MRK)

Illumina(股票代码:ILMN)

Exact Sciences(股票代码:EXAS)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals(股票代码:VRTX)

5只零售类股票

TJX公司(股票代码:tjx)

Burlington公司(股票代码:burl)

蒂夫尼(股票代码:tif)

家得宝(股票代码:hd)

亚马逊(股票代码:amzn)

Constellation Brands公司(股票代码:stz)

3只亚洲股票

台积电(股票代码:tsm)

Melco Resorts & Entertainment(股票代码:MLCO)

美团点评(港股)

5只海外企业股票

圣戈班集团(股票代码:CODYY)

Essity(股票代码:ESSYY)

空中客车(股票代码:EADSY)

Arcos Dorados(股票代码:EADSY)

伊塔乌联合银行控股公司(股票代码:ITUB)

Lojas Renner(股票代码:LRENY)

(财富中文网)

本文的另一版本登载在2018年12月1日出版的《财富》杂志上,是《2019投资者指南》文章的一部分。

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

CME Group (cme)

CBOE (cboe)

U.S. Bancorp (usb)

MarketAxess (mktx)

TD Ameritrade (amtd)

Below, the rest of “The 30 Best Stocks to Buy for 2019.”

Alphabet (googl)

Facebook (fb)

Activision Blizzard (atvi)

Take-Two Interactive Software (ttwo)

Texas Instruments (txn)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Merck (MRK)

Illumina (ILMN)

Exact Sciences (EXAS)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

TJX Companies (tjx)

Burlington Stores (burl)

Tiffany (tif)

Home Depot (hd)

Amazon (amzn)

Constellation Brands (stz)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (tsm)

Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO)

Meituan Dianping (HKG)

Saint-Gobain (CODYY)

Essity (ESSYY)

Airbus (EADSY)

Arcos Dorados (EADSY)

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB)

Lojas Renner (LRENY)

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune, as part of the “2019 Investor’s Guide.”

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