现在是投资俄罗斯的时候吗？

    一些投资者以前觉得俄罗斯股票看起来便宜得不可思议，现在他们认为，前者几乎是无法抗拒的廉价证券。近几周，MSCI俄罗斯指数成分股的市盈率只有三、四倍——只是这也可能意味着这些公司的风险非常高，就算这样的折价水平也不能让它们蕴含的危险变得理所当然。

    达斯特现在是摩根士丹利的一名高级顾问，他说：“对我来说，这就像有人在大喊，如果你可以闭上眼睛，那就别再睁开了，几年以后你也许会有非常大的惊喜——也许，只是也许。”

    的确，固定收益投资公司DoubleLine新兴市场固定收益团队负责人兼该公司新兴市场固定收益基金（Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund）经理露丝•帕迪利亚说，俄罗斯债券看起来依然很好。西方对俄罗斯的制裁让市场感到恐惧时，帕迪利亚却把自己原本就已经重仓持有的俄罗斯债券仓位又提高了一个百分点。实际上，如果不是债券价格反弹得这么快，她还会进一步增持。她说：“当时的介入空间不是很大。”这只基金现在持有VTB和Sberbank等俄罗斯银行以及国有能源集团Gazprom发行的公司债。帕迪利亚指出，尽管以前政府的干预行动曾经毁了一些公司，但债券持有人的资金都能悉数收回。她说：“我们觉得，对俄罗斯要用另外一种思路，这可不是1998年的俄罗斯。”不过，对许多投资经理人来说，如果要他们现在就对俄罗斯投资，他们的回答更有可能是“没门”。

    2005-2006年，资产管理公司Artio Global Investors（后被Aberdeen Asset Management收购）前投资经理鲁道夫-里亚德•尤尼斯曾向大约50家俄罗斯和东欧公司投资了近160亿美元。最近，尤尼斯成立了资产管理公司R Squared Capital Management。他说：“我们曾经是俄罗斯最大的投资者，或者最大的投资者之一。”然而，几个月前他转让了手中的最后一批Sberbank股票——时间就在乌克兰危机升级之前——原因是他对这些公司的表现不满意。他指出：“它们对股东不像以前那么好了。如果情况从好变成不怎么好，或者从差变成更差，通常就不容易赚到钱。”

    截至目前，里亚德一直在观望，但他也一直密切关注着一些公司（他不愿透露都有哪些公司），特别是私营企业，而不是那些由俄罗斯政府控制的公司。里亚德说：“我们觉得（股价）现在已经大幅下跌，而且正在等待适当的切入点，以便在那里插上一脚，或者试试水。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Now, some investors who thought Russian stocks looked incredibly cheap before think they're practically irresistible bargains now. Companies in the MSCI Russia Index have traded as low as three or four times earnings in recent weeks -- though that could also mean that the companies are so risky, even the discounts don't justify the danger.

    "To me that is screaming, if you could close your eyes, and not look again, you might be very pleasantly surprised a few years from now -- maybe. Maybe," says Darst, now a senior advisor to Morgan Stanley (MS).

    Indeed, Luz Padilla, head of DoubleLine's emerging markets fixed-income group and manager of its Emerging Markets Fixed Income fund, says Russian bonds still look great. When Western sanctions against Putin scared the market, she increased her already significant Russian exposure by about one percentage point. In fact, she would have bought more, except prices bounced back so quickly "there wasn't much of a buying window," she says. The fund currently holds corporate bonds issued by Russian banks including VTB and Sberbank, and by state-controlled energy company Gazprom. Even when government interference has ruined companies in the past, Padilla adds, bondholders got paid in full. "Russia, for us, is a different calculus," she says. "This is not the Russia of 1998."

    Still, for many portfolio managers, the answer to investing in Russia right now sounds more like "hell no."

    Back in 2005 and 2006, Rudolph-Riad Younes, the former portfolio manager at Artio Global Investors (before it was sold to Aberdeen Asset Management) who has recently launched R Squared Capital Management, had invested nearly $16 billion in about 50 companies across Russia and Eastern Europe. "We were one of the largest, if not the largest investor in Russia," he says. But a few months ago, he sold the last of the shares he owned in Sberbank -- before the tensions in Ukraine escalated -- because he was not satisfied with how the companies were behaving. "They were getting less shareholder-friendly than before," he says. "When you go from good to less good, or bad to more bad, usually it's not a good time to make money."

    So for now, he's sitting on the sidelines, but he's keeping a close eye on a few names (he won't say which), especially private companies, as opposed to those controlled by the Russian state. "We feel like [the prices] have come down a lot, and we are waiting for the right entry point, to have a foot in the door, or a toe in the water," he says.