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投资理财

比特币遭腰斩,“接盘侠”损失惨重

彭博社 2018年02月06日

在此轮暴跌中,损失最惨重的,当然是那些在比特币币值最高位处接盘的人。

2017年8月30日,日本东京Coin Trader比特币零售店的一台比特币自动出纳机。Tomohiro Ohsumi—Bloomberg/Getty Images 

对于比特币投资者来说,总有一些时候是特别考验你的灵魂的。

在美国推出比特币期货后,比特币的币值在去年12月一度涨至近2万美元,此后便一路暴跌,币值被拦腰砍掉一半以上,截止至上周五已跌至7614美元。不过据比特币网站coinmarketcap.com称,截止到上周六纽约当地时间下午2时58分,比特币的币值又回升了7.5个百分点,回升至9290.15美元。

在此轮暴跌中,损失最惨重的,当然是那些在比特币币值最高位处接盘的人。此前不久,杰米·迪蒙和鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼等比特币怀疑论者就曾指出,比特币是史上最大的资产泡沫之一,且已显现出贬值的迹象。“接盘侠”们的恐慌性出售,也与早期比特币力挺者们呼吁的“持有”大相径庭。在早前的暴跌中,一名交易员几乎语无伦次地乞求投资者继续持有比特币,无奈它最终还是在接盘侠们割肉的呻吟中淹没了。

比特币之所以进入主流视野,与比特币期货的获批不无关系。比特币期获被开绿灯后,很多散户害怕错过下一个风口,纷纷建仓投资比特币。随着越来越多新手涌入,比特币的币值迅速飙升至10000美元,然后是15000美元,在一些交易所甚至被炒到20000美元,这一切只用了短短几周的时间。

就连一些比特币的大炒家也认为,比特币的非理性暴涨已经进入了失控的范畴。比如原计划投资5亿美元建立数字加密货币对冲基金但最终改为筹建数字加密货币商业银行的亿万富翁迈克·诺沃格拉茨就警告道,比特币很有可能会跌至8000美元。Fundstrat公司的托马斯·李也表示,比特币有可能会先跌至9000美元左右,而后才会再度上涨。

托马斯·李上周五在接受电话采访时表示,近期接连几起比特币被盗事件,以及不断收紧的监管“都影响了人们的信心。在事态明朗之前,很多投资者都在观望。但是现在还没有什么根本的转变。这种情况是健康的,有时一些挫折是必要的,因为没有什么东西是始终直线上涨的。”

随着比特币的总市值于今年1月暴涨至8000亿美元以上,各国监管部门都加大了对比特币的重视。各国管控比特币交易的新闻不时见诸报端,导致一些高位买进的散户投资者出现了恐慌性抛售,以避免遭受更大的损失。

不过想要继续投资比特币的仍大有人在,这些人曾多次将旧金山的比特币交易所Coinbase Inc挤到崩溃。一旦比特币市场反弹,他们还将继续投资比特币。比如自上周金融经纪APP罗宾汉金融(Robinhood Financial)宣布将提供零成本比特币交易服务后,很快就有100多万人注册了“抢先体验”功能。

上涨800%

研究网站CryptoCompare的查尔斯·海特认为,比特币的前景依然是乐观的。因为比特币开发者正在这项技术上取得突破,以后比特币网络的交易速度将变得更快。另外海特也表示,即将成形的监管框架和投资者保护措施从长远来看,对数字加密货币的发展仍然是积极的。

与此同时,很多早期入手比特币的投资者并没有因市场异动而盲目抛售。去年年初时,比特币的币值只有1000美元;2016年年初,比特币只值450美元。所以那时入手的投资者对这次的损失不屑一顾——毕竟他们现在的回报率还是高达800%的。

征战比特币界的老将、比特币研究平台Trive公司的CEO大卫·蒙德罗斯表示:“这只是年初的一次市场异动。再过12个月,我们甚至都不会记得它。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

For Bitcoin investors, these are the times that try one’s soul.

After surging to almost $20,000 in December following the introduction of regulated futures contracts in the U.S., the world’s largest cryptocurrency has lost more than half its value, plummeting to as low as $7,614 on Friday. It regained some ground on Saturday, rising 7.5 percent to $9,290.15 as of 2:58 p.m. in New York, according to coinmarketcap.com.

Particularly hard hit have been those who got swept up in the mania just before what skeptics ranging from Jamie Dimon to Nouriel Roubini have labeled as one of the biggest asset bubbles in history began showing signs of deflating. Selling by “weak hands,” as latecomers are sometimes called across the investing world, contrasts with the view of early advocates pledging to HODL — one frenzied trader’s misspelled entreaty to hold onto the tokens during an earlier rout that’s become the mantra of Bitcoin purists.

Bitcoin’s rise in mainstream consciousness was brought on in part by retail investors’ fear of missing out after viewing the approval of futures as an endorsement by the establishment. As more novice investors jumped in, Bitcoin shot above $10,000, then $15,000, then as high as $20,000 on some exchanges, in a span of only a few weeks.

Some of Bitcoin’s biggest backers even warned the euphoria had gotten out of hand. Billionaire Mike Novogratz, who shelved his plans to open a $500 million cryptocurrency hedge fund and instead wants to build a crypto merchant bank, warned that Bitcoin would fall to as low as $8,000. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat said the cryptocurrency would slide to as low as $9,000 before shooting back up.

Recent hacks and tightening regulation have “weighed on confidence,” Lee said in a telephone interview Friday. “Investors are staying on the sidelines until there’s some visibility, but nothing fundamental has changed. It’s healthy; you need drawbacks sometimes as nothing goes up in a straight line.”

Those highs helped increase the scrutiny regulators as the total market capitalization climbed to more than $800 billion at one point in January. A steady steam of headlines since about officials cracking down on the market sparked jitters and caused those same retail traders who got in at the highs, to panic sell, hoping to avoid even greater losses.

But the hordes of people wanting to trade crypto, which repeatedly crashed San Francisco-based exchange Coinbase Inc. when the market was rallying, are still there. More than one million people have signed up for “early access” to the brokerage app Robinhood Financial’s cryptocurrency section since it said it would offer no-cost trading in digital coins last week.

Up 800%

Charles Hayter of research website CryptoCompare sees good news on the horizon, as Bitcoin developers are making breakthroughs in technology that will help the network process transactions faster. Also, Hayter said an emerging regulatory framework and investor protections will be positive for cryptocurrencies in the long term.

Meanwhile, many investors who got in earlier aren’t budging. Bitcoin was worth about $1,000 at the beginning of last year and about $450 at the start of 2016, so those who bought then are shrugging off these losses — they’re still up more than 800 percent.

“It’s just early-year market blues,” said David Mondrus, a long-time crypto enthusiast and chief executive of Trive, a blockchain-based research platform. “In 12 months, we won’t even remember it.”

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