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最新报告:预计中国经济增速2020年将放缓至4%

Laura Lorenzeti 2014年10月22日

一份新报告预计,中国经济的下滑速度将远远超过预期,到2020年中国经济增速将下滑至4%。

    商业研究机构世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)周一发布报告预计,今后6年中国经济将在“软滑坡”过程中不断减速。如果中国领导人未能采取行动落实商业友好改革措施,到2020年中国的经济增速或将下滑至4%。

    一直以来,中国官方预测经济增速将下滑到8%左右,并称之为“软着陆”。但世界大型企业联合会在上述报告中指出,今后中国的经济形势会远不如夕,尤其是如果政府无法通过一些紧迫手段重塑经济。

    报告的合著者、该联合会中国经济和商业中心(China Center for Economics and Business)董事总经理大卫•霍夫曼称:“中国在过去15年来获得的巨大成功是基于历史上很独特的一种发展模式。但这种发展方式的特点是由政府着力指挥资本流向,货币政策旨在促增长,但这同时带来了深层次的风险和失衡问题。在中国的经济增长过程中,总是潜藏着减速的可能性,而且减速过程至少会和加速过程一样快。我们发现,现在已经出现这种转变的迹象了。”

    增速下滑可能影响本已疲弱的经济复苏过程。但报告指出,在华经营的跨国公司将因此受益。经济放缓时期这些跨国公司将有更多的人才可以挑选,而且中国领导人可能对在华经营的外国公司持更加开放的态度。由此可能出现更多收购中国公司的机会,这对打算进一步在华投资的跨国企业而言是个福音。

    这份报告预测中国经济增速将迅速从诸多政府官员的预期水平下滑,但更为缓慢的增长不会扭转中国经济的前进势头。经济减速并不意味着危机,报告的另一位合著者、该联合会经济学家安德鲁•波尔克认为,4%的增长率“仍代表着巨大的机遇。”

    他也同时指出:“但是,中国已经到了一个十字路口。政府以及外国投资者都必须承认是时候进行结构性经济调整了。在政府主导和信贷推动之下,中国经济实现了举世瞩目的成就,现在要转向更可持续并以消费为中心的增长模式,这将是一个长期而危险的过程,近期会带来许多阵痛。”

    在2011年之前的30年中,中国的年均经济增速为10.2%。二战之后中国的经济增速无可匹敌,这也使中国成为国际社会中的重要一员。最近,中国的年均增长速度开始放慢,今年政府设定的增长目标为7.5%。

    其他经济监管机构也预计中国经济将减速,只是幅度要小得多。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,在2016年的某个时刻,中国经济增长率会降至6.5%。世界银行(World Bank)则预计,2016年中国经济增速将下滑到7.1%。(财富中文网)

    China’s economic growth is expected to continually decline over the next six years in a “soft fall” to an annual rate of 4% by 2020 — at least if the nation’s leaders fail to take action to implement business-friendly reforms, according to a report by the Conference Board.

    Chinese officials have been forecasting a drop in economic growth to about 8% per year in what they labeled a “soft landing.” A report released Monday by business-research group the Conference Board, however, says the future economic picture is much more muted, especially if leaders don’t pass stringent measures to remake the economy.

    “China’s remarkable success, over the last 15 years, in particular, was built on a historically unique development model,” said David Hoffman, a co-author of the report and the managing director of the Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business. “But the hallmarks of this approach — substantial state direction of capital and growth-fixated monetary policy — also generated deep-seated risks and imbalances. The course of China’s growth has always harbored the potential for deceleration at least as rapid as its acceleration. We are beginning to see the signs of this transformation take hold.”

    The drop in growth would hinder an already fragile recovery, though such a steep decline would be a boon to multinational firms doing business in the country. Slow growth would provide a better pool of workers from which to hire the most talented employees, and Chinese leaders would be more open to foreign businesses operating locally, according to the report. That could open up more opportunities to acquire Chinese companies, a benefit for multinationals looking to invest further in the country.

    While China’s growth is expected to rapidly decline from what many officials have predicted, the slower growth won’t reverse the generation of progress. The slowdown doesn’t imply a crisis: 4% growth “still represents a huge and dynamic opportunity,” said Andrew Polk, a Conference Board economist who co-authored the report.

    “But China stands at a crossroads: The government and foreign investors alike must be honest in acknowledging the time has come for structural economic adjustment,” he said. “Transitioning away from the state-driven, credit-fueled boom that has amazed the world, toward a more sustainable, consumption-centric model will be a long and perilous process that causes much near-term pain.”

    Over 30 years through 2011, China posted an average annual growth rate of 10.2%. That growth rate was unmatched by any nation in the post-World War II era and helped transform the country into a major world player. China’s annual growth has recently slowed and the country is aiming for a 7.5% growth target this year.

    Other economic watchdogs also expect the Chinese economy to slow down, albeit at a much more modest pace. The International Monetary Fund anticipated China’s growth will hit 6.5% sometime in 2016. The World Bank expects China’s growth to slow to 7.1% in 2016.

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