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巴菲特不担心新一轮金融危机风险

Stephen Gandel 2013年05月07日

前两天,巴菲特在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的年度股东大会上说,他并不担心会出现新一轮的金融危机,而且他依然看好美国经济。

    上周六,沃伦•巴菲特在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的年度股东大会上现场回答了投资者、记者和分析师的提问,还第一次邀请了一位做空伯克希尔-哈撒韦股票的投资者道格•卡斯上台。(“你还没说服我们卖出股票,请继续努力,”巴菲特对其中一个问题给出了这样的回答。)提问涉及的范围很广泛,从当前美国面临的挑战到美联储(Fed)的刺激性措施,甚至包括内衣(伯克希尔拥有Fruit of the Loom内衣品牌),无所不及。下面是我们收获的六点启示:

    1) 巴菲特认为,美国经济面临的最大威胁是不断增长的医疗成本。美国经济中每1美元就有17.5美分用于医疗,大大高于其他国家的8美分。巴菲特称,这是一大竞争劣势。

    2) 企业利润可能已经触顶,至少从企业利润占经济的百分比来看是这样。巴菲特称,企业状况已经显著复苏,但失业率仍处于高位。他认为,这种两极状态将继续是“公开讨论”的热点。但他认为,美国GDP将继续增长。因此不全是坏消息。

    3) 巴菲特还没用过虚拟货币交易系统Mt. Gox。巴菲特称,他对最近热议的虚拟货币比特币(Bitcoin)了解不多。巴菲特的合伙人查理•芒格称,他不相信比特币能够成为切实可行的货币。巴菲特相信,在未来一些年,美元仍将是默认的“世界货币”,或许永远都会是。巴菲特说:“在我们持有的490亿美元中,我们还没有将任何一部分转为比特币。”

    4) 巴菲特并不担心可能再次出现金融危机,但芒格可能有这样的担忧。巴菲特称,他不担心银行会不会制造下一轮泡沫或危机。他没有计划抛售所持任何一家大银行的股票,包括富国银行(Wells Fargo)、U.S. Bancorp和M&T Bancorp。但巴菲特的确表示,多德-弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank)和其他一些新的监管措施降低了银行业可能产生的回报。

    不过,芒格认为,需要加强对大银行的管控。比如,他指出,金融衍生品市场已变得过于庞大,应当从传统银行业务中剥离出来。芒格说:“大银行的财务报表很难理解。”

    5) 巴菲特仍然需要为它所做的报纸投资进行辩护。巴菲特首次表示,收购小型报纸让他获得了税收利益。

    6) 巴菲特依然看好美国。他说:“我认为,今天在美国出生的小孩将来的人生机遇将比过去任何时候都要好。”(财富中文网)

    At Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) annual meeting on Saturday, Warren Buffett fielded questions from investors, journalists, analysts and, for the first time, invited onto the stage one investor, Doug Kass, who is betting against Berkshire's stocks. ("You haven't convinced us yet to sell our stock, but keep working," said Buffett in response to one question.) The questions ranged from those about the challenges facing America, the Fed's stimulus efforts and underwear (Berkshire owns Fruit of the Loom). Here's what we learned:

    1) The biggest threat facing the U.S. economy is rising health care costs, says Buffett. The U.S. economy spends 17.5 cents of every dollar on health care, compared to 8 cents in other countries. Buffett said that's a major competitive disadvantage.

    2) Corporate profits may have peaked, at least as a percentage of the economy. Buffett says corporations have made an amazing recovery, but he notes that the unemployment rate remains high. He said he thought that dichotomy would remain a topic of "public discourse." But he thinks GDP will grow. So not all bad.

    3) Buffett hasn't been to Mt. Gox. He says doesn't know much about Bitcoin, the virtual currency that has been gotten a lot of buzz lately. Buffett's partner Charlie Munger said that he has no confidence that Bitcoin will become a viable meaningful currency. Buffett said he thinks the dollar will remain the world's default currency for years to come, perhaps forever. "Of our $49 billion, we haven't moved any of it into Bitcoins," says Buffett.

    4) Buffett isn't worried about another financial crisis, but Munger may be. Buffett says he doesn't worry about banks creating the next bubble or bust. And he says he has no plans to sell the shares he has in any of the big banks, including Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and M&T Bancorp (MTB). But Buffett does says that Dodd-Frank and other new regulations have lowered the returns banks can generate.

    Munger, though, says he thinks more should be done to reign in the big banks. For one, he thinks the market for financial derivatives has gotten too big and should be separated from traditional banks. "The financial statements of big banks are hard to understand," says Munger.

    5) Buffett still has to defend his investment in newspapers. For the first time, Buffett says he's getting a tax benefit from buying small newspapers.

    6) Buffett is still bullish on America. "I believe a baby born in America today will have better opportunities in life than ever before," says Buffett.

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