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一项指标显示,美国的如今股价是2000年的两倍

彭博社 2018年08月09日

标普500的市销率已经攀升的历史高点,这对美国股市来说可能是个危险信号。


对于美国股市的抨击之一是:2009年以来利润普遍增加,导致估值过高成为了一个市场上波及广泛的长期问题。该理论认为,我们无处可躲。

而一个弱化了大型公司影响力的估值工具使这种危险进一步加剧。这个工具就是标普500公司股价收入比的中值。它关注股指的中值,弱化了苹果(Apple Inc.)和埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)等巨头的重要性。Leuthold Group计算的数据显示,该指标如今为2.63,而在2000年2月只有1.23。

与公司市值相比,该指标呈现出的估值情势更加危险。以此来看,标普500指数的市销率达的2.2倍,与18年前的峰值相同。

Leuthold的首席投资官道格·拉姆西认为其间的矛盾凸显了当今年代和泡沫年代的关键差异。那时,估值过高的现象主要集中于科技巨头。而如今,每只股票都很贵。

拉姆西在上周的纪要中写道:“去年,我们标出了标普500公司的市销率——它已经达到了2000年的泡沫水平,这是‘我们数据库中最令人恐惧的一张表’。这个增加的数据让一张本来就令人担忧的表格变得不适合出现在供家庭成员阅读的刊物上。”

本月可能标志着美国股市史上最长的牛市,随之而来的警告越来越多,而Leuthold的研究报告则是这些警告中的最新一条。随着美国牛市进入第10年,利润到达顶峰、利率提高、全球贸易紧张等各种因素都被看跌者视为股价跳水的可能原因。

截至纽约时间8月7日上午11点,标普500指数连续第四天上涨,距离今年1月创下的历史最高点仅有0.5%的差距。

市销率的中值在过去五年里都高于2000年,而市场还在推动着它不断走高。由市值加权的估值还没有达到泡沫水平,但Leuthold已经开始敲响警钟了。

诚然,抛开收入来看,成本削减、股份回购和减税都会影响评判公司的标准,如此一来,股市的估值就会合理许多。标普500公司21倍的市盈率仍然只有互联网泡沫时代市盈率的三分之二。

不过,对于一个让看涨者得到安慰的现象,Leuthold的数据提出了疑问:更多人参与到股市中来,是市场之幸,还是市场之殇?

目前来看,许多人认为有更多人参与股市是一个健康的迹象,意味着股市的上涨有着坚实的基础。不过在一切都上涨的情况下,市场中几乎没有剩下的价值了。

拉姆西表示:“估值过高的普遍性的确有助于解释价值投资经理如今的悲观情绪。相对于20世纪90年代的增长势头,他们经历过一段股价弱势时期。但长期的忍耐并未让他们在股市上真正捡到便宜——就像1999年和2000年那样。”(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

A knock against stocks is this: that the pervasiveness of gains since 2009 has made overvaluation a chronic problem across a broader-than-usual swath of the market. There’s nowhere to hide, the theory holds.

A valuation lens that tamps down the influence of the biggest companies highlights the danger. It’s the median price-to-sales ratio for members of the S&P 500. The measure, which de-emphasizes giant companies like Apple Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. by focusing on the center of the index, stands at 2.63 right now, compared with 1.23 in February 2000, data compiled by Leuthold Group showed.

The data reveal a more perilous valuation picture than one would get by looking at gauges that are skewed by a company’s market capitalization. By that approach, the S&P 500 traded at 2.2 times sales, in line with the peak levels seen 18 years ago.

To Doug Ramsey, Leuthold’s chief investment officer, the contrast highlights a key difference between now and the bubble years. Back then, overvaluation was highly concentrated to tech giants. Right now, everything is expensive.

“For the last year, we have labeled the S&P 500 price/sales ratio – which has returned to its Y2K bubble levels – the ‘scariest chart in our database,”’ Ramsey wrote in a note last week. “The addition transforms an already alarming chart into one that’s almost unfit for a family-friendly publication.”

Leuthold’s study adds to a growing list of caveats for a bull market that could become the longest in history this month. As the advance entered its 10th year, bears have touted everything from peak profits to higher interest rates to global trade tensions as reasons to bail.

The S&P 500 rose for a fourth day as of 11 a.m. on August 7 in New York, about 0.5 percent away from topping its all-time high reached in January.

The median price-sales ratio has been higher than it was in 2000 over the past five years and the market kept going higher. It’s not until the cap-weighted valuation reached the bubble level that alarms started ringing at Leuthold.

To be sure, viewed against earnings, a business yardstick that can be influenced by things such as cost cutting, share buybacks and tax cuts, stock valuations look more reasonable. At about 21 times profits, the S&P 500’s multiple is still about a third below levels seen in the dot-com era.

Yet Leuthold’s data raised a question about a phenomenon that equity bulls have found comfort in: Is wider stock participation a blessing or a curse for the market?

For now, many see wider breadth as a healthy sign that the advance is on a solid footing. But, with everything going up, that leaves little value left in the market.

“This breadth of overvaluation certainly helps explain today’s level of despondence among value managers,” Ramsey said. “They’ve suffered through a period of underperformance relative to growth and momentum that rivals the 1990s. But the long period of penance has not rewarded them with any truly cheap pockets of the stock market – like it did in 1999 and 2000.”

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