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4大迹象预示美国经济增长加速

4大迹象预示美国经济增长加速

Chris Matthews 2014-07-03
尽管上个季度美国的经济增长数据令人失望,但在人口结构、企业投资、政府层面以及就业市场等四个重要的方面仍然有一些值得乐观的积极迹象。

    3.美国政府将不再是阻碍:在经济衰退后的几年,华盛顿的争论围绕如何缩减金融危机以及随之而来的经济刺激政策造成的庞大预算赤字。但这个领域的要点难点已经基本解决:

    3. The government’s getting out of the way: In the years following the recession, the debate in Washington centered around how to shrink the large budget deficit caused by the financial crisis and subsequent stimulus efforts. But most of the heavy lifting in that area has been done:

    上图显示的是2004年至2012年间,美国联邦政府财政盈余或财政赤字与GDP之比的走势。

    去年美国联邦赤字下降到了GDP的4%,预计今年将降至3%以下。通常情况下,预算赤字占GDP的比例如果在与经济增长率相当的水平徘徊,就会被视为是可持续的。因此,至少在未来十年,美国国会受到的缩减开支压力会较小。如果不是最近几年华盛顿大力削减预算,美国经济的增速会快得多。

    The federal deficit declined to 4% of GDP last year, and it is projected to fall below 3% this year. Generally, a budget deficit that hovers around the level of economic growth is considered sustainable, so there will be less pressure for Congress to cut spending at least over the next decade. Absent the aggressive budget cutting we’ve seen from Washington in recent years, the economy should grow that much more.

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