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投资理财

阿里的收购野心及其背后的风险

Sanjay Sanghoee 2014年09月18日

就在阿里巴巴即将上市并矢志成为下一个大型科技企业集团的档口,投资者需认真考虑这一野心背后的风险。

    另外,还存在这样的风险:某一项收购可能与公司其他业务无法很好地融合,需要阿里巴巴拥有适当的经验与资源将此业务单独运营,实现盈利。财捷集团(Intuit)就是个例子,这家税务软件公司的业务看起来与阿里巴巴的核心平台并不匹配,但据说它也是阿里巴巴看中的几家公司之一。

    像谷歌和Facebook这样的公司表现非常出色,但很难讲这其中有多少是得益于核心业务的有机成长,有多少是源于收购技术产生的协同效应。科技大型企业集团模式仍在发展初期阶段,迫切等待阿里巴巴IPO的投资者必须谨记这一点。

    这家中国巨头可能是电子商务领域非常值得投资的企业,但如果它实施收购跨领域科技公司的计划,它将变成一家完全不同类型的公司,结果很难预料。这样的不确定性包含风险与机遇,但无论结果如何,都应该在开盘钟敲响之时计入公司股价。(财富中文网)

    Sanjay Sanghoee是一位政治和商业评论家。他曾在知名投行拉扎德(Lazard Freres)和德利佳华(Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein)就职,还曾为对冲基金Ramius效力。Sanghoee现任中端市场广播电台运营商戴维森媒体集团(Davidson Media Group)的董事。他拥有哥伦比亚商学院(Columbia Business School)的MBA学位,还著有两部惊险小说

    译者:早稻米

    There is also the risk that a particular acquisition may not integrate well with the rest of the company and would then require Alibaba to have the right expertise and resources to run profitably as a standalone line of business. A good example of this might be Intuit INTU 0.19% , a maker of tax software, whose business does not automatically seem to fit Alibaba’s core platform but which is one of the companies also rumored to be in Alibaba’s sights.

    Companies like Google and Facebook have performed extremely well but it is hard to tell how much of that success is attributable to organic growth in their core businesses and how much stems from the synergies realized through acquired technologies. The technology conglomerate model is still in its early days and investors waiting eagerly for Alibaba’s IPO should keep that in mind.

    The Chinese giant may well be a great investment in the e-commerce space, but if it does carry through on its plans to acquire several companies across the technology spectrum, it may morph into a different type of company altogether, and the results of that are difficult to predict. Such uncertainty contains both risk and promise, but whatever the outcome, it should certainly be priced into the stock when the opening bell rings.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. Sanghoee sits on the Board of Davidson Media Group, a mid-market radio station operator. He has an MBA from Columbia Business School and is also the author of two thriller novels. Follow him @sanghoee.

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