印度经济放缓却成为跨国公司投资热点

    印度是世界上增长最快的经济体之一。但奇怪的是，就在印度经济增速目前明显放缓之际，可口可乐和宜家本周却在该国消费者身上豪赌数十亿美元。

    在未来的几年里，世界上最大的软饮料生产商可口可乐及其在印度的合作伙伴将斥资50亿美元，扩大销售渠道并提高产能，以满足印度不断增长的市场需求。在此之前，世界上最大的家具制造商宜家（Ikea）以19亿美元的投资进军印度。该公司预计在未来15至20年内在印度开设25家门店。

    的确，这些投资承诺可能会缓解印度政府决策者目前所面临的压力，他们近来一直在设法提振不断趋弱的外国投资者情绪，因为印度目前的经济增长不再像以前那般迅猛了。在截至3月31日的财政年度里，印度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长6.5％，这样的经济增速在近10年里最慢。诸如制造业、采矿业及农业等部门的表现不佳，从而使外界对印度经济产生了新的忧虑情绪。

    此外，这两笔投资的到来，正值印度卢比兑美元汇率已大幅下滑。因此，这使得一些在印度设有分支机构的外资企业严重受挫，因为他们汇回本国的美元资金缩水了，而这致使他们的盈利下降。

    但可口可乐和宜家远远没有那么担忧。从长期来看，印度的经济规模令各大跨国公司难以忽略。其中有几个原因：印度拥有12亿人口，是世界上第二人口大国；其中产阶层人数正迅速增长；即使印度经济增速放缓至6.5％，其经济看上去也仍然远远好于许多发达国家，因为欧洲部分国家正在应对目前继续发酵着的债务危机，而美国经济增速在过去10年里每年平均仅为1.6％左右。

    从更广泛的角度来看，最近的这些投资证明印度拥有或许更为重要的吸引力：对公开市场改革的响应。

    宜家之所以有可能进入印度，正是由于该国去年的一项政策变化。这项新政策允许跨国零售商100%全资持有其在印度开设的企业。在此之前，单一品牌零售商只能在与印度当地公司组成的合资企业中持有51％的股份。布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）驻孟买的非常驻高级研究员尤尔吉特•帕特尔（Urjit Patel）认为，这个变化相当重要，因为它可以使印度这个世界上最后一个规模浩大的消费者市场向许多之前被拒之门外的大型跨国零售商开放，

    可口可乐则是另一个例子。这家世界上最大的软饮料生产商在印度拥有一段跌宕起伏的历史。可口可乐最初于1955年开始在印度销售其产品，但在1977年，当印度政府改变监管法规，转而要求跨国公司与当地公司建立合资公司，并交出其产品的秘密配方时，可口可乐撤离了印度。在1993年印度实施经济自由化（其中包括改变相关法规，允许跨国公司在印度设有全资子公司）之后，可口可乐重返印度。自那以后，该公司一直都特别看好印度，而且自返回印度以来已在那里投资了大约20亿美元。

    显然，推动印度经济增长将不仅仅是该国不断增长的人口以及民众不断增加的收入。对于许多跨国公司而言，印度的官僚政府以及变化莫测的市场法规使他们在印度的投资成为了一种赌博。霍尼韦尔首席执行官戴夫•柯特（Dave Cote，中文名：高德威）在今年1月访问《财富》杂志期间表示：“我没有数学来支持这个观点，但我一直觉得，印度政府的官僚问题每年使得GDP增速损失了三个百分点，但我对印度很感兴趣。”

    This week, Coca-Cola (KO) and Ikea bet billions of dollars on India's consumers – curiously enough, at a time when growth across one of the world's fastest-growing economies has markedly slowed.

    Over the next several years, Coca-Cola, the world's biggest soft drink maker, and its local partners will spend $5 billion to expand distribution and add capacity to meet rising demand. This follows a move by Ikea, the world's largest furniture maker, to enter India with a $1.9 billion investment. It expects to open 25 stores there over the next 15 to 20 years.

    Indeed, the commitments will probably take some pressures off of New Delhi policymakers, who've been trying to boost faltering foreign investor sentiment, as India's economy hasn't been growing as fast as it once did. For the fiscal year ended March 31, GDP grew 6.5%, the slowest pace in almost a decade. Sectors such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture did poorly, raising new concerns about the economy.

    The investments also come as India's currency, the rupee, has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar. Consequently, this has frustrated some foreign businesses with units in India, since the money they repatriate in dollars is worth less and that puts a dent on earnings.

    But Coke and Ikea aren't nearly as dismayed. Looking long-term, India's economy is too hard for the biggest companies to ignore. A few reasons: With 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second-most populous country; a rapidly growing middle class; and even with slower growth at 6.5%, India's economy looks far better than much of the developed world as parts of Europe struggles with an ongoing debt crisis and the U.S. economy has grown at an average of about 1.6% over the past 10 years.

    More broadly, the latest investments illustrate what's perhaps a bigger draw: a response to open-market reforms.

    Ikea's entrance into India was made possible by a policy change last year that allows some retailers to own 100% of their Indian businesses. Before, single-brand retailers were allowed to own only 51% of a partnership with an Indian company. The change is significant, since it could open India, one of the last big consumer markets of the world, to many of the biggest retailers that were previously shut out, said Urjit Patel, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution based in Mumbai.

    Coke is another example. The world's largest soft drink maker has had a turbulent history in the country. It first began selling its products in India in 1955, but left in 1977 when government regulations changed and required company to have a local partner and hand over its secret ingredients. Coke returned in 1993 after India liberalized its economy, which included changing rules allowing for wholly owned subsidiaries. Since then, the company has been particularly bullish on India, having spent some $2 billion since it returned.

    Clearly what will drive India's growth won't just be its growing population and rising incomes. India's bureaucratic government and unpredictable market regulations have been a gamble for many companies. At a visit to Fortune in January, Honeywell CEO Dave Cote said: "I have no math to support this, but I have always felt that just government bureaucracy cost India three GDP points a year. And I am a fan of the country."