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美联储狂买债券帮不了失业者

美联储狂买债券帮不了失业者

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-09-17
美联储决策层上周推出了新一轮债券购买计划——每个月增加购买债券400亿美元,而且没有给出明确的截止时间。眼下,美国经济充满了不确定性,贷款标准也在收紧。在这样的背景下,美联储的行动真的能够挽救美国经济吗?失业者真的能找到出路吗?

    美联储(Fed)继续执行量化宽松政策。

    为了给美国经济再添一把力,美联储决策层于周四推出了新一轮债券购买计划——每个月增加购买债券400亿美元。如果放在几年前,美联储此举堪称不同寻常,但自金融危机以来,狂买债券几乎已经司空见惯——或许可称之为“新的常态”。

    但略一思忖,又很难不对美联储的处方心生怀疑。它能治好病怏怏的美国经济吗?不错,经过两轮大规模的债券购买计划,美国就业市场已经有所改观。这一轮比先前两轮声势更浩大,美联储甚至没有明确计划的实施截止时间。但超低利率真的是答案吗,特别是眼下,经济充满了不确定性,贷款标准也在收紧?按揭利率可能创下历史低位,但对于很多持有“负资产”按揭或信用评级不佳的个人,首先房贷能不能获批就是个问题。

    的确,听到美联储将采取行动,美国股市已经开始反弹。周四早间大部分时间相对持平的道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)在美联储发布声明后立即跃升90点至13,423点,涨幅达到了0.7%。标准普尔500指数(The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)涨11点至1,447点,涨幅0.7%,纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)涨24点至3,138点,涨幅0.8%。

    除了华尔街,谁还能从美联储大举购买债券的举措中受益?周四,美联储同时还宣布,将维持接近于零的短期利率直至2015年年中——晚于先前宣布的2014年底。所有这些的目的都是为了让贷款(尤其是房贷)利率保持低位,刺激企业和消费者增加购买和投资。

    很多人都质疑美联储的时机。正如《纽约时报》(The New York Times)报道,美联储在总统大选前出台措施刺激疲弱的经济绝不是什么稀罕事。诚然,美联储不应参与政治。但如果它这么做,能让失业者在不久的将来更有可能找到一份体面的工作,那么几百万失业者或许也会既往不咎。但是,失业者真的能看到希望吗?

    译者:早稻米

    Yet again, the Fed-gasm continues.

    To give the U.S. economy an extra boost, Fed policymakers on Thursday launched another round of bond purchases -- an additional $40 billion worth a month. The move would have been an unusual step for the central bank years ago, but since the financial crisis, bond-shopping sprees have become almost commonplace -- a "new normal," if you will.

    After a while, it's hard not to be skeptical of the Fed's prescription for our sickly economy. True, after two rounds of large-scale bond purchases, America's job market has improved some. And this latest round is somewhat more aggressive than previous efforts as the Fed has not specified an end date to this program. But are super-low interest rates really the answer, particularly at a time brimming with economic uncertainty and tighter lending standards? Mortgage rates could hit record lows, but getting approved for a home loan in the first place is another issue for many with underwater mortgages or bad credit.

    True, stocks have rallied in response to the news that the Fed would act. After trading relatively flat for much of Thursday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped immediately following the Fed's announcement, gaining 90 points, or 0.7%, to 13,423. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 11 points, or 0.7%, to 1,447, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 24 points, or 0.8%, to 3,138.

    Beyond Wall Street, who else stands to gain from the Fed's bond-buying extravaganza? The Fed on Thursday also moved to keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015 -- longer than the late 2014 timeline it had previously announced. All this is intended to make borrowing, particularly home loans, cheap in a draw to spur businesses and consumers to buy and invest more.

    Many have questioned the Fed's timing. As The New York Times reported, it's not at all unusual for the central bank to stimulate the sluggish economy ahead of a presidential election. Admittedly, the Fed isn't supposed to be playing politics. But even if it were, it's safe to say the millions of unemployed would gladly overlook that if it meant an increased chance of landing a decent job in the near future.

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