科技蓝筹股缘何集体疲软

    今年七月，纳斯达克综指上涨了7%，雅虎上涨12%，苹果上涨14%，而Facebook更是上涨了48%。反观谷歌、SAP和eBay，它们基本上原地踏步。同时英特尔下跌了4%，微软下跌8%。IBM上涨2%，甲骨文上涨5%，涨幅都算不错，但是仍然没有跑赢市场。不过亚马逊倒是上涨了9%。

    投资者们可以从上个月学到什么？那就是在筛选数据的时候，最好记得对于一个收益季度来说，投资者的感知和企业的业绩表现同样重要。某家公司的股价可能增长得很猛，但是只要增长率达不到预期，股值就可能受损。同样，就算股价可能正在下跌，但是如果你证明它有好转的势头，股值就会回升。苹果的股价真的那么悲观吗？可能不是这样。谷歌的股价真的那么坚挺吗？时间会证明。

    也就是说，长期趋势的因素还在影响着市场。虽然创新是科技板块增长的一个巨大推手，但它也会损害科技企业在创新早期阶段的很多收益和市值。所以谷歌才会在移动上表现平平，而Facebook却在增长。雅虎虽然自己搞得很差，但是它的阿里巴巴等亚洲资产却在崛起。如果你是PC、平板电脑或是智能手机的制造厂商，那么现在你只好一边积极自保，一边期待能早日搞出些新技术。

    季度收益的起起伏伏很正常——虽然有的公司的数据让人跌破眼镜，但它只在短期有意义，因此我们最好把眼光放长远。对于科技板块，华尔街已经作出了清晰的声明：老牌公司的利润只会越来越低，而新锐公司则在通过它们的利润搅局。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    During July, a month when the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 7%, Yahoo is up 12%, Apple is up 14%, and Facebook is up 48%. And other big-cap tech names? Google, SAP, and eBay are largely unchanged. Intel is down 4%, and Microsoft is down 8%. IBM is up 2%, and Oracle 5%, both modest while still underperforming the market. Amazon, however, is up 9%.

    What can investors learn from this past month? In sifting through the data, it helps to remember that earnings season is as much about perception as it is about performance. You can grow wildly, but if you don't grow as expected, your stock can get hurt. You can be in a slump, but if you're proving things are turning around, your stock can rally. Is Apple really so bad off? Maybe not. Is Google really that good? Time will tell.

    That said, there are clear long-term trends at work here. Even as innovation is the driver for much of growth in technology, it's displacing a lot of the revenue and market value alike of an earlier generation of tech companies. So Google is so-so in mobile, while Facebook is growing. Yahoo is blah on its own, while its Asian properties like Alibaba are surging. And if you're making hardware like PCs, tablets, or smartphones, the best you can hope for right now is to tread water until something better comes along.

    Quarterly earnings can be a bumpy ride -- a one-time surprise can be meaningful in the short-term -- but it always helps to keep an eye on the long term. In the technology sector, Wall Street is making a clear statement: The older companies are weighted down by ，tradition, while the new is disrupting the old guard out of its profits.