订阅

多平台阅读

微信订阅

杂志

申请纸刊赠阅

订阅每日电邮

移动应用

投资理财

从比特币到伯利兹,2017年最好和最差资产

彭博社 2018年01月17日

在2017年,风险最高的资产总得来说表现良好,投资者明显看好股票、新兴市场货币和公司债券。

这一年是持有比特币的绝佳时段,但投资乌兹别克斯坦的货币苏姆就糟糕了。

2017年已经过去,环视全球范围内的赢家和输家,总的来说风险最高的资产表现良好,而且投资者显然看好股票、新兴市场货币和公司债券。众人眼中最安全、起伏最小的证券,比如日本政府债券,则落在了后面。

2017年,最引人关注的投资话题可能非加密货币莫属,从吉米·戴蒙的贬斥到凯蒂·佩里就此向沃伦·巴菲特提出的问题都是如此。比特币几乎飙升了15倍,以太坊、莱特币等规模较小的数字货币至少上涨了60倍。当然,和这波行情相伴的不乏将其称为泡沫的悲观人士。

我们对过去一年里各类资产中的领头羊和副班长做了如下总结:

股票

看好乌克兰股市的投资者这一年过的很好。国际货币基金组织去年5月曾表示,它看到乌克兰经济“有令人欣喜 的复苏迹象”而且“为今后的增长打下了很有希望的基础”。乌克兰股市是新兴市场整体行情的一部分,它们上扬的原因是投资者为寻求更高的回报而进入发展中国家。

不过,对把宝押在卡塔尔和巴基斯坦股市的投资者来说,这一年就不那么好过了。2017年年中,沙特、阿联酋、巴林和埃及联手切断了卡塔尔的外交和交通运输途径,致使其陷入混乱。在巴基斯坦,股指面临高基数,而且受到了外资撤离的不利影响(注:我们没有考虑全年上涨386.5倍的委内瑞拉股市,因为这几乎完全是委内瑞拉货币快速贬值所致)。

债券

已有30年历史的固定收益证券行情在2017年继续上演,通胀加速上升以及货币政策收紧将成为终结者的预言再遭打脸。2017年表现最好的债券是2016年的输家,其中最为突出的包括希腊和阿根廷债券。

要在债券上亏钱得下一番功夫——日本央行给政府债券市场兜底以及委内瑞拉经济崩溃让日债和委国债券分别成为发达和发展中市场上表现最差的债券。

小国伯利兹在新兴市场政府债券排行榜上拔得头筹,原因是去年4月穆迪投资者服务公司上调了其债券评级。

公司债券方面,美国高收益债分化明显,食品饮料、零售和交通运输公司的债券大幅上扬,印刷公司Cenveo Corp的债券持有人则蒙受了损失。

在新兴市场公司债中,印尼一家能源公司的债券表现最佳,和巴西大型建筑公司Odebrecht SA有关的债券则成为投资者应该避开的投资对象,原因是这家公司卷入了横扫南美的腐败丑闻。

大宗商品

钯通常用于汽油车的尾气净化装置,2017年其涨幅超过50%,居各类贵金属之首,原因是投资者认为汽油车使用量将上升。铜和铝在这一年的表现同样不俗,主要是因为全球经济前景普遍好转,而这可能意味着工业金属使用量的增长。

另一方面,糖和天然气在2017年走势较差。糖价下挫是因为人们担心全球供给过剩,而过去的两个暖冬留下了大量天然气库存,则导致天然气最近跌至10个月来的最低点。

货币

货币领域的最大赢家是“名不见经传”的莫桑比克美提卡。发生债务危机后,这个东非国家一直在努力控制通胀,莫桑比克央行则表示它希望通胀率处于更低而且更稳定的水平。

表现较差的货币中,乌兹别克斯坦苏姆大幅下跌,原因是这个金矿丰富的国家取消了和美元挂钩的联系汇率制度。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

 

It was a great year to hold bitcoin, but a bad time to have been invested in the Uzbek soum.

As 2017 winds to a close, a look at the winners and losers around the globe shows that, broadly speaking, the riskiest assets performed well, with bullish sentiment on display in stocks, emerging-market sovereigns and corporate debt. Securities generally seen as the safest and least volatile bets — think Japanese government bonds — trailed behind.

There was perhaps no investing idea that attracted more attention in 2017 than cryptocurrencies, from Jamie Dimon’s dismissal to Katy Perry quizzing Warren Buffett about the subject. Bitcoin soared almost 1,500 percent while smaller counterparts such as ethereum and litecoin gained at least 6,000 percent. Of course, the surges were accompanied by no shortage of pessimists calling a bubble.

Here’s our wrap-up of the best and worst performers in various asset classes over the past year:

Equities

Bulls in Ukraine had a good year after the International Monetary Fund said in May that it sees “welcome signs of recovery” for the economy and “a promising basis for further growth.” It was part of a broader rally in emerging markets as investors flocked to developing nations in hopes of higher returns.

It wasn’t a good year, however, to have bet on stocks in Qatar and Pakistan. The Persian Gulf country was thrown into chaos mid-year when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic and transport ties. In Pakistan, the index was coming from a high base, but also suffered from foreigners pulling money out of the market. (NOTE: We excluded the Venezuelan stock exchanges 3,865 percent gain this year because it’s almost entirely due to the effect of a rapidly devaluing currency.)

Bonds

The three-decade bull run for fixed income rolled on in 2017, defying yet again predictions that faster inflation and tighter monetary policy would bring it to an end. The bond world’s best performers were yesteryear’s losers, with Greece and Argentina among the standouts.

It took effort to lose money on bonds this year — the Japanese central bank’s stitch-up of its government-debt market, and Venezuela’s economic collapse made those two the worst performers in the developed and emerging categories, respectively.

Tiny Belize earned top marks in the emerging government-debt category after an upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service in April.

Turning to the corporate-debt world, U.S. high-yield securities saw a wide dispersion of results, from high-flying food-and-beverage, retail and transport companies to trauma for holders of bonds sold by commercial printer Cenveo Corp.

In the emerging-market corporate debt category, an Indonesian energy company topped the list, while securities tied to Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht SA — which is embroiled in a corruption scandal that stretches across South America — proved to be ones to avoid.

Commodities

Palladium, which is typically used in pollution-control devices for gasoline vehicles, led gains in precious metals this year by climbing more than 50 percent as investors bet on increased usage in vehicles. Copper and aluminum bulls also had a great year. Those gains were largely tied to better economic prospects across the globe, which would mean higher usage of industrial metals.

On the down side, sugar and natural gas had a bad year. The sweetener has been falling on concerns of a global surplus, while natural gas recently hit a 10-month low following two warm winters that left stockpiles at high levels.

Currencies

The biggest gainer in the currency space is a bit on the obscure side: the Mozambique new metical. The East African country has struggled to control inflation following a debt crisis, but the central bank has said it wants to achieve a lower and more stable rate.

On the down side, the Uzbek soum tumbled after the gold-rich republic removed the currency’s peg to the dollar.

我来点评

  最新文章

最新文章:

500强情报中心

财富专栏