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2018年该买哪些股票?请看《财富》杂志的推荐

归功于如火如荼的技术革命,如今经济中的每个行业都充斥着所谓的“科技”公司。我们为您精心挑选了31只股票,让您在不需要承担太高风险的情况下,也能从科技革命中轻松盈利。

肯·艾伦有一个最喜欢的故事:一个男人怎样将胆怯变成了一笔小小的财富。2012年的时候,这个男人打算开一家小店进军零售业。但一想到亚马逊的在线商业做得越来越大,他便生怕有一天会被亚马逊挤出这个行业。在苦思冥想了11个小时之后,他决定将自己打算拿来做种子资金的这笔钱全部用来购买亚马逊的股票。

在当时看来,他的赌注不可谓不高,甚至有点蛮干的意思。当年的亚马逊刚刚建立起了“什么都卖的网商”的名声,但多年来它的利润基本上是不存在的。(而且它还搞了个莫名其妙的副业,弄了很多仓库来装服务器。)另外,作为一家互联网零售商,亚马逊进入的行业是很多投资者避之唯恐不及的,生怕这个行业会成为第二个大泡沫或无底洞。

现在让我们快进到2017年底。T. Rowe Price科技基金的投资经理艾伦对这位胆小的男人只剩下了佩服。过去五年,亚马逊的股票上涨了近400%,它也是艾伦乃至整个T. Rowe Price公司持仓最多的股票——这家公司托管的资产近9500亿美金。亚马逊当年鼓捣的那个“莫名其妙的副业”也早已成了市场领先的云服务部门,且亚马逊已经连续10个季度宣告盈利。所以很显然,买亚马逊的股票比自己开一家小店更赚钱。

亚马逊股票的火箭式上涨,是科技史上最伟大的成功故事之一。但它对投资者的意义远远不止于此。亚马逊已经成长为一个拥有多样化业务的企业,可以说它的股票就是整个市场的缩影。它代表了后金融危机时代一种横扫整个经济的变革,它打破了所谓“科技股”和市面上其他股票的藩篱。

首先要申明的是,严格地说,亚马逊并不是一只科技股,这一点可能会让很多投资者感到惊讶。在标普500等很多股指中,它都被归入非必需性消费品类别,也就是说,它跟耐克、迪士尼、星巴克同属一个类别。不过如果你问了那些通过成为亚马逊订阅用户而每月自动有卫生纸送到家门的人,他们或许会觉得亚马逊更像一家必需性消费品公司。现在亚马逊自家品牌的家用电池在网上卖得比金霸王(Duracell)还火,另外亚马逊从全食公司(一家亚马逊于今年夏天收购的食杂品公司)获得的营收入也达到每年160亿美元以上。另外亚马逊旗下还有改变了流媒体视频行业的Netflix,还有传言称亚马逊打算进入药品市场。这些让人不禁感到,貌似没有哪个行业是亚马逊不能攻克的。

就在亚马逊扩张与进化的同时,美国股市也在重构。科技公司对股市的主导力已经达到了前所未有的水平,美股的五家最有价值上市公司——苹果、谷歌的母公司Alphabet、微软、亚马逊、Facebook都是清一色的科技公司。如果没有科技行业的强力崛起,标普500指数今年也不可能强力回升19.5%,能回升到14.6%就算不错了。虽然亚马逊的不断扩张让许多投资者感到紧张,理财经理们却认为,科技巨头企业就是今天的蓝筹股。换句话说,如果你想跑赢大盘,或至少跟上大盘,你就不能绕过这些大牌科技股。

但高盛资产管理公司的客户投资组合管理和业务策略全球总监凯蒂·科赫也强调,投资者在选择股票和分散投资上的思维方式也已发生了转变。科赫还建议,“五巨头”的股票虽然值得买入,“不过同时也要意识到他们给行业带来了哪些颠覆性的东西,以及这会带来哪些赢家和输家。”颠覆是无处不在的,因为现在经济的各个角落都充斥着各种科技公司,他们的核心任务就是做技术,而其他行业的企业也纷纷把技术变革放在自己商业模式的核心地位。

综上所述,作为投资者来说,建立一个完全由科技股组成的投资组合,借技术创新之力实现财富快速增长,不仅是可能的,也是合理的。这就好比前些年,营养学家们把食物金字塔颠倒了过来,将“塔基”也就是我们最应该多吃的东西从碳水化合物换成了蔬菜和水果。普通投资者当前要想实现健康的增长率,其投资组合就应该以科技股为基础,而不再是那些大银行或大石油公司的股票。

与此同时,资产管理专家们已经减持那些受新科技影响导致利润下降的行业。比如路佛集团(Leuthold Group)的首席投资官道格·拉姆西掌管着15亿美元的客户资产,但他并未持有任何能源、消费品、电力或电信股,然而他的投资组合有三分之一是科技股,他还在考虑继续提高这个比例。如果你觉得这种做法是在吹泡沫,别忘了与历史估值相比,现在的科技股还算是比较便宜的。未来12个月它的预期PE大概是19倍,只高于标普500指数4%。而在“.com”泡沫的最高峰时,科技板块的估值曾一度超过了标普500指数121%。“这跟今天的情况完全没有可比性。”拉姆齐说。

科技板也是分析师眼中2018年将增长最快的板块。过去五年,T. Rowe Price公司的蓝筹股增长基金的年化收益率达到了惊人的18.5%(2017年更是达到了37%),令标普500相形见绌。基金经理拉里·普利亚表示,有些十几年前他避之唯恐不及的公司现在已经是他持有的最大资产了,比如亚马逊、Alphabet、微软、Facebook等等(其中Facebook虽然比前几家公司晚了一代,但在他的投资组合中却是第二大资产)。不过好在认购价格的增长与这些企业自身的增长基本是同步的。“很多科技公司的商业模式随着时间的推移,变得越来越稳定和不可或缺。”

普通散户投资者敢不敢把大部分储蓄押在这些高增长的科技公司上?很多投资者发现,要想让你的投资组织跑赢市场,你对“科技”的定义就不能太死。“科技并不是一个单一的行业,它的触手早已渗透到了所有其他行业。”科赫举例道,在零售(电商)、汽车(无人驾驶)、银行(移动支付)、医疗(大数据基因技术)等行业,科技的影响力都是极其巨大的。换句话说,现在哪只股票不是科技股?科赫赫认为:“有一些非常非常大的超级趋势就要发生了,但你的投资触角要伸到纯科技行业以外,甚至是美国以外,才能接触到所有这些东西。”

有鉴于此,我们采访了几位顶级的理财经理,请他们帮我们建立了一个100%由科技股组成的投资组合——不过它们都是广义上的科技股,而且仍然保持了比较广泛的多样性。

以下是《财富》杂志看好的股票:

4只科技公司股:

英伟达公司(Nvidia)

应用材料公司(Applied Materials)

英飞凌公司(Infineon)

思科公司(Cisco)

6只自动化和机器人概念股:

霍尼威尔公司(Honeywell)

儒博科技公司(Roper Technologies)

Fortive公司

发那科公司(Fanuc)

波音公司(Boeing)

史丹利百德公司(Stanley Black & Decker)

5只金融科技股将在2018有上佳表现:

Fiserv公司

Inernational Exchange公司

贝宝公司(PayPal)

万事达公司(Matercard)

Visa公司

3只电子商务概念股:

Priceline公司

百胜公司(Yum Brands)

麦当劳公司(McDonald’s)

5只新兴市场公司股:

阿里巴巴公司

腾讯公司

可成科技公司(Catcher Techonology)

瑞声集团(AAC Technologies)

新东方教育科技集团

4只生物科技和医疗股:

阿里接姆制药公司(Alnylam Pharmaceuticals)

Sage Therapeutics公司

联合健康集团(UnitedHealth Group)

Intuitive Surgical公司

(财富中文网)

本文的另一版本以《2018投资者股票与基金指南:全科技投资组合》为题载于2017年12月15日刊的《财富》杂志。

译者:贾政景

Ken Allen has a favorite story about a man who turned a case of cold feet into a small fortune. Back in 2012, the guy was considering going into retail and opening a store. But the prospective shopkeeper couldn’t shake the fear that Amazon, whose impact on commerce was only growing, would eventually put him out of business. At the 11th hour, he decided to take what was going to be his seed money and put it all in Amazon stock instead.

At the time, the bet seemed risky, even foolhardy. The e-commerce giant had established its reputation as the “everything store,” but its profit margins, year after year, were puny or nonexistent. (The company was also spending a lot of money on a quirky side business involving warehouses full of servers.) What’s more, as an Internet retailer, it belonged to an industry that many investors were wary of, fearing a repeat of the dotcom bust and burnout.

Fast-forward to the end of 2017, and Allen, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price’s Science & Technology Fund, has nothing but respect for the reluctant retailer. Amazon stock has returned almost 400% over the past five years. It’s now not only Allen’s top holding, but the biggest position of T. Rowe Price as a whole, a company with almost $950 billion under management. That quirky side business? It’s now Amazon’s market-leading cloud-services division, and the company has reported profits for 10 quarters in a row. The bottom line: Owning Amazon stock has been much more lucrative than stocking shelves.

Amazon’s stratospheric rise, of course, is one of the great success stories in technology. But it also represents something broader and more important for investors. The company has expanded to encompass a diversified range of businesses that make it, in a sense, a microcosm of the market in a single stock. And it embodies the powerful wave of change that has swept the economy since the financial crisis—one that has broken down the barriers between “tech stocks” and the rest of the market.

For starters, it may come as a surprise to many investors that, technically speaking, Amazon is not a tech stock. In the S&P 500 and other indexes, it belongs to the consumer discretionary sector, for companies that make and sell nonnecessities, alongside Nike, Walt Disney, and Starbucks. On the other hand, ask anyone whose toilet paper automatically arrives via Amazon subscription, and the e-commerce company seems more like a consumer staple. Amazon’s house-brand batteries now outsell Duracell online, and the company will now get upwards of $16 billion a year in annual revenue from a grocery store—Whole Foods, which it acquired over the summer. Add to that its $16 billion-a year cloud business, its Netflix-challenging video streaming, and rumblings that it may enter the pharmacy market, and there’s a sense that there’s no industry Amazon won’t conquer.

The evolving reach of Amazon has coincided with a reconstitution of the U.S. stock market. Tech companies now dominate the market to an unprecedented extent, comprising the five most valuable companies: Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook. Without the tech sector, the S&P 500 would have returned 14.6% this year through late November; instead it returned 19.5%. And while its relentless expansion has made many investors nervous, money managers argue that it’s time to accept the tech giants as the blue chips of today. In other words, if you want to have any shot of beating, or even keeping up with the market, you can’t afford to avoid them.

But Katie Koch, global head of client portfolio management and business strategy for fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, also highlights a paradigm shift in the way investors should think about picking stocks and about diversification itself. Own tech’s Big Five, she says, “but be cognizant of the disruption that they’re trafficking in, and how that can create other winners and losers.” That disruption is omnipresent because there are now tech companies everywhere in the economy—companies whose central missions are technology-centric, and those in other sectors that are making technical innovations central to their business models.

The upshot of all this is that it’s now possible—and maybe sensible—to build an all-tech portfolio that can tap the incredible growth that technological innovation offers, while still being diversified enough to protect investors from risk. It’s akin to that period a few years ago when dietitians inverted the food pyramid, rethinking the “base”—the foods we were supposed to eat most often—and swapping out carbs in favor of more bountiful helpings of fruit and veggies. These days, for a healthy rate of growth, tech should form the foundation of the typical investor’s portfolio, going where banks and perhaps Big Oil used to be.

At the same time, money management pros are lightening up on industries where profits have been undercut by new technologies. Doug Ramsey, who oversees $1.5 billion as chief investment officer of the Leuthold Group, holds no energy, consumer staples, utilities, or telecom stocks. But he does have about a third of his portfolio in tech, and is considering raising his allocation. If that sounds like bubble ¬behavior, consider that technology is still among the cheaper sectors, relative to historical valuations. It trades at 19 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, only a 4% premium to the S&P 500. That’s compared with the height of the dotcom boom, when tech valuations were 121% above the S&P 500 average. “There’s nothing like that today,” says Ramsey.

Tech is also one of the sectors where analysts expect to see the greatest earnings growth in 2018. Larry Puglia, whose T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund has trounced the S&P 500 with annualized returns of 18.5% over the past five years (and 37% in 2017 alone), says that some of the same companies he avoided around the turn of the millennium are now among the biggest holdings in his portfolio, including Amazon (AMZN, +0.66%), Alphabet (GOOGL, +1.20%), and Microsoft (MSFT, -0.35%). (Facebook (FB, +2.38%), which came a generation later, is his No. 2 position.) One draw for Puglia: The switch to subscription pricing that has accompanied their growth. “Many of the technology business models have become more necessary and durable over time,” adds Puglia.

Can Main Street investors responsibly bet the bulk of their savings on such high-growth technology companies? Investors are finding that a more fluid definition of that category helps when crafting a market-beating portfolio. “Tech isn’t even its own stand-alone sector, because it has tentacles into all the other industries,” says Koch, ticking off its impact in retail (e-commerce), automotive (self-driving cars), banking (mobile payments), health care (big-data genomics), and more. Put another way: What isn’t a tech stock these days? “There are going to be very, very big supertrends happening,” Koch says, “but you need to be invested well outside the tech sector to get exposure to all of this, and maybe also outside the U.S.”

With that in mind, we talked with top money managers who helped us build a portfolio that’s 100% invested in technology—defined broadly—while still broadly diversified.

A version of this article appears in the Dec. 15, 2017 issue of Fortune with the headline “Investor’s Guide 2018 Stocks and Funds: The All-Tech Portfolio.”

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