欧债沉疴还需猛药

    那么，欧元区危机即将终结？不可能！此类会议后市场通常都会反弹，然而，一旦触及现实，就只有再度下跌一种可能。此次峰会达成的决议其实没什么了不起，而且十分短视。就像一个人用脚把身边的火踩灭，而不是抓起水管将烈焰扑灭。

    公平地说，上周五达成的一些决议能对危机产生一些正面影响，包括这样西班牙就不必背很多债来拯救其陷入困境的银行业。问题是这段蜜月期能持续多久？疲弱的经济令西班牙依然很难吸引长期投资。西班牙有25%的失业率，如果不解决，其关键债券收益率将被无限期抬高。而且，有些决议可能还会带来意想不到的后果。比方说，下调救助基金债券的还款优先级，必将损害其信用评级，可能导致收益率上升以及救助资金加速耗尽。

    几周来欧盟领导人们一直暗示，此次峰会（第十九次）不会是又一次入院初检。他们将认真对待并开始探讨30个月来严重危及欧洲经济的结构性问题。结果这些讨论并未发生。既没有像德国主张的一样，达成协议在整个欧元区构建一个更紧密的财政联盟，也没有像法国提议的一样，协商发行共同债务工具（欧元债券）。只是含糊地承诺要对这两大问题进行研究。但研究结果要到10月份才能出来，也可能到那时依然没有完成。

    那么，下一步是什么？现在需要由债券市场来推动欧盟领导人，别再耽于现状，行动起来。虽然西班牙和意大利的国债收益率已经下降，但鉴于两国经济疲弱，几乎可以肯定它们的国债收益率必会反弹。这场危机的凶险在于危机并不局于一地，随时可能会以种种原因在不同的国家爆发。随着法国即将实施很多社会主义政策，市场随时可能向法国发难。债务/GDP比率为90%的德国也非天使。如果投资者开始感到欧元区形势无望，别说西班牙，就算是德国国债可能也难以独善其身。

    译者：早稻米

    So is the eurozone crisis at an end? Not a chance. The market usually rallies hard following one of these conferences only to fall back once reality sinks in. The agreements struck at the conference were not terribly impressive and were very short-sighted. It is similar to a person who chooses to stomp out the fire around their feet instead of grabbing the hose to douse the raging inferno headed their way.

    To be fair, some of the resolutions reached on Friday could have a positive impact on the crisis, such as saving Spain from having to take on a lot of debt to save its crippled banks. The question is -- how long can this honeymoon last? Spain's weak economy will continue to make long-term investing in the country problematic. With 25% unemployment, Spain's key bond yields will be elevated indefinitely if not addressed. Furthermore, some of the resolutions could have some unintended consequences. For example, by downgrading the bailout bond's seniority, EU leaders are jeopardizing its credit rating, which could push up yields and drain the fund at a faster clip.

    EU leaders hinted for weeks that this latest summit -- number 19 -- wouldn't just be another triage session. It would be here where EU leaders really got serious and began discussing the structural issues that has paralyzed Europe's economy for 30 months and counting. But those discussions didn't happen. There was no agreement to form a closer fiscal union across the eurozone, as championed by Germany, nor was their talk about issuing a common debt instrument (Eurobonds), as championed by France. There were some vague promises made to construct a study on both of these major issues, but it wouldn't be ready until October. The Eurozone may not make it till then.

    So what's next on the agenda? It's now up to the bond market to push EU leaders out of their complacency and into action. While yields have fallen on Spanish and Italian bonds, they will almost certainly pop back up due to their weak economies. But this crisis is dangerous as the market has shown that it can skip around and attack different countries at different times for any number of reasons. With France about to implement a number of socialist policies, the market could turn on Paris in a flash. Germany, with its 90% debt-to-GDP ratio, is no angel, either. If investors begin to feel that the Eurozone situation is hopeless, forget Spain, not even the German Bund will be safe from attack.