意大利是时候跟贝卢斯科尼说再见了

    西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼可能会遭到罢免，意大利政府也将随之瓦解，但对意大利来说，这也许并不算一件坏事。虽然这样的潜在政治乱局所带来的不确定性令市场紧张不安，但实际上，目前的左右翼联合政府已经功能失调得一塌糊涂，必须退下来。如果它继续执政，意大利就会搭上破产和财政违约的直飞航班。

    意大利滑稽的政客们解决不了这个国家的问题，这一点显而易见。针对所有这些困境，最佳的方案将是恢复由技术专家牵头的政府，如2012年的那一届政府。因为它能够促成许多迫切需要实施的改革，把国家停滞的经济拉回复苏的道路。最坏的情况是让意大利再经历一次选举，再选出一届陷入僵局的政府。这很容易让投资者绝望，从而再一次从意大利债市撤资。光这一点就足以让休眠的欧洲主权债务危机卷土重来，而这个危机仍然是欧元完整性和世界经济稳定性的主要威胁。

    意大利的左右翼联合政府产生于上次选举的政治乱局中。由总理恩里克•莱塔的左翼民主党领导的政府令意大利政治观察人士感到失望，他们原本希望他能继续落实由马里奥•蒙蒂领导的前一届技术专家型政府所提出的改革措施。

    但莱塔和西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼的右倾自由人民党（PDL）之间脆弱的联盟正摇摇欲坠，使欧债投资者颇受惊吓。上周，莱塔所在党的意大利立法者开始了诉讼程序，以期从参议院罢免贝卢斯科尼。贝卢斯科尼上个月被一家法院裁定犯有逃税罪。至于是否应该禁止贝卢斯科尼从政，法院没有做决定，而是把球踢回给了参议院。

    对意大利政坛而言，罢免贝此斯科尼会是一个积极的改变。在意大利现在面临的经济烂摊子背后，一个主要的原因是贝此斯科尼在过去的10年里的不作为和政治迎合。罢免他就能解放意大利，让它翻过政治史上这黑暗的一章。

    但由于贝卢斯科尼的政党仍是莱塔的左右翼联合政府里的关键一环，他现在离开起码会在短期内加重不确定性、导致意大利债务投资者面临的风险上升。因为如果参议院投票同意罢免这位76岁的亿万富翁，贝卢斯科尼的政党很可能退出目前的政府。这将使意大利政府顷刻瓦解，导致政乱和新一轮选举，更加有损于意大利经济的稳定性。

    鉴于所有这些考量，就意大利目前的状况而言，让贝卢斯科尼留在政坛似乎成了最佳选项。可是，这么做也极度缺乏远见。自从去年春天联合政府成形以来，贝卢斯科尼就不配合执政党的工作，使他们日子特别难挨。每次提到增加税收，减少国家2万亿欧元的巨额总债务，它就威胁要退出联合政府。由于和贝卢斯科尼的右倾保守党做的魔鬼的交易，莱塔政府的一只手被绑在了背后，无法推行必要的强硬改革措施，以便让意大利经济重回正轨。

    The potential ouster of Silvio Berlusconi and subsequent collapse of the Italian government may not be such a bad thing for Italy. While the uncertainty from the resulting political chaos has the markets on edge, the fact is that the current left/right coalition government is a dysfunctional mess and needs to go. If it were to continue in power, Italy would be on a direct course to insolvency and fiscal default.

    It's clear that Italy's issues cannot be solved by its clownish politicians. The best scenario out of all this mess would be for the resurrection of a technocratic-led government, such as the one that ruled Italy throughout 2012, as it could push through much needed reforms to get the nation's stalled economy back on the road to recovery. The worst scenario is for Italy to go through another election cycle that leads to another deadlocked government. This could easily cause investors to lose hope and once again pull their money out of the Italian debt markets. That may be all that is needed to resurrect the dormant European sovereign debt crisis, which is still a major threat to the integrity of the euro and the soundness of the world economy.

    Italy's left and right coalition government was born out of the political chaos of the last election. The government led by Prime Minister Enrico Letta's leftist Democratic Party has disappointed Italian political watchers who had hoped that he would continue the reforms of the preceding technocratic government led by Mario Monti.

    But Letta's tenuous coalition with Silvio Berlusconi's right-leaning PDL party is on the brink, spooking investors in European debt. Last week, Italian lawmakers from Letta's party began proceedings to oust Berlusconi from the Senate after an Italian court found him guilty of tax evasion last month. The courts bounced the decision to the Senate as to whether or not Berlusconi would be banned from holding political office.

    Getting rid of Berlusconi would be a positive change for Italian politics. His inaction and political pandering over the last decade is one of the main reasons why Italy is in such an economic mess. His ouster would free Italy to close a dark chapter in its political history.

    But being that Berlusconi's party remains the critical link in Letta's left-right coalition government, his departure now would up the uncertainty and increase the risk for investors in Italian debt -- at least in the short term. That's because Berlusconi's party is most likely going to withdraw from the current government if the Senate votes in favor of ousting the 76-year old billionaire. This would lead to an immediate collapse of the Italian government, resulting in political chaos in Italy and the possible calling of a new election, which could be even more destabilizing for the Italian economy.

    Given all of this, it may seem that Berlusconi's presence in Italian politics is the best thing for the country right now. But that would be terribly short-sighted. Berlusconi has made life difficult for the ruling party to get anything accomplished since the coalition was formed last spring. It uses the threat of withdrawing from the coalition when it comes to raising revenue and paying down the country's massive 2 trillion euro debt pile. With one hand tied behind its back due to the devil's bargain it made with Berlusconi's right-leaning conservative party, Letta's government has been unable to take on the tough reforms needed to get Italy's economy back on track.