加州：中国对美投资门户

    加州吸引到的中国投资者数量已超过了美国其他任何一个州。亚洲协会（Asia Society）最新的研究报告预测，未来十年，“黄金之州”将成为中国投资进入美国的门户，主要是得益于加州繁荣的科技行业。

    这对于加州应当是个好消息。近些年加州面临的预算紧张和失业状况比美国大多数地区都更严重。今年夏季，加州有三个城市递交了破产申请，震动了债券投资者。

    虽然中国投资者并不是是要拯救加州于金融危机之中，但研究报告强调了未来加州争取所需新投资的可能性和迫切性。

    研究人员荣大聂和韩其洛分析了过去十年中国在美国的投资情况。从2000年至今，美国吸引了超过500笔中国投资，总值164亿美元。其中，加州获得了156笔，占近三分之一。加州获得投资总额13亿美元，投资交易规模不一定最大，但从获得投资的交易数量来看，加州的吸引力超过美国其他任何一个州。南加州地区以69笔投资、总额6.14亿美元占据榜首，其次分别是旧金山湾区和硅谷/南湾地区。

    中国投资者进驻加州或许并不足怪。首先，加州和中国的渊源由来己久——加州是拥有美籍华裔人口最多的州之一。加州的经济规模在美国各州中居首，令投资者将其视为进入美国其他地区的门户。更准确地说，加州是美国一些科技巨头公司的总部所在地——而科技正是很多中国私营企业希望投资的一个领域。

    分析2000年迄今的投资情况，可以看到中国将大部分资金投向了软件和IT行业，随后依次是休闲和娱乐、通讯设备与服务、电子设备和元器件以及可替代/可再生能源。特别是网游已成为中国公司投资的热门。值得一提的收购包括2011年腾讯(Tencent)收购Riot Games，2010年盛大游戏（Shanda Games）收购Mochi Media，2011年完美世界（Perfect World）收购Cryptic Studios。

    但可以肯定的是，这些投资相对于加州的经济规模来说依然微乎其微。加州详细的外国投资数据仍然无法获得。但韩其洛表示，如果加州反映的是全美趋势，可以说中国扮演的“角色非常之小”。虽然欧债危机持续，趋势或许会改变，但日本、德国、英国和加拿大等国家历来在美国吸引的外国投资领域占据着主导地位。

    荣大聂和韩其洛估计，未来十年加州可能吸引10亿至600亿美元的中国投资。

    这是相当大的一个区间，可能成真，也可能成空，结果取决于几个非常不确定的因素能否正常推进。加州的财政困境不仅会阻止中国投资者，也会让一般投资者望而却步。美国市政府几乎从来没有出现过债务违约，但斯多克顿、圣伯纳丁诺和马莫斯湖三个城市在今年夏季宣布破产，已促使评级公司对加州其他城市给予不那么乐观的前景。

    上周二，穆迪投资者服务公司（Moody's Investors Service）宣布，将审查加州30个城市的各种债券评级，包括圣莫妮卡、萨克拉门托和弗雷斯诺。在这项声明发布前，穆迪在8月份的报告中预计将出现更多的城市破产和违约，同时还警告称，一些城市可能申请破产以解决预算赤字问题，放弃对债券持有人的承诺。

    California has attracted more Chinese investors than any U.S. state. And in the coming decade, thanks largely to California's robust tech industry, the Golden State is poised to be America's gateway for Chinese investment, according to a new report by the Asia Society.

    This could be viewed as good news for California, which in recent years has dealt with strained budgets and joblessness worse than most other parts of the country. Over the summer, bond investors were stunned when three California cities filed for bankruptcy.

    While Chinese investors aren't exactly going to save California from financial malaise, the report underscores the state's potentials and its position to court new money in a place that needs it. Badly.

    Researchers Daniel Rosen and Thilo Hanemann analyzed Chinese investments into the U.S. over the past decade. Since 2000, the U.S. drew more than 500 deals worth $16.4 billion. Of that, California accounted for nearly one-third, or 156 deals. At $1.3 billion, California isn't necessarily locking in the priciest investments, but in terms of the number of deals, the state has attracted more than any U.S. state. With 69 deals totaling $614 million, southern California leads Chinese investments, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions.

    It's perhaps not all that surprising to find Chinese investors in California. For one, the state has had a long history with China -- it has one of the highest Chinese American populations in the U.S. California is also the largest economy of any U.S. state, and lead investors view it as a gateway to the rest of the country. More specifically, California is home to some of the country's biggest tech companies -- an area that many of China's private firms wish to invest in.

    A look at investments since 2000 show the Chinese poured most of their funds into software and IT, followed by leisure and entertainment, communications equipment and services, electronic equipment and components, and alternative/renewable energy. Online gaming, in particular, has grown into a popular investment for Chinese companies, with notable acquisitions including Riot Games by Tencent in 2011, Mochi Media by Shanda Games in 2010, and Cryptic Studios by Perfect World in 2011.

    To be sure, these investments are tiny compared to the size of California's economy. Detailed statistics of foreign investments in California specifically are unavailable. But if the state reflected trends nationwide, China would be "a very small player," Hanemann said. While trends might change given Europe's ongoing debt crisis, countries like Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada have historically dominated foreign investments into the U.S.

    In the coming decade, though, the Golden State could attract $1 billion to $60 billion worth of Chinese investments, Rosen and Hanemann estimate.

    That's quite a range, which may or may not play out, depending on whether a few very uncertain things go right. Consider California's troubled finances, which could deter not just Chinese investors but investors in general. Municipalities rarely ever default, but bankruptcies declared by Stockton, San Bernardino, and Mammoth Lakes over the summer have prompted credit agencies to consider a much less rosy outlook for the Golden State's other cities.

    On Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service announced it would scrutinize the ratings of various types of bonds in 30 California cities, including Santa Monica, Sacramento, and Fresno. The announcement follows an August report in which the agency predicted more municipal bankruptcies and defaults, warning that some cities are turning to bankruptcies to tackle budget deficits and abandon promises to bondholders.