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风险投资人预测2014科技界8大走势

Sergio Monsalve 2014年01月07日

一位全球互联网行业风险投资人对2014年做出了展望,预测了科技行业的8个发展大趋势。其中,他认为,中国等金砖四国的互联网行业将再次迎来好年景。

    2013年,我们对科技/互联网行业的风险投资取得了成功。在此,我想谈谈对2014年的一些看法,比如全球互联网和移动行业的主要趋势、风投融资环境、主要的成长型新兴子行业以及公共市场。

    2014年八大预言:

    1. 移动业务将继续冲击互联网巨头:人们对移动互联网和电子商务的使用将加速,情况就连最乐观的预言者也会感到意外。举例来说,Facebook首席执行官马克•扎克伯格最近曾提到,该公司48%的日常活跃用户都通过移动设备登录Facebook。我相信,到2014年底这个数字将达到70%-75%。同时,我认为大多数移动设备用户及其增长将来自亚洲和拉美的发展中国家。

    2. Marketplaces 2.0将成为一大风投重点:在美国,当我们回首2014年时,我们会认为这一年属于那些双边市场。双边市场是指最终用户在消费的同时还对外提供服务或产品。这些市场将让全世界看到,C2C正在不断地让电子商务领域变得平坦起来,同时让行业走势具有非常强的防御性。我预计,就在三年之内,租车网站Uber、手工艺品交易网站Etsy、P2P贷款网站Lending Club和租房网站AirBnB这样一些公司的总市值将很轻松地超过eBay。这种趋势将开启“Marketplaces 2.0”时代到来的序幕。

    3. 个性化商务应用将进入成熟期:社交和移动网络将通过简单的消费应用继续向企业领域渗透。其中包括Dropbox、Evernote和Prezi等许多应用。首先是最终用户偶尔用到了它们,然后引起了企业的注意。Box、Evernotex和Evernote等“轻量级工作流程”应用将首发上市(或者在为IPO做准备),从而让规模较大的企业继续注意到它们。IT主管将在保证安全和控制IT基础设施方面遇到越来越严峻的挑战,原因是大部分数据将移动到云端。同时,随着自携设备上班(BYOD)越来越流行,数据分散度以及安全复杂性将大大提高。

    4. EduTech和MOOC将冲击传统教育行业:多年来,虽然教育市场的规模非常庞大,但对教育领域的投资总是不能带来高额回报,这一直让风投人士感到困惑。不过,最近几年的情况已经证明,新技术对教育行业的冲击确实能带来巨大商机,而且大规模退出也许就在眼前。随着Coursera、Udemy、Udacity、Minerva和Lynda等公司的出现,我预计教育科技行业将在2014年蓬勃发展。我同时认为,2014年,行动迟缓的现有传统教育机构,比如中小学和大专院校会说: “或许我们最好也应该参与进去”。斯坦福大学(Stanford)和麻省理工(MIT)等起步较早的大学已经开始积极地推出在线课程。

    5. 金砖四国的互联网行业将看到一个光明的2014年:2008年金融危机爆发后,金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)很难跟上美国的复苏步伐,也很难和硅谷生态系统实现同步发展。我认为,这种趋势在2014年将淡化,而金砖四国将再次传出一些积极的消息。几年来,这四个国家不断积累和趋于成熟的互联网行业给人们留下了非常深的印象,其中一些公司已经准备在2014年首发上市。我预计,2014年巴西足球世界杯将获得成功(巴西队甚至有可能夺得冠军),从而有助于提升巴西的整体形象。巴西一些最引人注意的互联网公司将利用这个契机,成为受益者。印度的互联网行业也在走向成熟,特别是考虑到今后几年印度的中上阶层预计将继续急剧增长。如果印度大选结果对业界有利,就可能迎来更好的发展势头。人口结构年轻以及智能手机越发普及也让印度受益。出现了一段时间的波动并受到一些干扰后,中国也将重新获得一定的增长动力。经历了几个表现平平的年份后,我们将看到中国互联网行业趋于稳定,投资者也会慢慢重新回到中国。2013年10月份去哪儿网(qunar.com)首发上市刺激了人们的投资欲望,同时预示着大型IPO即将到来。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的超大规模首发上市预计将重新激活风险投资和公共股权投资活动,同时可能带来中国所需要的转折点。

    As we end a successful 2013 for the tech/Internet venture world, I wanted to share some thoughts on what may be coming in 2014 as it relates to major global Internet & mobile trends, the venture capital funding environment, major emerging subsectors of growth, and the public markets.

    Top 8 predictions for 2014:

    1. Mobile will continue to disrupt Internet incumbents: Mobile Internet and e-commerce adoption will accelerate and surprise even the most bullish predictors. For example, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently mentioned that 48% of its Daily Active Users log in via mobile. I believe this number could reach 70%-75% by the end of 2014. Also, I predict that much of this usage and growth will come from developing countries in Asia and Latin America.

    2. Marketplaces 2.0 will thrive as a mega venture category: In the U.S., we will look back at 2014 as the year of the two-sided marketplaces. Two-sided marketplaces are ones where end users participate in supplying the service or product as well as consuming it. These marketplaces will show the world that consumer-to-consumer commerce continues to flatten the world of e-commerce, while creating very defensible business dynamics. I predict that within just three years, the market caps of companies like Uber, Etsy, Lending Club, and AirBnB will together easily surpass eBay's (EBAY) market cap. This dynamic will give way to the birth of the "Marketplaces 2.0" era.

    3. Consumerized Business Applications will come of age: The social and mobile web will continue to penetrate the enterprise via simple consumer applications. These are applications like Dropbox, Evernote, Prezi, and many others that happen to be adopted by end users first before the enterprise takes notice. Box, Evernote, Dropbox, and several other "lightweight workflow" applications will IPO (or prepare for an IPO), and this will make the bigger enterprise players continue to take notice. IT directors will be increasingly challenged to maintain security and control of their IT infrastructure given much of their data is flowing to the cloud. Also, as BYOD (bring your own device) continues to proliferate, data will continue to become much more distributed and security will get much more complex.

    4. EduTech and MOOC's will disrupt traditional education: For many years, venture capital investors have been puzzled by the fact that investments in education have not delivered large returns, even though the size of the markets are very large. However, over the last few years, education disruption via new tech has now proven a real big business, and large exits may be in the wings. With the emergence of companies like Coursera, Udemy, Udacity, Minerva, Lynda, and others, I predict edutech will thrive in 2014. I also believe that 2014 will be the year that slow-moving incumbent educational institutions like the traditional K-12 and post secondary educational institutions will say "We better get our head in the game or else." Progressive universities like Stanford and MIT are already being aggressive at creating online offerings.

    5. The BRICs Internet sector will see a bright 2014: After the financial crisis of 2008, the BRICS -- Brazil, Russian, India, and China -- struggled to keep pace with the U.S. recovery and with the Silicon Valley ecosystem. I think this trend will abate in 2014, and the BRICs will once again capture some positive headlines. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all have been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and some of those will be ready to hit the IPO market in 2014. I predict Brazil will successfully host the World Cup next year (and perhaps even win it) and this will help bolster its overall image. Several of Brazil's most interesting Internet companies will take advantage of this momentum and benefit. India's Internet sector is also coming of age, especially when considering the fact that India's upper and middle class are predicted to continue to grow dramatically in the coming years. Pro-business election results in India could also bolster momentum. India also benefits from a young population with increasing access to smartphones. China will also regain some momentum after a period of stumbles and some distrust. After several mediocre years for the Chinese Internet sector, we will see stabilization and investors will begin to reinvest slowly back into China. Qunar's (QUNR) IPO in October was an appetizer, and a leading indicator of the big meal to come. The upcoming mega-IPO of Alibaba is expected to reignite venture and public equity activity and could trigger a watershed event that China needs.

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