经济学界两大泰斗激辩欧元未来

    但拜欧元所赐，南部国家和爱尔兰的融资利率与德国一样。因此，他们的融资利率可能与房价或不断上涨的产品价格的涨幅一致、甚至更低。正是这样无度的借款，而且融资利率往往低于通胀率，才推动了工资飙升。廉价融资对政府也有极大的诱惑力，使得他们能不断上调低效率的国家控股公司中的工资水平，结果进一步伤害了生产率。从2000年到2008年，意大利、西班牙、希腊和葡萄牙的政府支出占国民收入的比率平均上升了3.8个百分点，爱尔兰是12个百分点。梅尔策称：“政府已经习惯了12%的融资利率，但是突然间可以拿到3%或4%的利率，这种诱惑实在难以抵制。”

    而在德国，利率高于通胀率，政府和消费者都没有过度借贷的动力。同期，德国政府支出占国民收入的比率事实上还下降了1个百分点。

    那么，梅尔策的解决之道是什么?他认为，只有两种可能的选择，艰难降薪或本币贬值，后者至少会暂时分解欧元。他估计第一种选择行不通。“德国人说，弱国需要紧缩，”梅尔策称。“但希腊已经历了五年的缓慢增长，甚至是零增长。他们是建议再来五年吗？这些国家的人们肯定不干。因为它无异于要求再来一场大萧条。”

    梅尔策呼吁南部国家，加上爱尔兰，可能还有法国，加入另一个“软欧元”区。“软欧元相比德国和北部国家现行的欧元可以进行币值下浮，”他说。“这将恢复那些增长停滞国家的竞争力。”梅尔策说，这是让欧元以某种形式继续存在的唯一办法：“经济增长时，更容易进行改革。”在梅尔策的分析中，南部国家可以晚些时候再加入“硬”欧元，一直等到他们改革了劳动力市场后再加入。

    两位泰斗谁的分析更有说服力？梅尔策的说法让人频频点头，从根本上也更让人信服。问题的核心确实是竞争力因素。“结构问题，僵化的劳动力市场，在欧元时代并未发生改变，”另一位杰出的经济学家、卡内基国际和平研究院（Carnegie Endowment）的尤里•达杜什表示。“欧元使（这些国家）无法通过贬值打破僵化，同时还导致了竞争力的丧失。”确实，在欧元引入前，几十年来欧洲从来没有出现过主权债务危机。本币贬值是意大利、西班牙提升竞争力的工具。欧元令这一工具丧失，从而引发了历史性的危机。

    但是梅尔策的解决方案也存在一个问题：南部国家真的会进行必要的改革，然后在未来一些年里再重新加入欧元吗？如果是，蒙代尔的梦想或许最终还是可以实现。如果不是，他们保留软欧元（不管最终叫什么名字）的话日子可能更好过一些。

    眼下，辛纳屈的另一首歌——《梦想留给未来》（Put Your Dreams Away (for Another Day)）或许更适合蒙代尔来演唱。

    译者：早稻米

    But the southern countries and Ireland could borrow at the same rates as Germany, courtesy of the euro. Hence, they could load on debt at rates the same, or even lower, than the appreciation in their homes or ever-rising prices of their products. It was that excessive borrowing, frequently at costs lower than inflation, that enabled wages to explode. Cheap borrowing also proved powerfully seductive to governments, allowing them to keep raising pay in inefficient, state-controlled companies, further hitting productivity. From 2000 to 2008, government spending as a share of national income grew by an average of 3.8 percentage points in Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, and 12 points in Ireland. Says Meltzer: "It doesn't help when the government is used to borrowing at 12% and suddenly it can borrow at 3% or 4%."

    In Germany, where interest rates dwarfed inflation, giving neither the government nor consumers an incentive to borrow excessively, state spending actually dropped one point over the same period.

    So what's Meltzer's solution? He sees only two possibilities, a policy of grinding wage reductions, or devaluation that would at least temporarily dismantle the euro. The first option, he reckons, won't work. "The Germans say the weaker countries need austerity," says Meltzer. "But Greece has gone through five years of slow or no growth. Are they recommending five more years? The people of these countries won't accept it. They're asking for another Great Depression."

    Instead, Meltzer is advocating that southern countries, plus Ireland and perhaps France, join a separate, "soft-euro" area. "The soft euro would float down in value versus the current euro in Germany and the northern countries," he says. "That would restore the competitiveness of the nations that can't grow today." For Meltzer, it's the only way to keep the euro in any form. "It's easier to make reforms when the economies are growing," he adds. In Meltzer's scenario, the southern countries could rejoin the "hard" euro later, once they've reformed their labor markets.

    Which of these two legends makes the stronger case? The nod must go to Meltzer. The reason is fundamental. The heart of the problem is indeed the competitiveness issue. "The structural problems, the rigidity of the labor markets, didn't change in the euro era," says another outstanding economist, Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment. "The euro just made it impossible to deal with the rigidities by devaluing. That robbed countries of their competitiveness." Indeed, Europe never had a sovereign debt crisis in the decades before the euro was introduced. The tool of devaluation was a sign of weakness in an Italy or Spain, but it's the euro, by removing that tool, that's caused an historic upheaval.

    The question surrounding Meltzer's solution in whether the southern countries will actually make the reforms necessary to rejoin the euro in years to come. If so, Mundell's dream might eventually materialize. If not, they're far better off keeping the soft euro, whatever name is finally chosen.

    Another Sinatra tune might be a better refrain for Mundell, "Put Your Dreams Away (for Another Day)."