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保尔森:中国“农转非”影响全球

保尔森:中国“农转非”影响全球

Katie Benner 2013-08-30
五年前金融危机爆发时,美国前财政部长保尔森主导了拯救美国金融业的行动。不过退休后,他把焦点放在了中国。他正在筹建一个学会,为中国经济的可持续发展和环境保护建言献策。他认为,未来20-30年,中国将有2.5亿农村人口进入城市,这件大事对全球的经济和环境都会产生影响。

    在金融危机五周年之际,美国前财政部长汉克•保尔森为他的回忆录《峭壁边缘》(On the Brink)新做作了一篇序文。这本书按时间顺序回顾了2008年那段黑暗的日子。保尔森现年67岁。当时,手握财政大权的他肩负着一项艰巨任务,那就是在次贷危机损失波及整个金融市场的情况下挽救全球银行体系。

    为避免金融末日的出现,波尔森的重大援助行动必须获得民主党和共和党两党的共同支持,内容包括接管按揭行业巨头房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)以及实施问题资产救助计划(Troubled Asset Relief Program),后者就是(不)为众人所知的TARP。在华盛顿,就这些援助措施进行协调绝非易事,因为当时民主、共和两党的关系已经非常糟糕。就在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)申请破产前两个月,众议院民主党领袖南希•佩洛西还说时任总统的小布什“一无是处”,理由是他借批评国会来转移人们的注意力,从而掩饰自己的“无知”。雷曼兄弟破产后,接踵而至的混乱局面对两党总统候选人——巴拉克•奥巴马和约翰•麦凯恩来说都是一个巨大的烫手山芋。

    在这种紧张的政治气氛中,保尔森竭力让政客们把注意力放在拯救银行体系上。这位前高盛(Goldman Sachs)掌门人在佩洛西面前卑躬屈膝,请求后者支持TARP。他在回忆录中提到,政治削弱了他采取行动的能力,甚至是在华尔街危机愈演愈烈之际也是如此,结果导致他病倒了好几次。

    回首2008年9月15日(雷曼兄弟申请破产)后的日日夜夜,保尔森对本刊记者表示,国会让他心力交瘁,原因是“在我看来巨大的灾难显然已经近在咫尺”。但他仍对议员们两次授予财政部巨大权力表示感谢。保尔森说:“现在我已经明白,两党议员逆其政治利益而动,以及国会尽可能快地采取措施,这些都需要极大的政治勇气。”

    在这次涉及方方面面的采访中,保尔森谈到了政治在挽救金融市场以及当前经济复苏中所发挥的作用,来自房利美和房地美的巨大风险,以及还需要采取哪些措施来防止全球金融体系再次出现重大危机。

2006年你出任财政部长时华盛顿的气氛如何?

    当时的政治环境很不利,特别是在政府和民主党之间。接受这项任命前我曾对双方的隔阂感到担心——他们请了我三次,最后才说服我出马。上任时我的想法是我不会偏向任何一方,为财政部聘请工作人员时也不会考虑政治立场。

    To commemorate the five-year anniversary of the financial crisis, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has written a new prologue to his memoir On the Brink, which chronicles the dark days of 2008. As head of the Treasury, Paulson, now 67, had the herculean task of saving the global banking system when problems in the subprime mortgage market sent waves of losses to the furthest reaches of the financial markets.

    In order to prevent financial Armageddon, Paulson had to achieve bipartisan support for radical bailout plans including the takeover of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Troubled Asset Relief Program, (un)popularly known as TARP. Brokering rescue deals with Washington D.C. was no small feat given how sour relations had grown between Democrats and Republicans. Just two months before Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House, described then-president George W. Bush as "a total failure" who used criticisms of Congress to divert attention from the fact that he had "no ideas." When Lehman did go bankrupt, the ensuing chaos became a huge thorn for both presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain.

    Amid this charged political climate, Paulson fought hard to keep politicians focused on rescuing the banking system. The former head of Goldman Sachs (GS) got down on one knee and begged Pelosi to support TARP. And in his memoir he mentions getting physically ill more than once as politics slowed down his ability to act, even while Wall Street's meltdown gained momentum.

    Looking back on the days and months after September 15, 2008, Paulson tells Fortune that he was tremendously frustrated with Congress because "it was so obvious to me that we were on the brink of catastrophe." But he gives credit to lawmakers for giving broad powers to the Treasury, not once but twice. "Now I understand that it took great political courage for members of both parties to act against their own political interests and for Congress to act as fast as it did," Paulson says.

    In a wide-ranging interview, Paulson addresses the role the politics played in the financial rescue and the current recovery, the big risks posed by Fannie and Freddie, and what still needs to happen to stave off another catastrophic event in the global financial system.

What was the mood in Washington D.C. like when you arrived at Treasury in 2006?

    The political environment was poisonous, particularly between the administration and the Democrats. I was concerned about that rift before accepting the job – which I was offered three times before I was persuaded to take it – and I came in with the understanding that I wouldn't be partisan and could hire for the Treasury regardless of a person's political affiliation.  

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