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特斯拉公布三季营收,马斯克面临三大挑战

Kirsten Korosce 2017年11月06日

Model 3的产能问题不仅仅是自动化的问题,也有资金和工人的问题。

上周三股市收盘后,特斯拉公司将公布今年第三季度财报。CEO伊隆·马斯克可能会谈及年终销量目标,以及位于内华达州雷诺市的大型电池工厂的建设情况,还有可能谈及公司在波多黎各等地建设的能源存储和太阳能项目等。

然而大家最关心的还是Model 3车型的量产。特别特斯拉计划怎样提高该车型的产能,以及怎样避免上次提升产能时犯的种种错误——比如去年特斯拉为了满足Model X的产能目标,曾直接导致了劳资纠纷的出现和工伤率的上升。

特斯拉的产能问题在10月初就已经暴露出来了。据该公司称,今年三季度,该公司仅生产了260辆Model 3电动汽车,交并付了其中的220辆。这意味着特斯拉和马斯克已经食言了。马斯克个人曾表示,他预计今年8月Model 3的产量大约在100辆左右,而9月就将达到1,500辆以上。

几天后,《华尔街日报》援引匿名人士消息称,直到今年9月,Model 3的一些主要部件还是由手工制造的,而不是自动生产线的产品。

据奥本海默公司(Oppenheimer & Co)十月中旬称,Model 3的产能问题主要是由于少数供应商没能按时供应零部件造成的。奥本海默公司还表示,其中至少一家供应商已经被特斯拉炒了鱿鱼。不过也有人对这种说法表示质疑,认为产能问题出在特斯拉自己身上。

Model 3的产能问题不仅仅是自动化的问题,也有资金和工人的问题。在周三的收益电话会议上,马斯克估计会被专门问到这两个方面。现金流的问题更是尤其重要。

据瑞银分析师科林·兰根称,今年第二季度,特斯拉已经烧掉了12亿美元现金。然后它通过发债又融到了18亿美元,目前特斯拉手里的现金约有50亿左右。

据巴克莱银行预计,今年三季度,特斯拉大概花掉了16亿美元左右的现金,基本上将该公司最近靠发债借来的18亿美元和SolarCity公司的现金流抵消了。

当然,除了Model 3以外,特斯拉还有其他一些问题,特别是“增强版Autopilot”功能什么时候能有像前一代的Autopilot 1一样的功能呢?消费者要为“增强版Autopilot”多花5000美元,它提供了一些高级驾驶员辅助功能,不过有人也把它称为“半自动”。它能让特斯拉车型保持在车道内行进,并且根据交通情况调整车速,以及自动变道等等,这些功能可以在驾驶员不介入的情况下自动完成。

但是如果消费者想要完全版的自动驾驶功能,就要额外再掏3000美元了。而且巴克莱银行分析师布莱恩·约翰逊也在本周二的一份研究纪要中指出,不少特斯拉的粉丝已经意识到,目前在媒体中还看不到任何迹象表明完全版的自动驾驶功能何时能正式面世。

最后,让我们回顾一下今年二季度特斯拉财报的看点。

• 特斯拉当季收益上涨,超过华尔街预期;高端全电动车型Model S和SUV车型Model X的出货量也呈上涨态势。

• 特斯拉的股东净损失从一年前的2.932亿美元上涨到3.364亿美元。如果按每股计算,则由2.09美元缩窄到2.04美元。

• 当季营收从一季度的27亿美元上涨至27.9亿美元,超过了分析师25.1亿美元的平均预期。

• 营收入较2016年同期的12.7亿美元上涨近一倍。(财富中文网)

译者:贾政景

Tesla reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the market closes. Tesla CEO Elon Musk will likely talk about year-end delivery goals, the company’s massive battery factory in near Reno, Nevada, maybe even its energy storage and solar efforts in places like Puerto Rico.

But all anyone really cares about is Model 3 production. Specifically, what it will take to get more of these mass-market electric cars off the line and into customers’ driveways and the company’s strategy to avoid the same mistakes it made during previous vehicle production ramp ups. For instance, labor unrest and a rise in worker injuries emerged in 2016 as a direct result of Tesla trying to meet ambitious production targets it set for the Model X sport utility vehicle.

Tesla’s production problems were revealed in early October when the automaker reported it had produced just 260 of its new Model 3 electric cars in the third quarter, of which it delivered 220. It was a dramatic miss for Tesla and Musk, who personally predicted that the company would produce about 100 Model 3 cars in August and more than 1,500 in September.

Days later the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, published a damning report that as recently as September major portions of the Model 3 were being built by hand, not an automated production line.

Tesla’s Model 3 production problems stem from a small number of suppliers that have failed to deliver on time, according to Oppenheimer & Co., which issued an analyst note in mid-October. The note said at at least one of those suppliers has been fired. However, some dispute those claims, noting that Tesla was to blame.

Ramping up Model 3 production is not just an automation conundrum. It’s a money and labor problem as well. Expect Musk to be asked specifically about these two areas during the earnings call Wednesday. The cash outlook question will be particularly important.

Tesla burned through about $1.2 billion in cash in the second quarter. Then it sought to raise some $1.8 billion through a bond offering, leaving it with about $5 billion or so in cash, says UBS analyst Colin Langan.

Barclays expects Tesla will report it burned through $1.6 billion in the third quarter, numbers offset by its recent $1.8 billion debt raise and likely sale of SolarCity project cash flows.

There are of course, other issues and questions beyond Model 3, notably when will Tesla’s “enhanced Autopilot” feature have the same capabilities as its previous generation Autopilot 1 version? Tesla charges $5,000 for enhanced Autopilot, which provides several advanced driver assistance features that when combined provides what some describe as “semi-autonomous” capabilities. It’s supposed to allow Tesla vehicles to drive keep within a lane, match speed to traffic conditions, and automatically change lanes without requiring help from the driver.

Tesla charges another $3,000 for full self-driving capability, and there are no signs of that coming anytime soon, ” – a point recognized now by some of Tesla’s fans in the media,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said in a research note Tuesday.

As a refresher, here’s a snapshot of Tesla’s second quarter earningsended June 30.

• Tesla’s quarterly revenue expanded and beat Wall Street’s estimates, as deliveries of its high-end all-electric Model S sedans and sports utility vehicle Model X grew.

• Tesla’s net losses attributable to shareholders widened to $336.4 million from $293.2 million a year earlier. On a per share basis, net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to $2.04 from $2.09.

• Revenue rose to $2.79 billion from $2.7 billion in the first quarter, beating analysts’ average estimate of $2.51 billion.

• Revenue was more than double the $1.27 billion Tesla earned during the same quarter in 2016.

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