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投资理财

连白宫都开始担心股市,你呢?

Lucinda Shen 2018年02月08日

投资者担心,美联储可能会在今年更加激进地调高利率。

随着道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)和标普500指数(S&P 500)等主要股指在本周一跌掉了2018年的所有涨幅,投资者乃至白宫都开始担心起来,股市还会进一步下跌吗?

一位白宫官员周一早晨对美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC)表示:“股市下跌时我们总是会关注”,但也许是为了缓和人们的紧张不安,他补充道:“但我们同样对经济基础充满信心。”

由于劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)上周五发布了高于预期的工资数据,人们对美联储(Federal Reserve)加息的期望也有所提高,本周一,衡量美国股市的道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)连续第二天出现下跌。

尽管工人们可能对于每小时增加9美分工资乐意之至,但上周五的消息却让华尔街忐忑不安,周一股市可能多达几十亿美元的损失则更是雪上加霜。

投资者担心,如果美联储认为美国经济的发展过热,可能会在今年更加激进地调高利率。工资提高则是相关指标之一,它可能导致成本增高和通货膨胀。劳工统计局上周五表示,去年12月的工资提高了2.9%,达到26.74美元,涨幅超过了经济学家预测的2.6%。尽管对于债券收益而言这是个好消息,但对股市而言却不一定。公司可能贷款的成本可能更高,而随着投资者转向风险更低的债券,公司的股票也可能遭遇损失。

工业股居多的道琼斯指数在周一收盘时下跌了1,100点至24,345点,这标志着股指相较去年开始正式下滑。标普500指数下跌了2.2%至2,702点,开年以来的涨幅也已消耗殆尽。科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌1%至7,168点,堪堪维持住了2018年的正增长。

根据最新可获得的数据,从1月26日道琼斯指数达到2018年最高点至上周五,股市已经损失了3,610亿美元。作为对比,石油巨头埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)的市值大约就是3,600亿美元,而道琼斯的总市值为6.8万亿美元。

想要更宏观地了解亏损的规模,还可以看看标普500指数。道琼斯指数包含了30家公司,而标普500指数包含了500家公司。从1月26日至上周五,标普500指数的市值降低了9,820亿美元,总额目前约为24.5万亿美元。

这是否预示着未来将出现更大规模的股票抛售?

按照分析师和投资者目前的说法,市场将继续缓慢上行——即使是现在,我们也还没有陷入低谷。

由迈克尔·威尔逊领衔的摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)股票策略师在周一的照会中评论道:“随着市场继续消化这些冲击,我们预计短期内股指会继续下行,不过在投资者冷静下来以后,股指将达到新高。然而,这需要数周时间,我们不急着低价买入,而是在等待更好的技术信号。”

Evercore ISI的丹尼斯·德布斯切尔表示,投资者在重回股市之前可能会选择静观其变。

托斯滕·斯洛克表示,最近股票抛售的部分原因也在于投资者正转向比股票风险更低的资产。

他写道:“把资金从风险资产转移到无风险资产会产生一些震荡,就像市场现在的情况一样。基本上,我们都会看到这样骚乱的小插曲,不过本质上经济扩张将会持续。”

大家之所以对股市的走向不太担心,是因为最近各家公司的财报都表现强劲。

Yardeni Research的爱德华·亚德尼写道:“周五的下跌之后,无论是短期内是上扬还是下跌,我都看好行情,因为业绩预期仍然非常乐观。过去七周里,行业分析师普遍预期的2018年标普500指数每股收益提高了9美元,在2月2日这一周达到了155.26美元。”

这不意味着所有人都认为下跌只是短期现象。黑石集团(Blackstone Group)总裁托尼·詹姆斯就评论道,股市现在已经充分估值了。

在接受CNBC采访时,这位亿万富翁表示他预计股市今年会下跌10%至20%。(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

With major stock market indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 erasing their 2018 gains on Monday, investors and even the White House are indeed starting to worry: Will the market fall further?

“We’re always concerned when the market loses any value,” a White House official told CNBC early Monday, adding, perhaps to allay any jitters, “But we’re also confident in the economy’s fundamentals.”

The U.S. stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq fell for the second day in a row Monday, due to rosier-than-expected wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday—pushing up expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

While workers may have embraced the news of some extra nine cents per hour, the Friday news also sent jitters up and down Wall Street—adding what is likely billions in losses to the stock market Monday.

Investors are concerned that the Fed may hike interest rates more aggressively this year if it thinks the U.S. economy is growing overheated. And higher wages, which may lead to greater spending and inflation, can be an indicator of that. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed Friday that wages had risen 2.9% to $26.74 an hour in December—up from the 2.6% economists were expecting. While that’s a boon for bond yields, it’s not always a winning combination for stocks. Companies may have to spend more to borrow funds, while their stocks may lose some of their pull as investors seek out less risky bonds.

The industrials-heavy Dow Jones index slid 1,100 points to 24,345 as of Monday’s close—putting it officially in the red for 2018. The S&P 500 shed 2.2%, falling to 2,702 points and erasing its 2018 gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, was down 1% to 7,168—still just barely hanging onto its 2018 gains.

That adds to the $361 billion in losses Dow Jones Industrial companies have already posted between the market’s 2018 high on Jan. 26 and Friday, according to the most recent available data. For comparison, oil giant Exxon Mobil commands a market capitalization of about $360 billion to $6.8 trillion.

For a greater look at the magnitude of the losses, look to the S&P 500, which tracks about 500 companies compared to the Dow’s 30. Between Jan. 26 and Friday, stocks in that index lost $982 billion in market capitalization, for a total of around $24.5 trillion.

So is this a sign that a greater selloff is in the works?

Based on what analysts and investors are saying at the moment, the markets will continue upward slower than before—even though we haven’t hit the bottom just yet.

“We expect further downside in the near term as markets continue to digest these shocks, but ultimately we will trade to new highs as cooler heads prevail,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson commented in a Monday note. “This should take several weeks, however, and we are in no rush to buy this dip as we wait for better technical signals.”

Investors are likely to wait for any surprises before jumping back into the market, says Denis Busschere of Evercore ISI in a note.

The recent selloff, says Torsten Slok, is also partly due to investors turning to less risky assets than equities.

“The allocation of money from risky assets to risk-free assets is going to be bumpy, as seen in markets today,” he wrote. “Fundamentally, we expect such episodic bouts of turbulence, but the underlying economic expansion will continue.”

Underlying this general lack of worry about the stock market’s direction is the fact that recent earnings have been strong, per company guidance.

“Whatever might be the short-term follow-up (or -down) on Friday’s drop, I remain bullish because the outlook for earnings remains very upbeat,” wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. “Industry analysts have raised their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2018 by $9 per share over the past seven weeks to $155.26 during the week of February 2.”

That’s not to say everyone agrees that the bloodbath will be short-lived. Blackstone Group President Tony James commented that equities have reached full value at this point.

In an interview with CNBC, the billionaire said he expects markets to fall between 10 to 20% this year.

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