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2014年全球经济十大“意外”事件

2014年全球经济十大“意外”事件

Byron Wien 2014年01月08日
黑石集团副董事长拜伦•维恩从1986年开始,每年都会预测来年全球经济发展的意外事件。他认为,2014年的意外事件将包括,中国经济增速放缓到6%,而中国A股将继续维持低迷表现。

    1986年1月,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)投资策略分析师拜伦•维恩提出了来年的十大“意外”事件。现在,虽然已经成为黑石集团(Blackstone Group)咨询业务副董事长,他依然在坚持进行这样的预测。

    维恩对“意外”事件的定义是,普通投资者认为它们发生的可能性只有三分之一,而他相信这些事件很有可能出现(也就是说,可能性超过50%)。下面就是他列出的2014年十大“意外”事件。

    1. 套用狄更斯的说法,这是最好的市场,也是最坏的市场。最坏的局面将首先出现——地缘政治问题和极度乐观情绪将让美国市场出现10%以上的大幅度回调。随后将是最好的局面,美国市场将创下新高。到年底,标普500指数(Standard & Poor's 500)的总回报率将达到20%。

    2. 美国经济将最终走出低谷。增长率将超过3%,失业率将向6%滑落。实际情况将表明,美联储(Fed)削减资产购买规模无碍大局。

    3. 美国经济强于欧洲,日本将提高美元汇率。欧元/美元汇率将跌至1.25以下,美元/日元汇率将达到120。

    4. 迪克•切尼说出现赤字没有关系。各国领导人中只有安倍晋三认识到切尼是对的。安倍将继续积极进行财政和货币扩张,年初日经225指数(Nikkei 225)将升至18000点。但销售税的增长、人口老龄化以及劳动力不断减少最终将带来不利影响,下半年日本市场将暴跌(20%)。

    5. 三中全会提出中国要向内需型经济转变,同时降低对投资的依赖,这将使2014年中国经济增长率降至6%。A股市场在这一年的表现将再次让人感到失望。新一届领导班子会强调,他们的方针政策最符合中国的长远利益。

    6. 实际情况将继续表明,新兴市场投资变化无常。在墨西哥和韩国,强有力的政府和增长性政策将带动当地股市大幅上涨,但其他新兴市场将无法赶上墨西哥和韩国的脚步。

    7. 尽管美国石油产量上升,西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)的价格仍将超过110美元。和发达国家保守并且下降的石油消费量相比,发展中经济体的需求所产生的影响将继续超过前者。

    8. 生活水平提高以及新兴市场更多地以消费者为导向将扭转农产品价格下跌的局面。玉米、小麦和大豆的价格将分别达到5.25美元/蒲式耳、7.50美元/蒲式耳和16.00美元/蒲式耳。

    9. 美国经济表现强劲,再加上通胀水平有所提高,将使美国10年期国债收益率升至4.0%。短期利率将保持在零点附近。中期收益率上升将给房地产行业带来不利影响,但对美元来说是个有利因素。

    In January 1986, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Byron Wien published a list of 10 "surprises" for the upcoming year. He is now vice chairman of The Blackstone Group's (BX) advisory practice, but is still making predictions.

    For Wien,"surprises" are events that the average investor would only assign a one-out-of-three chance of taking place, but which he believes are "probable" (i.e., having a better than 50% likelihood of happening). What follows is his list of surprises for 2014.

    1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) approaches a 20% total return by year end.

    2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.

    3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.

    4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don't matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population, and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.

    5. China's Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.

    6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.

    7. In spite of increased U.S. production, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.

    8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.

    9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.

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