穆迪警告称，这两种面值的货币突然停止流动，可能会带来短暂的痛苦，而事实也确实如此： 印度不止没有准备好新面值的钞票，国内为数不多的ATM机也没有做好准备。这些机器需要经过重新配置，才能处理新钞。由于数以百万计的印度人要在银行排队等待数天时间（甚至有报道称，有数十人因为排队死亡），导致国内经济完全陷入了停滞。现金短缺导致其他人选择了以物易物，而高盛（Goldman Sachs）将印度2017年的GDP预期下调了1.5%。
The same night that Donald Trump stunned pundits and became America’s President-elect, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped a bomb of his own: At midnight, his country’s 500- and 1,000-rupee notes would become “worthless little slips of paper.” He was taking those notes (worth about $7.37 and $14.74, respectively), amounting to 86% of India’s currency, out of circulation. Indians were given until Dec. 30 to swap their old bills for new ones.
Modi warned that the surprise demonetization might involve short-term pain, and it has: The new bills weren’t ready, nor were the nation’s few ATMs, which had to be reconfigured to distribute them. The economy all but ground to a halt as millions spent their days waiting in bank lines (dozens, according to reports, died doing so). The cash crunch has led others to resort to bartering, and Goldman Sachs has shaved 1.5% from its 2017 GDP forecast for India.
Many are skeptical the scheme will achieve its original aim—eradicating the untaxed “black money” that fuels corruption. But there’s another likely benefit: 90% of transactions in India involve cash, and the lack of it has boosted alternatives. Bitcoin and digital payment use have surged (fewer than 2% of Indians have credit cards). India may be on the way to a more efficient, cashless economy—it’s just going to be a bumpy ride.