投资者质疑西班牙经济数据造假

    上周初，西班牙一家银行的股票发行交易失利，预示着西班牙经济将继续面临困境，而且很有可能波及整个欧盟。为了补充已所剩无几的资本金，已被收归国有的班基亚银行（Bankia）发行了115亿新股，结果该行股价在上周二应声重挫21%。由于机构投资者抛售班基亚股票，它的股价在之前一周已经暴跌了50%，加上上周的下挫，无疑是雪上加霜。自2011年组建以来，班基亚银行股价已经累计下跌八成。

    西班牙政府没料到班基亚的配股交易结果这么糟糕——事实上，它下令银行走这一步是希望这个举措能使人们对遭受重创的西班牙银行体系恢复信心。结果不仅搞砸了，还促使华尔街质疑西班牙银行系统的真实状况和西班牙整体经济形势。

    市场原本以为西班牙经济正在从大衰退中触底反弹，由此看来它的实际经济状况可能比市场预期糟糕的多。事实上，这个判断导致投资者和分析师们开始公开质疑西班牙政府所公布经济数据的真实性。一旦银行或政府被发现存在任何捏造数据的行为，那么，无论之前市场曾对西班牙或是陷入困境的其他欧洲国家的国债抱有多大的信心，它都将因此而荡然无存，甚至很可能引发对欧洲主权债务的新一轮毁坏性攻击——这一次或许给欧元致命一击。

    西班牙在动荡不堪、无休无止的欧债危机中似乎度过了一段悠闲的假期。今年市场主要的担忧集中在塞浦路斯和它垮掉的银行系统，以及意大利紊乱的政局。那段时间里，西班牙能够以相对较低的利率发行大量的长期国债——西班牙10年期国债收益率在5月份降至4%以下，是2010年以来首次来到这个水平。它让政府能够继续以低利率筹借足够的现金，支撑堆积如山的债务负担。

    由马里亚诺•拉霍伊领导的西班牙保守政府试图通过控制开支以平衡国家预算。西班牙政府告诉民众，政府已经把预算赤字减少到了只占GDP的7%的水平，比2009年的11.2%大有下降。此外，政府还裁撤了近40万个公务员职位，还把人力成本压缩到了2005年的水平。西班牙经常项目和资本项目15年来第一次实现了盈余，总体贸易也在40年内首次实现了顺差。虽然政府数据显示去年第四季度的GDP仍在收缩，环比下跌了0.5%，但市场认为情况并不是很糟糕。

    从西班牙政府数据传递的相对乐观的经济前景来看，会出现班基亚银行配股交易惨败这么离谱的局面实在蹊跷。也许班基亚银行是个例外，也就是说，它可能未能很好地反映出西班牙整体经济恢复的状况。但这家银行拥有全国10%的存款和10%的抵押贷款，鉴于他的规模，很难让人相信这种可能性。

    对于这次股票发行交易受挫，更可信的解释是，西班牙的经济没有政府所说的那么好。

    为了更取信于投资者，银行往往会刻意少报坏账损失，它们在这方面声名狼藉。例如，2008-2012年期间，尽管全国失业率从10%上升到了25%，西班牙各银行公布的贷款平均净损失率却只有3%。根据银行贷款损失率和失业率的正相关性，很容易判断这个数据并不合理。最后，西班牙各大银行被迫坦白，承认它们存在一大批不良资产，最后才获得了去年的紧急救助。

    A disastrous share offering in Madrid earlier this week portends continued economic trouble for Spain and, quite possibly, for the European Union. Shares of Bankia, the nationalized Spanish lender, fell by as much as 21% Tuesday as the bank issued 11.5 billion new shares in a bid to boost the bank's depleted capital base. The drop added to losses sustained last week when institutional investors sent Bankia's share price down by a whopping 50%. Overall, the bank's shares have lost 80% of their value since it was formed in 2011.

    The Bankia share sale wasn't supposed to go so terribly wrong -- indeed, the government, which ordered the move, thought it would evoke confidence in the badly-damaged Spanish banking system. Instead, the Bankia bungle has raised new questions on Wall Street as to the true state of the Spanish banking system, as well as Spain's overall economic trajectory.

    Thought to be bottoming out from a terrible recession, Spain may actually be in far worse shape than the market believed. So much so, in fact, that investors and analysts have started to openly question the validity of economic data issued by the Spanish government. If it's discovered that the banks or the government have been fudging the numbers in any way, then whatever confidence the market once had in Spanish sovereign debt and that of other troubled European nations would be totally wiped away, potentially setting off another destructive round of attacks against European sovereign debt -- one that might ultimately prove fatal to the euro.

    Spain has enjoyed a bit of a holiday of sorts from the tumultuous and seemingly never-ending European debt crisis. This year the markets have been mostly concerned with Cyprus and its failed banking system and Italy with its dysfunctional political system. During that time Spain was able to issue enough long-term debt at relatively low interest rates, with the Spanish 10-year bond dipping below 4% in May for the first time since 2010, thus allowing the government to continue borrowing sufficient cash at low rates to support its mounting debt load.

    The nation's conservative government, led by Mariano Rajoy, has tried to curb spending in an attempt to balance the nation's budget. The government has told the public that it has been able to cut the nation's budget deficit to just 7% of GDP -- down from 11.2% in 2009. It has eliminated nearly 400,000 government jobs and brought labor costs down to where they were in 2005. Spain also posted a current and capital account surplus for the first time in 15 years and an overall trade surplus for the first time in 40 years. And while the government reported last quarter the nation's GDP was still contracting, falling 0.5% from the prior quarter, it wasn't seen by the markets as being terribly bad.

    Given the relatively positive economic outlook relayed by the Spanish government it is odd that the Bankia share sale would go so horribly wrong. It is possible that Bankia is a unique exception and is therefore not a great reflection of Spain's overall economic recovery. But that's hard to believe given its size, encompassing 10% of the nation's deposits and 10% of its mortgages.

    A more plausible explanation for the busted offering is that Spain's economy isn't performing as well as Spain's government is saying.

    Banks are notorious for underreporting loan losses tied with bad bets in an attempt to look healthier to investors. For example, Spanish banks maintained that their net loan losses averaged just 3% from 2008 to 2012, even as unemployment in the nation during that time rose from 10% to 25%. That simply made no sense given the positive correlation of bank loan losses with unemployment. Eventually, the Spanish banks were forced to come clean and admit they were sitting on a bunch of non-performing assets, leading to last year's bailout.