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业绩不佳,通用电气股价加速下滑

彭博社 2018年11月22日

目前困扰GE投资者的两大关键问题是GE金融需要注入多少资本,以及GE能源业务是否已接近底部。

由于高盛集团警告称通用电气(GE)陷入困境的金融子公司可能面临“尾部风险”,GE的股价将出现2007-2009年大衰退以来的最大单月跌幅。

高盛的分析师乔·里奇在报告中指出,全面回顾GE季报后,问题依然多于答案,特别是在GE金融(GE Capital)可能遇到新困难的情况下。

目前困扰GE投资者的两大关键问题是GE金融需要注入多少资本,以及GE能源业务是否已接近底部。高盛认为GE对GE金融进行权益投资的数额可能超过此前就2019年预估的30亿美元。

里奇在上周五称,高盛认为“GE并不便宜,原因包括其负债情况……以及和GE金融相关的尾部风险”。他同时将GE的目标价从12美元大幅下调至9美元。纽约时间上周五12:55,GE跌幅达5.4%,正在逼近2009年3月以来的最低点。

自从今年年初以来,GE的股价已下跌50%以上,而过去一个月的滑落势头尤为迅猛——本月初至今的跌幅达22%。按这样的速度推断,11月可能成为2009年2月重挫30%以后GE走势最差的一个月。10月底,GE披露说联邦机构扩大了对该公司账目调查的范围,分析师则警告称流动性顾虑可能不断加重,而且GE步履艰难的能源和金融业务的业绩可能会继续恶化。

美银美林的分析师安德鲁·奥宾在报告中认为,GE“在修复资产负债表方面有很长的路要走,同时基于一些事件出现的时间,GE可能要通过权益投资为GE金融注入逾100亿美元”。但给予GE“中性”评级的奥宾说,GE仍有多种手段来应付债务,包括资产变现。

奥宾认为,除了外界担忧,GE股价最近暴跌更多的是因为“信心,基本面的作用则没有那么大”。

美银美林还指出:“……GE的估值在一定程度上体现了‘对未知的恐惧’,原因是它的负债率不太高,能消化任何新出现的不利消息,而华尔街在过去一年中已经遭遇过多次负面意外。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

General Electric shares tumbled toward their worst month since the depths of last decade’s recession after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned of a potential “tail risk” at the troubled manufacturer’s finance arm.

A thorough review of GE’s 10-Q financial report still shows more questions than answers around the company, especially because GE Capital could face additional headwinds, analyst Joe Ritchie wrote in a note.

GE investors are grappling with two key questions—how big of an equity infusion GE Capital needs, and whether the Power unit business is close to a bottom. Goldman sees a chance that the equity infusion from GE to GE Capital might be larger than the $3 billion previously stated for 2019.

Goldman does not “see GE as inexpensive given its leverage profile…and tail risk associated with GE Capital,” the analyst said on last Friday, slashing the price target on the stock to $9 from $12. The stock sank as much as 5.4 percent at 12:55 p.m. in New York, on pace to close at its lowest since March 2009.

While GE shares have plunged by more than half this year, the pace of decline has been especially sharp over the past month, with the stock down 22% since the beginning of the month. At that rate, November would be the worst month for the stock since February 2009, when it fell 30%. The company disclosed an expanded federal accounting probe in late October, and analysts have warned about escalating liquidity concerns, as well as deteriorating results at GE’s troubled power division and financial business.

GE “has a long road to repair its balance sheet ahead of it, and based on the timing of certain events, GE could potentially have to put more than $10 billion of equity into GE Capital,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Andrew Obin wrote in a note. But Obin, who rates GE a neutral, said the company still has a number of levers to meet the liabilities, including monetizing its assets.

Concerns aside, the recent plight of GE shares is driven more by “sentiment, not as much fundamentals,” Obin said.

“… GE’s valuation partly reflects the ‘fear of unknown’, as the company’s balance sheet is thinly stretched to be able to absorb any incremental bad news and the Street has gone through multiple negative surprises over the past year,” Bank of America added.

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