苹果股价即将迎来暴涨？

    过去一个月，苹果公司的股价遭遇重创，但随着新款iPhone手机的预定量即将打破去年的1000万台记录，苹果的股价趋势也将迎来新的变化。2015年9月15日，苹果公司股价的收盘价达到每股116.28美元，而且除了暂时性的震荡之外，这一稳定增长的趋势很有可能继续下去。即便有报道称苹果将推迟发布Apple Watch的新操作系统，以修补系统漏洞，但这一消息不会对公司股票造成太大影响。

    尽管市场对苹果新款手机的前景表示担忧，但iPhone 6S还是成功累积了稳定的预定量，其中也包括来自苹果第二大市场——中国市场的大量订单。讽刺的是，对中国经济的担忧，恰恰是过去几个月导致苹果公司股价下跌的主要因素，由此看来，市场的担忧有过虑之嫌。

    更重要的是，新iPhone手机销售的火爆，意味着这款设备的受欢迎程度并未减退。有分析师担心iPhone手机的销量已经达到了顶峰，这是因为他们忽视了苹果产品的粘性。瑞银集团分析师在2014年进行的一项分析显示，相比其他业内领先的科技公司，苹果庞大的生态系统具有更高的用户粘性。

    例如，iPhone用户有可能同时使用MacBook或iPad，这些产品通过一个通用的操作系统可以与手机无缝整合。而其他设备却与iPhone手机不兼容或更难同步。据IDC统计，新Apple Watch的销量也呈现出上升趋势，而这也需要与iPhone配套使用。

    对于消费者而言，这意味着放弃使用iPhone选择其他手机，不仅价格昂贵，而且会带来诸多不便。除非有竞争对手生产出一款比iPhone手机更优秀的革命性产品，否则的话，消费者，尤其是同时使用其他苹果设备的消费者，没有理由更换手机品牌。

    2015年第二季度，在智能手机总体销量增长速度下降的情况下，苹果相对于其主要竞争对手三星公司的市场份额持续增加，苹果的巨大优势由此可见一斑。据高德纳统计，苹果的市场份额从一年前的12.2%增加到14.6%，而三星的市场份额却从26.2%下降到21.9%。

    此外，苹果iPhone手机销量增长的另外一个重要推动力，来自之前手机的更新换代，因此新的以旧换新选择应该对销量增长有巨大的推动作用。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司已计划为消费者提供更灵活的以旧换新方案。《华尔街日报》报道称，约1490万美国消费者有资格在今年年底更换新机，在2014年iPhone 6发布的时候，这一数字为530万人。

    此外，苹果也将为购买者提供新的购买方案，允许iPhone用户按月分期付款，每年还可以免费升级到新款手机，并有权选择新的运营商。这与无线运营商提供的方案没有太大区别，只不过苹果公司提供的方案并不便宜，但无论如何，这些方案必能加强iPhone手机的前景。因为购买长期合约的用户需要接受特定运营商许多年的约束，这令他们很是失望。

    此次苹果还推出了面向商业应用的尺寸更大、功能更强的iPad Pro和下一代Apple TV，这些产品也会增加公司的收入，而且苹果肯定正在开发其他有趣的产品，但在未来几个月，新iPhone手机必将成为市场关注的焦点。到目前为止，一切似乎都很顺利。苹果公司的股票肯定会上涨。

    涨幅会有多大？我们无法预测，但在2014年第4季度iPhone 6的季度销量公布之后，苹果的股价涨幅超过20%，这或许能够为我们提供一些参考。

    本文作者S.库玛尔是一位科技和商业评论员。他曾在科技、媒体和电信投资银行工作。他未持有苹果公司或本文提到的其他公司的股票。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    审校：任文科

    Apple’s stock has taken quite a beating during the past month, but that tide is likely about to shift as preorders for the new iPhone are on pace to beat last year’s 10 million record. As of the market close on September 15, 2015, the stock was up to $116.28 per share and this steady climb will likely continue except for temporary blips. Even news that Apple is delaying its new operating system for the Apple Watch to fix some bugs is unlikely to hurt the stock much.

    Despite market worries to the contrary, Apple AAPL 0.11% has racked up solid preorders for the iPhone 6S. This includes robust orders in China as well, Apple’s second largest market. Concerns about China’s economy, ironically, were a major factor in the company’s stock price plunge of the last few months, so it seems that the market’s fears were premature.

    More importantly, the strong start to the new iPhone’s sales indicates that the popularity of the device has not waned. Analysts who worry whether the iPhone has peaked are ignoring the stickiness factor for Apple products. The vast ecosystem that Apple has created is stickier than for most other leading tech companies, a 2014 analysis done by UBS analysts showed.

    iPhone owners, for example, are likely to use MacBooks or iPads, which integrate seamlessly with their phone through a common operating system, rather than alternate devices which may be incompatible or more difficult to sync. The new Apple Watch, whose sales are trending up according to IDC, also requires the iPhone.

    What this means is that switching from the iPhone can be expensive and inconvenient for consumers. Unless a competitor produces a game-changing device that is substantially better than the iPhone, there is little motivation for consumers, especially those who use other Apple devices, to switch.

    As proof of Apple’s superiority, its market share in the second quarter of 2015 rose in comparison to its leading competitor, Samsung (although the growth rate for total smartphone sales declined). Apple’s market share rose to 14.6% from 12.2% a year ago, while Samsung’s declined to 21.9% from 26.2%, according to Gartner research.

    In addition, Apple’s iPhone sales are driven heavily by the replacement of previous phones, so the new upgrade options available should help that process along considerably. Companies like Verizon VZ -0.39% and AT&T T 0.46% are now offering plans that give consumers more flexibility; about 14.9 million U.S. customers will be eligible for upgrades at the end of this year, which is a big leap from 5.3 million in 2014 when the iPhone 6 launched, The Wall Street Journal notes.

    Then of course there is the new financing plan that Apple itself will now offer buyers, which allows iPhone owners to pay for the phone in monthly installments and upgrade to the new model every year for free and pick a new carrier. It’s not very different from what the wireless carriers are offering and Apple’s plan isn’t cheap, but in any case, it should bolster the iPhone’s prospects due to the frustration users have felt for years about being tied down to specific carriers on long-term contracts.

    Even though the larger and more powerful iPad Pro targeted at businesses and the next generation Apple TV could also boost Apple’s fortunes, and the company doubtlessly has other interesting products in the works, the story in the coming months will be all about the iPhone. And, so far at least, it seems like a good story. Expect the stock to pop.

    By how much? It’s impossible to know for sure but if the stock market response to the first full quarter of sales for the iPhone 6 is any guide, Apple shares went up by more than 20% in the month after Q4 2014 numbers were released.

    S. Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of Apple or other companies mentioned in this article.