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谜一样的亚马逊股票

谜一样的亚马逊股票

Kevin Kelleher 2013-05-14
一般而言,毛利润率增加,表明一家公司业务兴旺。收入和自由现金流下降,表明该公司正在遭遇一些阻力。但亚马逊同时具有上述特征,而亚马逊发布数据和指标时又堪称小气。因此,投资者有时候只能靠猜测来决策。

    亚马逊有所改善的是另一项投资者看重的财务指标:毛利润率,它从一年前的24%增至25.6%。这意味着亚马逊的收入增速快于核心运营成本,而且过去的支出似乎已经开始发挥作用。

    究竟是哪种情况?毛利润率增加,表明亚马逊业务兴旺?还是,收入和自由现金流下降,表明该公司正在遭遇一些阻力?毫不奇怪,看涨者指向前者,看跌者指向后者。因此,亚马逊也仍然是科技行业中投资者分歧最大的公司之一。

    亚马逊正在亚洲和欧洲积极投资拓展业务,但在亚洲遭遇了强大的竞争对手阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。亚马逊还在投资原创TV节目,与Netflix和Hulu竞争。另外,它还在提升亚马逊Prime客户享有的权益,回报客户忠诚度。所有这些计划听起来都不错,有望推动未来几年更加强劲的增长。

    自从亚马逊公布业绩以来,该股股价已下滑6%,表明当前看跌者占据了上风。如果投资者能更加清晰地获悉该公司的业务经营状况,它将有助于缓解担忧并给投资者以回报。就算不能派息或提高净利润率,提供更多的数据也能让他们为自己的信心找到理由。

    亚马逊可能即将进入收入增长放缓、资本开支增加的时期。不管怎样,笃信者仍在继续持有亚马逊股票,长时期低估杰夫•贝佐斯肯定要失算。

    本文作者凯文•凯勒希尔常驻旧金山湾区,撰写金融和科技领域的文章。

    Where Amazon is gaining is in another financial metric favored by its investors: gross margin, which grew to to 25.6% from 24% a year earlier. That means Amazon's revenue is growing faster than its core operating costs, and that previous spending appears to be paying off.

    But which is it? Are rising gross margins signs that Amazon is thriving? Or are declining revenues and free cash flow signaling that it's hitting some headwinds? Unsurprisingly, the bulls are pointing to the former, and the bears are pointing to the latter. So Amazon remains one of the most divisive stocks in the tech sector.

    Amazon is spending aggressively to expand in Europe as well as Asia, where it faces aformidable competitor in Alibaba. It's investing in original TV programming to compete against Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu. And it's adding to Prime benefits to reward customer loyalty. All of these plans are sound and could lead to stronger growth in coming years.

    Amazon's stock has declined 6% since it reported its earnings, suggesting the bears have a stronger case for now. A little more clarity in how its business is working would help alleviate those fears and reward investors, if not with dividends or high net profit margins, then with more data to help them justify their good faith in the company.

    Amazon may be heading into a period of slower revenue growth and higher capital spending. Nonetheless, the company's believers are sticking with the stock, remembering that it's never paid for very long to underestimate Jeff Bezos.

    Kevin Kelleher is a writer covering finance and technology in the San Francisco Bay Area.

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