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2018年美股会崩盘吗?华尔街这样预言

Lucinda Shen 2018年01月20日

华尔街巨头预计,接下来一年美股将继续走高,只是不会有2017年惊艳。

美股又经历了走势连连上升的一年,投资者免不了会担心:会不会要崩盘了?

华尔街2018年美股预测显示,至少未来12个月可能性不大。华尔街巨头预计,接下来一年美股将继续走高,只是不会有2017年惊艳。

在高盛资产管理公司发布的一段视频中,公司董事总经理凯恩·布伦南表示:“我们认为,股市2018年仍会表现亮眼。”

随着美国经济持续复苏,投资者又预期特朗普政府会兑现承诺下调企业税,2017年美国股市(以标普500指数衡量)累计上涨20%。14家左右华尔街银行预计,在减税和全球经济强劲增长的利好推动下,2018年标普500还会上涨5%,涨至2818点。

摩根大通资产管理公司的全球首席策略师大卫·凯利警告,鉴于美联储加息,投资者可能发现2018年股市波动增大,下半年增长放缓。加息意味着借贷成本增加。

美股还有走高的空间吗?华尔街认为有。

2017年,标普500收于2680点附近。85%的受访华尔街银行都预计,2018年该指数还会走高。

With an unexpectedly stellar year for stock markets behind us, it’s hard not to entertain an underlying fear: When will the crash come?

Not in the next 12 months, according Wall Street’s 2018 stock market predictions. According to most major Wall Street firms, the U.S. equity market is in for yet another year of strength—albeit not one as meteoric as 2017.

“We think equities will continue to outperform in 2018,” said Kane Brenan of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in a video published by the company.

The U.S. equity market (as measured by the S&P 500 index) has surged 20% to 2,680 this year as the American economy continued its recovery and investors looked forward to corporate tax cuts promised by the Trump administration. Indeed, some 14 Wall Street banks expect the index to rise another 5% to 2,818 in the coming year courtesy of tax cuts and continued strength in the global economy.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly warns that investors should expect greater volatility next year and slower growth in the later part of 2018 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Higher interest rates makes it more expensive to borrow.

Does the Stock Market Still Have Room to Run? Wall Street Thinks So.

The S&P 500 is ending its year around 2,680. Eighty-five percent of Wall Street banks surveyed expected it to end higher in 2018.

看好美股的同时,多位资产管理经理也在美国以外地区积极寻找投资机会。2008年到2009年大衰退以来,美国的经济复苏一直领先于全球其他地区。

摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师大卫·勒保维兹在2017年12月的报告中写道:“如果要说未来一年的投资选择,我们认为,其他经济体在经济周期中所处的阶段都比美国早得多,所以利润增长仍有机会达到两位数。因此在增长趋势明确之前,先去海外市场多做些准备是明智之举。”

经合组织(OECD)预计,2017年其追踪的45个国家都会迎来经济增长,这也是十年来首次,意味着全球经济正在复苏。2017年10月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)也将2018年全球GDP预期增速上调至3.7%,较此前的预期提高0.1个百分点。

布伦南称:“各国股市之中,我们认为新兴市场尤其值得关注。”他认为,欧洲和日本等发达地区股市也可以考虑。

从国际资本流动看,投资资金一直在流向全球股市。2017年前11个月,全球股票基金合计净流入资金1490亿美元。独立投资研究机构CFRA的投资策略分析师林赛·贝尔称,2016年同期股票类基金的净流入资金仅有160亿美元。

投资者对华尔街的预测应该持保留态度。2016年,《财富》调查的约12家银行预计,到2017年末标普500指数将涨到2200至2500点。实际上,到2017年12月26日标普500已经接近2700点。还有些银行预计,唐纳德·特朗普就任总统后股市振幅将加大,一年来市场却出奇地平静。

另外,也有人对2018年美股预期没那么乐观。研究机构Leuthold Group的首席投资策略分析师吉姆·保尔森向《华尔街日报》表示,预计2018年美股将回调10%到15%,因为目前美股的点位过高。(财富中文网)

译者:Pessy

审稿:夏林

Separately, many asset managers meanwhile are looking outside the U.S. for investing opportunities. The world has lagged behind the U.S. in terms of economic recovery since the Great Recession of 2008-9.

“As we consider the investment options available in the coming year, economies outside the U.S. are far earlier in their respective business cycles, and still experiencing double-digit profit growth,” wrote J.P. Morgan’s David Lebovitz in December note. “Thus, with the first day of school just around the corner, investors would be wise to choose a curriculum that allows them to study abroad.”

For the first time in a decade, all 45 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are expected to show economic growth—a sign that a global recovery is underway. The International Monetary Fund also upped its outlook for 2018 world economic growth to 3.7% in October, a 0.1 percentage point increase.

“Within equities we think emerging markets are a particularly interesting place to look,” Brenan said, pointing also to Europe and Japan for developed market ideas.

The pivot toward global equities has been an ongoing trend, with international equity funds receiving $149 billion in net inflows during the first 11 months of 2017. That’s up from $16 billion a year earlier, according to Lindsay Bell, Investment Strategist at CFRA.

Investors should take predictions with a grain of salt. Last year, some 12 banks polled by Fortune said they expected the S&P 500 to end 2017 between 2,200 to 2,500. Today, it’s nearing 2,700. Some also expected greater volatility due to U.S. president Donald Trump’s actions, though markets have been surprisingly quiet this year.

Meanwhile, not everyone thinks the stock market will gain in 2018. Leuthold Group chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen told the Wall Street Journal that he expects a market correction of 10% to 15% next year, a result of already high valuations.

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