钻石有望接棒黄金成为投资新宠

    美国和新兴国家对钻石的需求正在持续增长。

    黄金已经失去了吸引力，至少作为一种投资而言已然如此。自从在2011年夏季上冲至每盎司1,900美元以来，黄金价格已经暴跌了30％。这次暴跌也促使以实物黄金为支持的交易所交易基金（ETF）出现资金外流。但现在投资者正在把目光投向另一种贵重物资——钻石。

    近几个月以来，围绕钻石有可能首次成为一种真正资产类别的兴奋情绪一直在逐渐增强。与黄金不同，钻石目前没有现货价格，而且除了珠宝商和当铺之外，也没有任何传统市场。著名的新兴市场投资者马克•墨比尔斯最近在接受财经网站《市场观察》（MarketWatch）的采访时表示，他已经走访了各大典当经销商，搜集钻石市场的第一手信息。他认为，钻石市场即将进入一轮牛市，而且最终可能会通过基金向投资者提供投资渠道。

    事实上，贝恩公司及其他机构一直在追踪调查投资者对钻石的兴趣，同时思考从投资方面来看钻石是否会成为下一个黄金或铂金。 2013年3月，一群对冲基金交易员成立了总部位于洛杉矶的钻石投资交易所（Investment Diamond Exchange）。在那里，投资者可以购买实物钻石（但无意把钻石加工成首饰）。然后在2013年9月，芝加哥一家名为GemShares的公司宣布与纳斯达克OMX集团合作，设立GemShares全球投资等级标准钻石一篮子指数（GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index）。这个指数可以用来创建一只完全以实物钻石为支持的交易所交易基金。

    正在推动钻石需求的一个意外因素是，中国对订婚钻戒相对而言新近形成、然而又急速增长的需求。当然，准新郎花花一大笔钱购买钻戒早已是美国人订婚程序的一项标准内容。但普信集团（T. Rowe Price）全球金属与矿业策略的投资组合经理里克•德•洛斯•雷耶斯说，就在几年前，它对中国人来说，基本上还是一个陌生的观念。不过，随着中国的财富增长，加上中国独生子女政策导致女性与男性的比例降低，中国女性已经找到了一位可以说是最好的新朋友。 雷耶斯说：“如果你是一名中国女性，而且想要一枚钻戒的话，那么你一定能找到一位愿意给你一枚钻戒的男人。中国的女人差不多掌握着全部的控制权。”

    同时，因为经济持续好转，美国的钻石需求同样也有所增加。市场研究公司拉帕波特集团（Rapaport Group）公布的数据显示，2013年美国进口了近230亿美元的成品钻石，与2012年相比增长了16％以上。这家公司自己设有的钻石价格指数显示，去年钻石的平均价格上涨了近14％，达到每克拉1,855美元。

    不过，一些分析师仍然怀疑，钻石投资是否能像购买黄金或其他贵金属那样简单可行。毕竟，黄金是按照盎司重量定价的，而钻石的定级不仅要根据它们的大小（即克拉重量），而且还取决于它们的切工、净度和色泽，甚至在一定程度上还取决于个人看法。贝恩最近发布的一份报告显示，这四个因素（即钻石的4C）存在多达1.6万种影响每枚钻石价格的组合，再加上一定程度的主观性，钻石价值鉴定差异的幅度最高可达30％。

    销售诸如金条和铂金条等实物资产的贵金属交易所APMEX首席执行官（CEO）迈克尔•海恩斯不清楚自己的客户是否会对钻石感兴趣。虽然海恩斯在鉴定和分级钻石方面拥有一定的经验，他本人甚至还拥有一些钻石，但他说钻石质量参差不齐，从而使得它们成为一种与金条完全不同的资产，而且以一种不同的理念吸引着投资者。他说： “我敢肯定，我们有喜欢购买石油、天然气和波音公司股票的金条买家，但我认为他们中间不会有很多人同时愿意购买钻石。”

    雷耶斯表示，进一步促使钻石市场复杂化的因素是，消费者的喜好会变化无常。比如，目前流行的是深褐色钻石。但前一轮热衷于粉色钻石的趋势最终自然而然地结束了，结果迫使市场在需求下降时做出相应调整。雷耶斯说：“如果钻石的价格在很大程度上只是基于时尚的话，大家怎样才能给作为投资产品的钻石定价呢？”

    虽然他对未来市场上出现钻石ETF的可能性颇感兴趣，但现在雷耶斯仍然将继续专注于矿业股，比如英国公司佩特拉钻石公司（这家公司的股票在伦敦挂牌交易，交易代码为PDL），而他效力的普信正是这家公司的大股东之一。（财富中文网）

    译者：陈玮/ iDo98

    Demand for diamonds is growing in the U.S. and the emerging world.

    Gold has lost its luster -- at least as an investment. Since hitting $1,900 an ounce in the summer of 2011, the price of the shiny metal has plunged some 30%. That fall has prompted an exodus from gold-backed ETFs. But now investors are setting their sights on another precious material: diamonds.

    Excitement has been building in recent months around the potential of diamonds to become a veritable asset class for the first time. Unlike gold, the gems currently have no spot price or conventional market besides jewelers and pawn shops. The renowned emerging markets investor Mark Mobius recently told MarketWatch that he has visited pawn resellers to get a firsthand view of the market for diamonds, which he believes are on the cusp of a boom, and which may eventually be available to investors via funds.

    Indeed, Bain & Company and other institutions have been tracking investors' interest in diamonds and pondering whether the jewel, in investment terms, could become the next gold or platinum. In March 2013, a group of hedge fund traders launched the Los Angeles-based Investment Diamond Exchange, where investors can buy physical diamonds (with no intention of making them into jewelry). And in September, a Chicago company called GemShares announced a partnership with the Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) to develop the GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index, which could be used to create an exchange traded fund backed entirely by real diamonds.

    One surprising factor that's driving demand is the relatively new but exploding appetite in China for diamond engagement rings. Prospective grooms splurging on a diamond is, of course, a standard part of the American engagement process. But it was largely a foreign concept to the Chinese until just a few years ago, says Rick de los Reyes, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price's Global Metals and Mining Strategy. As wealth in China has increased and the country's one-child policy has left the country with a smaller ratio of females to males, however, those women have discovered a new best friend, so to speak. "If you're a woman in China and you want a diamond ring, you can certainly find a man to get you one," says de los Reyes. "You're pretty much in the driver's seat."

    Diamond demand has increased in the U.S., too, thanks to the strengthening economy. The U.S. imported nearly $23 billion of polished diamonds in 2013, up more than 16% from 2012, according to the Rapaport Group, a market research firm that maintains its own index for diamond prices. According to that index, the average price of diamonds increased almost 14% to $1,855 per carat last year.

    Still, some analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of making investing in diamonds as simple as buying gold or other precious metals. After all, while gold is priced per ounce, diamonds are graded based not only on their size, but on their cut, clarity, and color -- and to a certain extent, the eye of the beholder. According to a recent report by Bain, there are up to 16,000 combinations of those four factors that influence the price of each stone, plus a degree of subjectivity, as value appraisals can differ by as much as 30%.

    Michael Haynes, the CEO of the precious metals exchange APMEX, which sells physical assets like gold and platinum bars, isn't sure his clients would even be interested in diamonds. While Haynes has experience authenticating and grading diamonds -- he even owns some himself -- he says the varying quality of diamonds makes them a different breed of asset than bullion, and attracts investors with a different philosophy. "I'm sure we have bullion buyers who like to buy oil and gas and Boeing stock, but I don't see a large overlap with diamond buyers," he says.

    Further complicating the diamond market, says de los Reyes, is that consumers' tastes can be fickle. Chocolate diamonds, for example, are popular right now. But a previous trend of pink diamonds eventually ran its course, forcing the market to adjust when demand dropped off. "How do you price that when a lot of it's just based on fashion?" de los Reyes says.

    While he's intrigued by the possibility of diamond ETFs in the future, for now, de los Reyes is sticking with mining stocks, like the British company Petra Diamonds (which trades in London under the ticker PDL), of which T. Rowe is one of the largest shareholders.