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欧元可能不是拉脱维亚的福星

欧元可能不是拉脱维亚的福星

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-06-08
最近,欧洲央行同意拉脱维亚加入欧盟。这个波罗的海小国有望成为欧盟第18个成员国。经过漫长的等待,它的入欧征程终于取得了新的进展。不过,成为欧盟成员国对它可能弊大于利。

    即便欧元区债务问题繁多,一些国家还是想加入这个集团。

    本周,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)同意波罗的海小国拉脱维亚加盟欧元区,成为欧盟第18个成员国。消息一出,拉脱维亚政府上下一片欢腾。事实上,凡是有意宣布欧元为本国官方货币的,无论是哪个国家,或许都能够说明该国政府已经重拾信心,认为欧元区会存续下去。不过拉脱维亚可能是在自找麻烦,得不偿失。

    拉脱维亚走了很长一段路才等到今天。2009年正值全球金融危机肆虐之际,拉脱维亚国内生产总值大幅萎缩约20%。但由于获得欧盟(European Union)和国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)提供的101亿美元紧急援助,该国经济形势自此出现转机。拉脱维亚还大幅削减预算赤字,削减政府支出,并加大了征税力度。这些举措无不利于拉脱维亚满足《马斯特里赫特条约》(Maastricht Treaty)所规定的财政要求,从而获得资格,最终得以名正言顺地加入世界头号货币联盟。

    尽管欧元给西班牙和希腊等国带来了种种棘手问题,加入欧元区对于拉脱维亚而言似乎是顺理成章的下一步。毕竟,也正如拉脱维亚总理瓦尔吉斯•东布罗夫斯基斯所说,该国施行拉特(拉脱维亚法定货币——译注)盯住欧元的汇率制已达10年之久。而且有多达90%的拉脱维亚私人债和公司债均以欧元计值。

    拉脱维亚并不是唯一对欧元相关困境视而不见的国家。2011年,爱沙尼亚宣布加入欧元区。该国总统托马斯•亨德里克•伊尔韦斯最近表示,欧元很好,既利于爱沙尼亚经济发展,又提振了投资者信心。另一个波罗的海国家立陶宛计划于2015效仿拉脱维亚加盟欧元区。

    较之欧元区其他多数国家,拉脱维亚与爱沙尼亚及立陶宛一样都属于较为贫穷的小国。诚然,加入欧元区会带来各种经济便利。除此之外,加入欧元区对于成员国之间的商品及服务贸易而言,不但容易许多,而且成本更低。不过对于拉脱维亚政府来说,启用欧元作为本币主要是出于政治考虑,而非经济因素。

    Despite all the eurozone's debt problems, some still want to be a part of it.

    This week, the government of Latvia cheered when the European Central Bank gave the tiny Baltic state a nod to become the 18th member of the eurozone. The fact that any country wants to call the euro its official tender might signal renewed faith that the currency zone will survive, but Latvia may also be in for more trouble than membership is worth.

    Latvia has come a long way, however: In 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the country's GDP shrank sharply by some 20%. It also received a $10.1 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, but Latvia has since turned its economy around. The country has aggressively reduced its budget deficit, cut government spending, and raised taxes. All this helped Latvia fulfill the financial requirements of the Maastricht Treaty, which effectively deems it fit to join the world's biggest currency union.

    The euro seemed like the natural next step, regardless of all the troubles the currency has brought countries like Spain and Greece. After all, as Latvia Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis has said, the lats has been pegged to the euro for 10 years. And as much as 90% of Latvia's private and corporate debt are already in euros.

    Latvia isn't the only country overlooking the euro's troubles. In 2011, Estonia adopted the single currency; its President Toomas Hedrik Ilves recently said the euro is a "great currency" that has benefitted the economy and boosted investors' confidence. Lithuania, the third Baltic state, plans to follow in 2015.

    Like Estonia and Lithuania, Latvia is a relatively small and poor country compared with most of the rest of the currency zone. True, all kinds of economic perks come with joining the euro; among other things, it essentially makes it easier and less costly for a member to trade goods and services with other members. But for Latvia's government, getting to call the euro its home currency has more to do with politics than economics.

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