2016年《财富》500强7大领涨股

在这个标普500指数大涨10%的年份，《财富》500强公司的回报率要远远超过前者——本文中各只股票的价格在2016年都至少翻了一番，前两名的涨幅更是超过300%。

不过，这些股票中没有高成长型科技公司的身影。2016年，大多数领涨股都来自困难重重而且默默无闻的行业，这些公司也只是刚刚崭露头角。其中三只钢铁股在唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选后开始走强，原因是人们期待着出现一阵基础设施开支热潮。

同时，虽然从定义上讲《财富》500强公司是美国收入规模最大的企业，但今年的领涨股都不是这方面的执牛耳者。实际上，在十大表现最好的个股中，有六只来自《财富》500强的后250名。

尽管它们也许不再是失败者，但多只领涨股的价格仍远低于历史最高点，甚至有一些看起来依然便宜。因此，如果在2016年错过了获得逾三倍回报的机会，这些股票中的某几只也许会在2017年进一步上扬。

以下是2016年《财富》500强中涨幅最大的股票。

1. AK钢铁控股公司

《财富》500强排名：383位

2016年回报率：359%

In a year when the S&P 500 has gained a solid 10%, these Fortune 500 companies ran circles around that return: All of the stocks on this list at least doubled their share prices in 2016, and the top two winners each more than quadrupled.

Still, you won’t find any high-growth tech companies on this list. Most of this year's big winners come from unsexy industries beset by struggles from which these firms are just starting to emerge. Three are steel companies whose stocks took off after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, prompting hopes of a wave of new spending on infrastructure.

Also, although Fortune 500 members are, by definition, the largest companies in the U.S. by revenue, none of this year's top gainers was among the very biggest of the big. Indeed, six of the top 10 performers come from the bottom half of the 500 list.

Even though they may no longer be underdogs, the stocks of many of 2016’s best performers remain well below their all-time highs, and several still look cheap. So even if you missed out on a four-bagger return this year, there may be more rallies to come for some of these stocks in 2017.

Here's the full list of 2016’s biggest Fortune 500 stock winners.

1. AK Steel Holding

Fortune 500 rank: No. 383

2016 return: 359%

受中国建材需求放缓影响，2015年铁矿石和钢材价格暴跌。但在2016年初触底后，二者均强劲反弹。近几年的亏损过后，AK钢铁控股预计将在2016年扭亏为盈，原因是它不断削减成本，而且还受益于产品价格上涨。

不过，这只股票的最大一波行情出现在特朗普当选之后——11月8日以来，AK钢铁控股的涨幅已经超过74%。特朗普政府不仅有可能为更多依赖钢材等重金属的基础设施项目开绿灯，这位当选总统还表示，他将实施的贸易政策将让天平向美国生产商倾斜，同时会削弱进口钢材的吸引力。对了，特朗普提名威尔伯格·罗斯出任商务部长同样是件好事——罗斯是一家主要钢铁公司的创始人以及前首席执行官。

摩根大通分析师写道：“特朗普对贸易乃至国内钢铁供应和价格的影响要比他的基础设施规划快得多，也重大得多。”他们对AK钢铁控股的评级为“超配”（也就是“买入”）。

2. 美国钢铁公司

《财富》500强排名：244位

2016年回报率：332%

Iron ore and steel prices fell precipitously in 2015 on slowing demand for construction material in China. But they bounced back forcefully after hitting bottom in early 2016, as steel producers cut production dramatically. After several years of losses, AK Steel (aks) is expected to turn a profit in 2016, as the company continued to cut costs while also benefiting from higher prices.

Still, the steepest jump in AK Steel’s stock price came after Trump won the election: AK’s shares are up more than 74% since Nov. 8. Not only is the Trump administration likely to green-light more infrastructure projects that will rely on heavy materials such as steel, the President-elect has signaled that he will enact trade policies that make imported steel less attractive while tipping the scales toward U.S. producers. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Trump’s nominee for secretary of commerce is Wilbur Ross, the founder and former CEO of a major steel company.

“Trump’s impact on trade and therefore domestic steel supply and prices could be much quicker and more meaningful than Trump’s infrastructure plans,” write J.P. Morgan analysts, who rate AK Steel "overweight" (that is, a buy).

2.United States Steel

Fortune 500 rank: No. 244

2016 return: 332%

和AK钢铁控股一样，2016年美国钢铁的股价随着钢材价格上涨而飙升，特朗普当选后进一步加速上扬（大选以来的涨幅超过70%）。和AK钢铁控股等规模较小的同类企业相比，美国钢铁削减成本的空间可没那么大。摩根大通认为，这让它对钢材价格极度敏感，也让它有望成为钢材市场复苏的最大受益者。由于中国钢材进口量不断下降以及美国国内产量受到控制，钢材价格有可能继续上涨，从而进一步推动美国钢铁走强。

3.航星

《财富》500强排名：281位

2016年回报率：236%

Like AK Steel's shares, United States Steel (x) stock surged this year as steel prices rose, then accelerated further after Trump’s victory (gaining more than 70% since the election). U.S. Steel doesn’t have quite as much leeway to cut costs as smaller peers like AK. That makes it extremely sensitive to steel prices—and also makes it the American steel stock that could benefit the most from a recovery in that market, according to J.P. Morgan. As the amount of steel imported from China continues to decline and domestic production stays in check, the price of the metal will likely keep going up—sending U.S. Steel even higher.

3. Navistar International

Fortune 500 rank: No. 281

2016 return: 236%

2016年航星上涨了两倍多，几乎（但没有完全）弥补了2015年下跌74%的糟糕表现。作为柴油发动机和卡车制造商，航星在几年前错误地选择了发展方向并付出了沉重代价——为达到美国环保署的新标准，该公司试图自行开发减排系统，但以失败告终。2016年3月，为了和美国证监会和解，航星被迫支付750万美元。前者指控航星在减排技术能力方面误导股东。

虽然证监会结束调查为航星的股价打开了上升空间，但这只股票在美国劳动节过后才迎来转折点——“排放门”（比航星的问题严重得多）丑闻缠身的大众宣布将收购航星近17%的股份。这条消息让航星在一天内蹿升了41%。该公司其他投资者还包括行事高调的维权股东卡尔·伊坎。

4. 房利美和房地美

《财富》500强排名：16位（房利美）和43位（房地美）

2016年回报率：140%（房利美）和136%（房地美）

This year’s rally in Navistar’s stock—which more than tripled in 2016—has almost (but not quite) made up for its terrible 2015, when the shares fell 74%. Navistar (nav), which makes diesel engines and trucks, took a costly wrong turn a few years ago when it tried and failed to develop its own emissions-reducing system to meet new Environmental Protection Agency standards. In March, it had to pay $7.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that it misled shareholders about its technology’s capability to cut emissions.

While the end of that investigation popped the lid off Navistar’s stock price, the tipping point came just after Labor Day, when Volkswagen—a company that faced its own (much larger) emissions scandal—announced it was taking a nearly 17% stake in the company. Navistar’s shares surged 41% in a single day on the news. Other investors in the company include high-profile activist Carl Icahn.

4. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fortune 500 rank: No. 16 (Fannie Mae) and No. 43 (Freddie Mac)

2016 return: 140% (Fannie Mae) and 136% (Freddie Mac)

我们把这两只股票放在一起是因为它们的业务、近期走势以及短期前景几乎一模一样。

美国总统大选前，两房的股价在2016年可谓波澜不惊。但特朗普获胜后局势骤然改变——11月8日投票以来两只股票都上涨了一倍以上。

原因相当简单——特朗普提名曾在高盛任职的史蒂芬·姆钦担任财政部长意味着两房的私有化。金融危机期间，这两家抵押贷款公司接受了巨额政府援助，随后一直在政府控制之下。这样的结果和几年前的预期有着天壤之别，当时两房的股价只有几美分，原因是美国政府表示最终会彻底关闭这两家公司。对数量不断上升的对冲基金投机者来说，这两家半官方机构的私有化也将是极大的利好。这些投机者在两房都有投资，而且一直宣称政府允许它们保留了过多的利润。

大衰退以来两房急剧波动有什么依据吗？它们是2013年《财富》500强中表现最好的股票，回报率均超过1000%，但2014年就成了表现最差的个股。

5. Oneok燃气公司

《财富》500强排名：348位

2016年回报率：135.6%

We've lumped these two stocks together here because their businesses, their recent stock performance and their near-term outlooks are close to identical.

Prior to the presidential election, Fannie's and Freddie’s share prices were pretty much flat for 2016. But that all changed when Trump won the White House: Both Fannie Mae (fnma) and Freddie Mac (fmcc) stock have more than doubled since the Nov. 8 vote.

The reason is fairly straightforward: Trump’s treasury secretary pick, former Goldman Sachs banker Steven Mnuchin, suggested privatizing Fannie and Freddie, which have been under government control since the mortgage lenders received a giant bailout during the financial crisis. That outcome would be a far cry from what was expected just a few years ago, when Fannie and Freddie’s shares were worth just pennies as the government indicated that it would eventually phase them out entirely. Privatizing the quasi-governmental companies would also a huge boon to a growing contingent of hedge fund speculators, who have invested in the pair and advocated that the government allow the companies to keep more of their own profits.

One indication of Fannie and Freddie’s wild ride since the Great Recession? They were the top two best-performing Fortune 500 stocks in 2013, returning more than 1000% each, only to land on the list of worst performers the following year.

5.Oneok

Fortune 500 rank: No. 348

2016 return: 135.6%

几年前天然气价格开始随油价下跌时这家总部设在俄克拉荷马州的天然气生产和管道公司陷入了困境——2015年Oneok的股价下跌了46%。但随着2016年天然气价格飙升，该公司股价上涨了一倍多，但还没有回到2014年夏天的最高点。

6. Freeport-McMoRan公司

《财富》500强排名：175位

2016年回报率：106%

An Oklahoma-based natural gas production and pipeline company, Oneok (oke) struggled when that commodity’s price fell along with oil prices starting a couple of years ago: Oneok stock was down 46% in 2015. But as natural gas prices surged this year, Oneok’s shares more than doubled. Still, they have yet to recover to where they were trading at their peak in the summer of 2014.

6. Freeport-McMoRan

Fortune 500 rank: No. 175

2016 return: 106%

经历了五年的熊市后，金、银、铜等贵金属的价格在2016年上扬，原因是供给更为接近需求。特朗普当选后，投资者认为作为建材的铜将成为特朗普政府预期基础设施项目的基础，从而进一步支撑了铜价。

Freeport-McMoRan这几年一直受不利因素影响，特别是将业务延伸至石油领域的决定——由于油价暴跌，实际情况证明它实在是选错了时间。2016年该公司转让了部分能源业务，并借此偿还了一些债务。不过，它的石油业务仍有相当的规模，如果油价继续上涨，该公司将从中受益。

7. Steel Dynamics公司

《财富》500强排名：356位

2016年回报率：100%

After a five-year bear market in precious metals including gold, silver and copper—all of which Freeport-McMoRan (fcx) produces at its mines—the prices of those commodities rallied in 2016 as supply came down closer in line with demand. Trump’s election win gave copper an additional kick, with investors believing that his administration’s expected infrastructure projects will need to rely on that building material.

Freeport had suffered particularly in recent years from its decision to diversify into the oil business—at what turned out to be exactly the wrong time, as prices plummeted. It sold off some of its energy business this year, relieving it of some of the debt it had taken on in the process. Still, Freeport maintains substantial operations in that area that will benefit if oil prices continue to rise.

7.Steel Dynamics

Fortune 500 rank: No. 356

2016 return: 100%

和本文提到的AK钢铁控股和美国钢铁不同，2015年钢材价格下跌基本没有给Steel Dynamics带来不利影响——当年该公司股价仅下跌7%左右，而且还处于盈利状态，并创造了大量自由现金流。不过，2016年钢材价格上涨同样大幅提升了该公司股价。同时，Steel Dynamics的位置特别有利，将从钢材需求的增长中获利，原因是2008年金融危机以来该公司极大地提高了产能。(财富中文网)

作者：Jen wieczner

译者：Charlie

审校：詹妮

Unlike its fellow steelmakers on this list—AK Steel and United States Steel—Steel Dynamics (stld) managed to ride out steel's 2015 price downturn relatively unscathed: Its stock price only shed about 7% last year. The company also stayed profitable, generating hefty free cash flow.

Still, Steel Dynamics still got a major boost from rising prices this year. And it's particularly well positioned to profit from increasing demand for steel, as the company has greatly expanded the amount it can produce since the 2008 financial crisis.